Aspen Mountain - Ajax (Base: 7,945', Top: 11,212')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Monday, May 12, 2008...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
OVERALL SITUATION TODAY -//> Winds increase on the upper ridges mainly, with increasing cloudiness as a fairly strong late season low pressure system approaches from the northwest US (moving through Utah with mountain snow now). Temperatures look mild today, then colder air moves in tonight. Showers (rain/ snow mix for most) and thunderstorms develop after noon as the low pressure system approaches and triggers increased instability. Snow showers develop this evening and mainly tonight as colder air blows in and clouds lower with the storm, now headed south toward Arizona/ New Mexico. Snow totals could be pretty heavy, but we are staying on the moderate side in the forecast.
Tuesday -//> Colder and cloudy with scattered snow showers as low pressure drops through, though most energy passes to the west through Eastern Utah mainly (then into AZ/ NM). Light additional snowfall is expected. Clouds and snow clear out late day/ evening.
Wednesday through Friday -//> Low pressure scoots out and we are pinned between an extremely strong and large summer-like high pressure ridge over California/ Nevada, and strong low pressure centered over the Northern Great lakes/ Ontario Canada. This spells northwest winds and below average temperatures for Colorado, with some clouds and light snow showers later Wednesday, all Thursday, and early Friday (then clearing out).
Saturday and Sunday -//> Strong high pressure ridging moves overhead, with sunny skies and warm temperatures expected. CM
Monday May 12, 2008
Hi 55°f / 38°f (base/top)
Lo 32°f / 18°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and mild with increasing west winds. Mostly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, scattered rain and upper mountain snow showers, and some gusty winds by noon onward. Moderate snow develops in the evening and overnight.
Precipitation:
Rain and higher elevation snow showers by afternoon, then snow likely by evening/ overnight.
Snow Potential
5 to 7 inches of accumulation mainly overnight (5 inches or less at the base).
Wind:
Increasing to SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph (gusts to 50mph above timberline).
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Tuesday May 13, 2008
Hi 41°f / 24°f (base/top)
Lo 30°f / 15°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly cloudy and colder with scattered snow showers through the day. Clouds and snow begin to clear out toward evening.
Precipitation:
Snow likely.
Snow Potential
1 to 2 inches of additional accumulation.
Wind:
NW/ NE at 5 to 15mph.
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Wednesday May 14, 2008
Hi 47°f / 8°c (base)
Lo 26°f / -3°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and milder with isolated snow showers at times.
Precipitation:
10% chance for snow showers.
Snow Potential
No accumulation is expected.
Wind:
Becoming NW at 5 to 15mph (gusts to 30mph above timberline).
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Thursday May 15, 2008
Hi 44°f / 7°c (base)
Lo 24°f / -4°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and cool, with some isolated snow showers at times.
Precipitation:
20% chance for snow showers.
Snow Potential
A trace.
Wind:
NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph (gusts to 45mph above timberline).
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Friday May 16, 2008
Hi 50°f / 10°c (base)
Lo 27°f / -3°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers at times.
Precipitation:
20% chance for snow showers.
Snow Potential
A trace.
Wind:
NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph (gusts to 40mph above timberline).
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Saturday May 17, 2008
Hi 53°f / 12°c (base)
Lo 28°f / -2°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
Wind:
ENE at up to 10 mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...May 18 to 21--We could see a weak disturbance break up the sunny weather next Tuesday (20th), otherwise sunny and warm weather continues through the following Saturday (24th) under strong high pressure ridging aloft. As more low pressure (weaker) affects the Northwest US (around the 24th/ 25th), the orientation of the wind flow aloft may allow some subtropical moisture to feed up from the south for daily thunderstorms in late May. CM
