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Aspen Highlands (Base: 8,040', Top: 11,675')

6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Thursday, March 18, 2010

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 21, High 46 (Highest ~ 64 in 2004, Lowest ~ 02 in 1988)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elevation for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 11, High 39 (Highest ~ 58 in 2004, Lowest ~ (-)11 in 1988)
-At 12,500 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in Colorado); Low 02 , High 27

:::SNOW BEGINS THIS EVENING:::

SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 18th at 6:27am...Today and Friday -> SNOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT, MORE SNOW ON A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER FRIDAY; A low pressure system drops southeast out of ID/ MT and across Utah and southwest Colorado (carves somewhat south toward southwest CO and the 4-corners), with developing snow showers this evening/ overnight as this system approaches. On Friday snow continues while the storm scoots across southern CO and northern NM. We have a westerly flow aloft and across the mountains as this system begins moving in tonight, with light snow in all areas. Jet stream energy is expected to stay to the west and south, with some upper level instability on Friday, plus a northeasterly flow of winds across the mountains on Friday. The strong looking Canadian cold front that passes through on Friday will add some lifting mechanism for snow production across all areas. The amount of projected over-land travel of this storm makes us think that moisture will be limited, however latest guidance suggests 1/2" or so of precipitable water in cold air. We expect moderate snow totals overall, with heaviest snow still east of the divide (we are evaluating all forecast details for Friday and will update as needed this morning). Snow showers mostly end Friday night/ Saturday morning.

Saturday through Monday -> BREAK BETWEEN STORMS/ PARTLY CLOUDY; Low pressure moves eastward and out on Saturday, with a slightly unsettled pattern remaining under a strong northwest oriented jet stream. Most moisture is expected to be gone with the storm, but there should be enough lingering for some snow flurries and a sun/ cloud mix at times Saturday (increased winds also). Milder but still cool on Sunday, as high pressure builds in some (not as strong and spring-like as it was in recent days). Monday is a transition day, with shifting winds due to an approaching low pressure system out of the Northwest US. Partly cloudy skies are expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday -> THE NEXT STORM MOVES IN/ SNOW; Snow develops on Tuesday as another low pressure system moves in out of the northwest. The tendency has been for storms to target southern Colorado, so we will have to watch the projected path of this system for trends. Light to moderate snowfall is likely, and heavier snow is less likely but still possible.

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM

Thursday
Mar 18, 2010

Partly cloudy through the day, with increasing clouds and ridge top winds. Skies become mostly cloudy by evening with developing light snow showers then and through overnight.

Hi 47°f / 31°f (base/top)
Lo 22°f / 18°f (base/top)

Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy through the day, with increasing clouds and ridge top winds. Skies become mostly cloudy by evening with developing light snow showers then and through overnight.

Precipitation:
Snow likely in the evening/ overnight.

Snow Potential
2 to 3 inches of snowfall in the evening/ overnight.

Wind:
S at 4 to 12mph. Winds above timberline; W at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.

Friday
Mar 19, 2010

Cloudy and steadily colder through the day, with continuing snow showers. Warmest temperatures occur in the morning, and coldest in the evening.

Hi 35°f / 20°f (base/top)
Lo 15°f / -2°f (base/top)

Sky Condition:
Cloudy and steadily colder through the day, with continuing snow showers. Warmest temperatures occur in the morning, and coldest in the evening.

Precipitation:
Snow likely.

Snow Potential
2 to 3 inches of snowfall.

Wind:
NW/ NE at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; Increasing to W at 10 to 20mph.

Saturday
Mar 20, 2010

Partly to mostly cloudy with light snow showers early, clearing to partly cloudy skies and northwest winds.

Hi 30°f / 10°f (base/top)
Lo 6°f / -10°f (base/top)

Sky Condition:
Partly to mostly cloudy with light snow showers early, clearing to partly cloudy skies and northwest winds.

Precipitation:
40% chance for snow mainly early.

Snow Potential
A trace.

Wind:
NW at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; NW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.

Sunday
Mar 21, 2010

Partly cloudy and milder with west/ northwest winds.

Hi 44°f / 24°f (base/top)
Lo 9°f / 13°f (base/top)

Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and milder with west/ northwest winds.

Precipitation:
None expected.

Snow Potential
None expected.

Wind:
Variable at 4 to 12mph. Winds above timberline; Increasing to NW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.

Monday
Mar 22, 2010

Mostly clear to partly cloudy and milder with winds becoming more southwest.

Hi 48°f / 31°f (base/top)
Lo 14°f / 15°f (base/top)

Sky Condition:
Mostly clear to partly cloudy and milder with winds becoming more southwest.

Precipitation:
None expected.

Snow Potential
None expected.

Wind:
S at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; Becoming SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.

Tuesday
Mar 23, 2010

Clouds increase and snow showers develop, continuing through overnight.

Hi 41°f / 24°f (base/top)
Lo 23°f / 14°f (base/top)

Sky Condition:
Clouds increase and snow showers develop, continuing through overnight.

Precipitation:
40% chance for snow by afternoon.

Snow Potential
2 to 4 inches of snowfall.

Wind:
SW/ NW at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; Increasing to SW/ NW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...March 23 to 26

--There is a break in weather/ snow possible after next Tuesday/ Wednesday's storm, then another shot at snow possible for the last weekend in March (27th/ 28th). Pacific storms (with snow) should move through with good frequency right into April. The rest of April still looks potentially snowy (what we mean by "snowy" - at least 1 day with snow for every 2 sunny/ no snow days).

FROM OCTOBER; This winter we expect heavier than average snowfall for southwest Colorado, from Telluride to Wolf Creek, up to Crested Butte. For Aspen, we expect slightly above average snowfall, and from Breckenridge to Winter Park we expect near to below average snowfall. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average overall, with wide variations and some extreme cold periods. CM

 



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