Areas focused on below include; Minnesota,Iowa,Wisconsin and Michigan (including the UP).

When used, the following regions pertain to;

NORTH- MN,WI - North of 45 degrees latitude. (also the Upper Peninsula of Michigan).

SOUTH- MN,WI, - south of 45 degrees latitude. IOWA.

EAST- Lower Michigan.

WEST- MN and Iowa west of -95 degrees longitude.

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-- Final  WINTER OUTLOOK posted in Long Range-----  11/21

     SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS-- UPDATED FOR Friday, NOVEMBER 20TH at 8:00pm---  

Rather tranquil weather region wide for several days has led to the formation of haze and mist  in many areas. Dense Fog will be common once again tonight in many areas and most of S.Wis has been put in a advisory. Saturday will once again be extremely mild for late November will temps mainly in the 50's region wide thou a few 60's in Southwest MN and Northwest IA cannot be ruled out . By late in the day, low clouds and drizzle will move in from the west turning to light rain on Sunday/Monday for parts of MN,IA and WI. Most areas from this weak system will have less than .10 of inch of rainfall. Attention then turns to a rather dramatic cool down from Tuesday onward as seasonal adjustment in the weather pattern starts to take shape. Temps will be more like their seasonal norms ,, but 20-25 degrees cooler than previously experienced over the wk-end. Wednesday brings  the first decent chance of accumulating snow in weeks for mainly  the North. General amounts of 1-3" will be common. Temps look to remain  near normal right through Thanksgiving.

   Possibility of accumulating snow (especially in the North and then in the East) Wednesday and Thanksgiving.  .  See long range for extended outlook.

Looking more like winter in the long range. Several chances of accumulating snowfall in an active period especially the first 10 days of December. Temps look to go below normal for the first time in nearly month region wide around DEC 1st.  

                                     Final Winter Outlook 2009/2010   11/21

     Yes, the rumor is true. An El Nino is currently underway in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This will impact the upper midwest's weather this winter, and many outlets are predicting a warmer than avg winter and less precip based on El Nino for the upper Midwest. However, several points need to be made;

1: This Nino is currently weaker than it was forecasted to be now several months ago. If it continues to weaken, this will affect the weather in the upper midwest,, more so than most forecasters let on. In fact,  those who want a colder than normal winter in this situation actually want the El nino to increase before decreasing in the late winter  UPDATE**** 11/21  . The EL Nino is finally getting it's act together  and is currently the strongest it has been all year long. Expect this trend to continue with the weakening phase starting sometime in late Dec early Jan.

2: El Nino is just one player on the field amongst other "tools" long range forecasters use. These other factors are likely going to subdue the effects of El Nino this winter, especially if El Nino starts to weaken in mid-late winter.

3: not all El Nino's are the same, especially this one.  This is a reactionary Nino to last years' La nina. This El Nino is not the  driving force like they sometimes can be in the atmosphere.

4: sunspot activity is at a low point. In fact, it's starting to get a tad scary. Lack of sunspots means the sun is emitting  about .1 of 1% less energy. It makes a difference, especially coupled with all the other "tools".

Based on other measured teleconnections across the world along with the idea of this El Nino weakening in the dead winter is starting to make the forecast for the Upper Midwest more clear for the winter months. The fact that  the El Nino has increased in intensity actually gives credence to a prediction  of it fading as mentioned above when factoring in the other teleconnections around the world.

Winter Outlook (DEC-FEB). Geographic descriptions are located above in the short range segment.

MN/WISC  North- North of 45 degress latitude. South- South of 45 degrees latitude.

Dec-Feb deviation from normal in the North--+1F.  South -1.  SE WI has the highest chance of above normal snowfall. Other areas should be near normal (40" in the South to near 100" in the Arrorhead of MN.) % of normal snowfall-- SE WIS 100-120%  all other areas- 85-100%. 

 IA-  temp -2   snow- % of normal snowfall 90-110%

Mich  temp -3 snow-% of normal snowfall  105-125%  (125% in the extreme south and east)

Tidbits

December right now looks like it has a strong chance to be significantly colder than normal region wide.

Lake effect snows should be down a little due to the fact that major arctic  outbreaks are not likely until later in the winter after the lakes have cooled. (the warm water enhances lake effect).

Last half of JAN and especially FEB could be very cold ( -5F  to -10F below normals ) especially in the South and East. Snowfall looks to be high in the same areas.  Things are trending that this cold/snowy period may have to be moved up early in the winter.

JB