6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Wednesday, May 16, 2012

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 35, High 63 (Highest ~ 78 on May 16, 1988, Lowest ~ 22 on May 15, 1985)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elev. for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 28, High 57 (Highest ~ 70 on May 16, 1996, Lowest ~ 15 on May 14, 2004)
-Approx 13,000 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in CO); Low 19, High 43

::: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS + THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/ WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY/ WINDS INCREASE, COOLER FRIDAY/ WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (MORE UPDATES COMING TODAY) :::

DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR WEDNESDAY, MAY 16th...Today --ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASED WIND-- -> A weak low pressure system pushes through, causing enough instability and moisture to allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers mainly by afternoon, and continuing through overnight as the almost completely weakened low moves through Colorado. Winds are expected to increase even outside of any thunderstorms. Some light snow is possible above 10,000 to 10,500 feet, with up to 1/4" in showers below.

Thursday --WARMER, ISOLATED SHOWERS-- -> Weak low pressure moves out on Thursday, with a stronger low pressure system approaching from the west. In the meantime, warmer temperatures are expected, along with continued breezy conditions under clearing/ partly cloudy skies. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected, but should not dominate the weather for the day.

Friday --ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, COOLER, WINDY-- -> The stronger low pressure system moves through mainly to the north, with the unstable south end of this low clipping mainly northern Colorado (including Aspen), and triggering some afternoon thunderstorms/ showers when combined with daytime heating. Cooler temperatures are expected along with windy conditions.

Saturday and Sunday --DRIER, WARMING TREND-- -> High pressure ridging aloft builds in across the Rocky Mountains, for mostly sunny skies and a warming trend. On Sunday we start to see a slight uptick in thunderstorm coverage/ chances. CM

 

Wednesday May 16, 2012 Hi 70°f / 45°f (base/top) Lo 39°f / 32°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and cooler, with increased winds. Isolated showers (possibly to 30% aerial coverage) and thunderstorms develop mainly in the afternoon, and continue in the evening/ overnight. Some snow is expected above 10,000 feet, mainly overnight. Precipitation: 40% chance for mainly afternoon showers, with 1/4" of rain in some areas. Snow Potential 1+ inches above 10,000 feet, mainly late. Wind: SW at 5-15mph, becoming SW at 10-20mph. Above timberline; W at 15-25 gusts to 35mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are expected in/ near any thunderstorm.	Thursday May 17, 2012 Hi 75°f / 52°f (base/top) Lo 38°f / 32°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and warmer, with increased winds. Isolated showers are possible at any time, and isolated thunderstorms develop in the afternoon, dissipating in the evening. Precipitation: Isolated for showers. Snow Potential A trace above 10,500 feet. Wind: SW at 10-20mph. Above timberline; SW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.	Friday May 18, 2012 Hi 69°f / 45°f (base/top) Lo 40°f / 30°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy, becoming partly to mostly cloudy and cooler, with isolated thunderstorms and showers developing in the afternoon. Winds increase also, even outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms/ showers dissipate in the evening. Precipitation: 20% chance for mainly afternoon showers. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: SW at 5-15mph, becoming SW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph. Above timberline; SW at 20-30 gusts to 45mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are expected in/ near any thunderstorm.
Saturday May 19, 2012 Hi 72°f / 47°f (base/top) Lo 34°f / 32°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Mostly clear with milder temperatures, and continued breezy conditions. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: S at 5-15mph, becoming SW at 10-20mph. Above timberline; SW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.	Sunday May 20, 2012 Hi 61°f / 16°c (base) Lo 41°f / 5°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: WNW at up to 5 mph.	Monday May 21, 2012 Hi 64°f / 18°c (base) Lo 43°f / 6°c (base) Sky Condition: Mostly Sunny Precipitation: None expected Wind: W at up to 10 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...May 22 to 25

--We may see an increase in showers/ thunderstorms after the 20th (Sunday) as the ridge axis across the Rockies shifts somewhat east, due to low pressure pushing into the northwest US (another cycle). Mid to late next week the west coast may see some late season rain and mountain snow from a Gulf of Alaska cut-off low pressure system, and this is still on track. It looks like a strong high pressure ridge may not build in, leaving lower pressures and generally unsettled weather through late May, mixed in with sunshine.

We have a "La Nada" SST pattern in place, expected to become an El Nino SST pattern this summer of 2012. An El Nino pattern often means greater than usual thunderstorm and shower activity for the summer months, and right now this is what we are expecting. The El Nino pattern may continue into the fall/ winter. CM