6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Wednesday, March 17, 2010

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At 6,230 feet (Tahoe City); Low 22, High 43 (Highest ~ 63 in 2007, Lowest ~ (-)2 in 1977)
-At 8,000 feet (About the base elevation of Kirkwood, "Twin Lakes"); Low 17, High 41

:::AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS:::

SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 17th at 5:23am...Today and Thursday -> Moisture overhead and some instability caused by daytime warming and a disturbance aloft are expected to cause isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area today. Small hail is possible in any storm. We expect another shot at thunderstorms tomorrow as a stronger and colder disturbance moves through out of the north. Cooler on Thursday, and snow showers are possible mainly above 8,000 feet (no accumulation is expected).

Friday through Sunday -> It looks like high pressure ridging aloft builds in and holds, with spring-like temperatures (and likely conditions) continuing.

Monday and Tuesday -> A Pacific low pressure system moves through with potential snowfall both days, but decreasing later Tuesday. The storm looks like it may move into the Pacific Northwest mainly, with the south end of the system moving through Tahoe and the surrounding region. Light to moderate snowfall is possible, but we will watch as this could change.

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM

Thursday Mar 18, 2010 Hi 51°f / 11°c (base) Lo 26°f / -3°c (base) Sky Condition: Mostly Sunny Precipitation: None expected Snow Potential Wind: NE at up to 15 mph.	Friday Mar 19, 2010 Hi 56°f / 13°c (base) Lo 24°f / -4°c (base) Sky Condition: Clear Precipitation: None expected Snow Potential Wind: NW at up to 5 mph.	Saturday Mar 20, 2010 Hi 56°f / 13°c (base) Lo 29°f / -2°c (base) Sky Condition: Mostly Sunny Precipitation: None expected Snow Potential Wind: S at up to 5 mph.
Sunday Mar 21, 2010 Hi 56°f / 13°c (base) Lo 28°f / -2°c (base) Sky Condition: Mostly Sunny Precipitation: None expected Snow Potential Wind: WSW at up to 10 mph.	Monday Mar 22, 2010 Hi 47°f / 8°c (base) Lo 22°f / -6°c (base) Sky Condition: Slight Chance of Light Snow Showers Precipitation: Slight Chance (20%) of snow Snow Potential Wind: WSW at up to 15 mph.	Tuesday Mar 23, 2010 Hi 42°f / 6°c (base) Lo 22°f / -6°c (base) Sky Condition: Slight Chance of Light Snow Showers Precipitation: Slight Chance (20%) of snow Snow Potential Wind: WNW at up to 10 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...March 23 to 26

--The last days of March, and April should be a good spring period for snow (and will be interesting) as the pattern remains unsettled 1/2 of the time (potential snow), broken up by periods of high pressure ridging (mostly sunny and milder). One thing about an El Nino year; The spring showers usually carry on well into May. Our El Nino pattern is weakening however, and many are talking about a La Nina sea surface temperature event for the next season. It is never cut and dry in the world of weather! We will watch and update as we get closer.

--WINTER 09-10' OUTLOOK FROM OCTOBER; For the Tahoe region, we expect heavier than average snowfall, with most of it from January 1st onward, though we do expect some heavy snow to start falling this month and in December. Temperatures are expected to be near average, with some wide variations and extreme cold spells. We will be adding more detail to this as we go along. CM