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Sipapu Ski Area (Base: 8,200', Top: 9,255')

6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Sunday, March 14, 2010

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-
At 8,500 feet (Red River): Low 15, High 45
(Highest ~ 65 in 2007, Lowest ~ (-)23 in 1962)
-At 9,200 feet (Near base elevation for Taos Resort); Low 16, High 41
-At 12,000 feet (Near the top elevation of some resorts); Low 07, High 31 

:::HEAVY SNOW:::

SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR SUNDAY, MARCH 14th at 11:04am...Today -> HEAVY SNOW; Low pressure drops across the southwest US, and New Mexico, with more heavy snow across northern New Mexico. Most dynamics and moisture pass close by on the way east. Our forecast totals have been increased some. An easterly flow of winds is the one factor that will work against all others in producing heavy snowfall, but all of this still makes tomorrow look pretty epic.

Monday -> SNOW, THEN CLEARING; Low pressure moves out during the day Monday, with snow showers becoming much lighter and more spotty, mixed with sun. Skies become partly cloudy later Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday -> PARTLY CLOUDY/ MOSTLY SUNNY; A high pressure ridge builds in from the west and south, with mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures. Not much wind is expected. Later Wednesday, low pressure drops into the northwest US, with high clouds increasing (the sun is usually just filtered through the high clouds, but still shining). Wednesday should be the warmest day.

Thurday and Friday -> SNOW DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY; A low pressure system moves in with a strong northwest oriented jet stream (not favorable for Taos Ski Valley), and increasing winds develop on Thursday. On Friday snow develops as the low pressure system and jet stream winds aloft help crank out some light snow. Moisture looks limited which is normal in this pattern, and most energy may be to the north this time.

Saturday and Sunday -> BREAK BETWEEN STORMS/ PARTLY CLOUDY; The pattern remains a bit unsettled as a strong large scale low pressure trough may be developing, with its axis roughly across the Rockies, and centered over Canada. This is what may kick off and extended period of frequent storms across Colorado, favoring northern resorts.

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM

Sunday
Mar 14, 2010

Thunderstorms

Hi 43°f / 6°c (base)
Lo 27°f / -3°c (base)

Sky Condition:
Thunderstorms

Precipitation:
Rain Showers definite (80%) (8.382 mm. | 0.33 in.)

Snow Potential
Expecting 0 to 1 inches of snowfall

Wind:
NE at up to 10 mph.

Monday
Mar 15, 2010

Partly Cloudy with Scattered Showers

Hi 51°f / 11°c (base)
Lo 9°f / -13°c (base)

Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy with Scattered Showers

Precipitation:
50% Chance of rain showers (2.794 mm. | 0.11 in.)

Snow Potential
Expecting 0 to 1 inches of snowfall

Wind:
NE at up to 10 mph.

Tuesday
Mar 16, 2010

Mostly Sunny

Hi 51°f / 11°c (base)
Lo 20°f / -7°c (base)

Sky Condition:
Mostly Sunny

Precipitation:
None expected

Snow Potential

Wind:
WSW at up to 10 mph.

Wednesday
Mar 17, 2010

Mostly Sunny

Hi 57°f / 14°c (base)
Lo 23°f / -5°c (base)

Sky Condition:
Mostly Sunny

Precipitation:
None expected

Snow Potential

Wind:
SW at up to 10 mph.

Thursday
Mar 18, 2010

Partly Cloudy

Hi 57°f / 14°c (base)
Lo 26°f / -3°c (base)

Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy

Precipitation:
None expected

Snow Potential

Wind:
WSW at up to 10 mph.

Friday
Mar 19, 2010

Partly Cloudy

Hi 54°f / 12°c (base)
Lo 23°f / -5°c (base)

Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy

Precipitation:
None expected

Snow Potential

Wind:
WNW at up to 15 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...March 20 to 23

--Pacific storms start moving through with frequent snow through late March, as large scale low pressure develops across Canada and affects mainly the Rockies and northern plains states. The rest of March and most of April still look potentially snowy.

FROM OCTOBER; This winter we expect heavier than average snowfall for northern New Mexico. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average overall, with wide variations and some extreme cold periods. CM



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