Beaver Creek Resort (Base: 8,100', Top: 11,440')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Wednesday, July 23, 2008PLEASE NOTE: The temperatures shown for "base" are more of a mid mountain temperature forecast. In season (October through April) we will be back to forecasting base and top temperatures.
OVERALL SITUATION TODAY -//> Activity increases for more northern I-70 resorts today as a trough moves across to the north and provides some instability. Showers and thunderstorms are likely today.
Thursday and Friday -//> A high pressure ridge builds in, centered overhead (594+dM), and this allows some drier air to begin filtering in and skies start clearing out. Warming temperatures aloft increase stability in the atmosphere also (decreasing chances for T-storms). We expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the area Thursday afternoon/ evening after a partly cloudy day, then reduced to isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
Saturday and Sunday -//> We see a gradually increasing chance for thunderstorms and showers as high pressure aloft weakens, and shifts slightly eastward as a low pressure trough moves into the Northwest US again. The trough and shift of high pressure is expected to do 2 things, cause the upper level flow to be more out of the subtropically moist southwest, and allow temperatures aloft to cool for increased instability (better chance for thunderstorms/ showers in unstable and moist air). Even with this shift though, thunderstorm chances are not in the "likely" category (60% chance or better), but we will watch. CM
Wednesday Jul 23, 2008
Hi 86°f / 30°c (base)
Lo 54°f / 12°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Continued mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms and showers, becoming isolated overnight. Heavy showers, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds are possible in any storm.
Precipitation:
Showers likely (up to 25.2 mm. | 1.00 in.)
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Increasing to SW at 10 - 20 mph. Gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
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Thursday Jul 24, 2008
Hi 86°f / 30°c (base)
Lo 51°f / 11°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the morning, just some clouds during the day, then isolated thunderstorms re-form in the afternoon. Thunderstorm activity subsides in the evening/ overnight.
Precipitation:
20% chance for showers (.51 to 2.55mm. | .02 to .10in.)
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Becoming NW at 5 - 15mph. Gusts to 50mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
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Friday Jul 25, 2008
Hi 86°f / 30°c (base)
Lo 43°f / 6°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear and warm, with some isolated thunderstorms and showers developing in the afternoon, and tapering off in the evening.
Precipitation:
10% chance for showers (up to 2.55mm. | 0.10 in.)
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Increasing to W at 10 - 20 gusts to 30mph by afternoon. Gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
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Saturday Jul 26, 2008
Hi 85°f / 29°c (base)
Lo 45°f / 7°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear to partly cloudy and warm, with isolated thunderstorms and showers developing again in the afternoon, and tapering off in the evening.
Precipitation:
20% chance for showers (1.25 to 3.8mm. | .05 to 0.15 in.)
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Variable at 4 - 12mph. Gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
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Sunday Jul 27, 2008
Hi 82°f / 28°c (base)
Lo 51°f / 11°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy, with clouds increasing and scattered thunderstorms and showers developing in the afternoon and evening. Isolated heavy showers are possible.
Precipitation:
30% chance for showers (up to 6.35 mm. | 0.25 in.)
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Variable at 4 - 12mph. Gusts to 50mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
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Monday Jul 28, 2008
Hi 82°f / 28°c (base)
Lo 51°f / 11°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms
Precipitation:
Slight Chance (20%) of rain showers
Snow Potential
Wind:
NW at up to 10 mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...July 29 to August 01-Next week we see fair chances for thunderstorms each afternoon/ evening (20-40%), as high pressure ridging is overhead to east of the area, with some moisture feeding in from the south/ southwest. We will have to watch for any tropical systems that could increase our chances for rain and thunderstorms as they get dragged into the flow aloft. Temperatures look like they will be near average to warmer than average, with humidity on the higher side. CM
