Kirkwood Mountain Resort (Base: 7,800', Top: 9,800')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Tuesday, May 15, 2012
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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At 6,230 feet (Tahoe City); Low 33, High 60 (Highest ~ 76 on May 16, 1987, Lowest ~ 20 on May 16, in 2011)
::: WARMER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY/ WINDY AND COOLER THURSDAY/ WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY :::
DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR TUESDAY, MAY 15th...Today --PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER-- -> On Tuesday low pressure moves through in the morning and out by afternoon, with less wind and some clouds. Cloud build-ups are expected due to continued instability in the atmosphere, and warmer temperatures.
Wednesday --SUNNY AND WARMER-- -> A ridge of high pressure builds in overhead, brief, with warmer temperatures and some late day west breezes expected due to developing low pressure to the northwest. Sunny skies are expected.
Thursday --WINDY, COOLER-- -> A stronger/ colder and more progressive low pressure system moves through with cooling and windy conditions expected. We also expect some clouds, though showers should remain to the north.
Friday through Sunday --MOSTLY SUNNY, WARMING TREND-- -> Friday starts off cool as winds die out to mostly light, as low pressure moves out and higher pressures aloft move in. Partly cloudy skies are expected. Saturday and Sunday look milder with not much wind as high pressure starts to ridge in stronger overhead. CM
Wednesday May 16, 2012
Hi 72°f / 56°f (base/top)
Lo 32°f / 41°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear and warmer with a late day wind increase. Winds increase further overnight.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Variable at 4-12mph, becoming SW at 10-20mph. Above 8,500 feet; SW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
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Thursday May 17, 2012
Hi 59°f / 44°f (base/top)
Lo 42°f / 34°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and cooler with windy conditions.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
SW at 10-20mph. Above 8,500 feet; SW at 15-25 gusts to 40mph.
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Friday May 18, 2012
Hi 63°f / 46°f (base/top)
Lo 29°f / 27°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and cool with mostly light winds.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Variable at 4-12mph. Above 8,500 feet; W at 10-20mph.
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Saturday May 19, 2012
Hi 67°f / 52°f (base/top)
Lo 32°f / 36°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear and milder with drier breezes.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Variable at 4-12mph. Above 8,500 feet; W at 10-20mph.
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Sunday May 20, 2012
Hi 62°f / 17°c (base)
Lo 41°f / 5°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mostly Sunny
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
WSW at up to 10 mph.
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Monday May 21, 2012
Hi 61°f / 16°c (base)
Lo 42°f / 6°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
SW at up to 10 mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...May 21 to 24
--Low pressure may set up over the northwest US, causing some west winds, cooling and clouds for Tahoe and the Sierra Nevada. We may even see some showers from a stronger low pressure system around the 22nd or so. This unsettled weather (clouds, cool, showers) may last off and on through the 25th or so. Righ now, the previous forecast is low confidence, as the other scenario is record breaking hot weather across the west, with 80's for Tahoe after the 25th. We will nail it down in the next update.
We have a "La Nada" SST pattern in place right now (near average sea surface temperatures). We expect to see a shift to an El Nino SST pattern this summer. Because stronger high pressure ridges tend to establish across the west during the summer in an El Nino pattern, and moisture has a more "open door" to move north without the westerly winds cutting it off, we then see more potential thunderstorms affecting the west in general. We will have to see if the El Nino is supposed to hang on into the 2012-2013 winter season, but it probably will. More to come. CM
