Taos Ski Valley (Base: 9,207', Top: 11,819')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Monday, February 8, 2010*Taos Ski Valley is a sponsor of this forecast, please thank them if you get a chance*
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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At 8,500 feet (Red River): Low 06, High 37 (Highest ~ 60 in 2003, Lowest ~ (-)28 in 1933)-At 9,500 feet (Base elevation for Taos Resort); Low 10, High 36-At 12,000 feet (Near the top elevation of some resorts); Low 03, High 28
:::POWDER, POWDER EVERYWHERE!!!/ COLDER, MORE SNOW TODAY:::SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR MONDAY, FEBRUARY 8th at 8:11am...Today -> The Pacific storm system we have been watching is moving across northern New Mexico on its way into Texas. This storm dumped a whopping 16 inches of new snow on Taos Ski Valley, and it is still snowing! It looks like TSV will be just a hair under 2 feet from this system by the time it is all over later tonight. A cold Canadian low pressure system is over the northern plains, and a cold front is pushing in toward the area out of the north. Additional light to moderate snow showers are expected through tonight under cloudy skies. We do not expect much wind. Tuesday -> Partly to mostly cloudy and cool, with increased west winds as another Pacific low pressure system, more compact, sends moisture in across New Mexico on a southwest flow aloft (mainly late day, and mostly middle and high level clouds). We do not expect snow, though we may see some flurries in the evening and overnight.
Wednesday and Thursday -> The Pacific low pressure system moves through mainly to the south, with some disturbances aloft passing over the area as a low pressure trough moves through the Rockies. This is expected to generate some light snow showers at times Wednesday into Thursday, clearing overnight Thursday. We do not expect to be socked in with clouds during this time, especially the first half of Thursday as clouds clear some. Northwest winds increase on Thursday, and this may help generate some light additional snowfall.
Friday -> A weak high pressure ridge aloft builds in, with partly cloudy skies and "warmer" temperatures. Winds look lighter.
Saturday and Sunday -> Blocking high pressure ridging starts to form over the west coast and into the Rockies, while another compact low pressure system may form and move in toward the desert southwest. Moisture from across the plains may be drawn in to this low, and help produce some light snow (favoring the front range and east slopes along the divide) across northern New Mexico. We do not expect much snow at this time.
Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM
Monday Feb 08, 2010
Hi 25°f / 11°f (base/top)
Lo 14°f / 3°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Cloudy and colder with scattered light to moderate snow showers.
Precipitation:
Snow.
Snow Potential
3 to 5 inches of additional snowfall.
Wind:
S at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 25mph.
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Tuesday Feb 09, 2010
Hi 29°f / 15°f (base/top)
Lo -2°f / 3°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly to mostly cloudy by afternoon, and mostly cloudy in the evening/ overnight. Snow flurries develop in the evening/ overnight.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Becoming SW at 10 to 20mph. Winds above timberline; W at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
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Wednesday Feb 10, 2010
Hi 30°f / 16°f (base/top)
Lo 8°f / 6°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Becoming mostly cloudy with developing light snow showers.
Precipitation:
40% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
1 inch of snowfall.
Wind:
SW at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.
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Thursday Feb 11, 2010
Hi 29°f / 15°f (base/top)
Lo 11°f / 8°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly cloudy with continued light snow showers, mostly after the morning hours.
Precipitation:
40% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
1 inch of additional snowfall.
Wind:
NW at 10 to 20mph. Winds above timberline; NW at 20 to 30 gusts to 40mph.
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Friday Feb 12, 2010
Hi 40°f / 27°f (base/top)
Lo 10°f / 15°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and milder with less wind.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
W at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; W at 10 to 20mph.
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Saturday Feb 13, 2010
Hi 32°f / 19°f (base/top)
Lo 13°f / 9°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Becoming cloudy and chilly with scattered light snow showers.
Precipitation:
30% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
1 to 2 inches of snowfall.
Wind:
SE/ SW at 10 to 20mph. Winds above timberline; E at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...February 14 to 17--A weak ridge of high pressure across the area, and blocking high pressure ridge across the western US is possible from roughly the 15th to the 19th, with weakened storms punching through at times, but otherwise not much weather is expected. After this, strong Pacific storms start pushing into the west coast, and moisture feeds into Colorado/ New Mexico. Storms should be a bit more favorable for northern regions at this time. We will watch and see how this unfolds. (From earlier discussions) Until we see the jet stream consolidate across the Rockies (it is a "split stream" and has been), most storms will either be southerly movers (big storms for northern New Mexico/ southwest Colorado, lighter snow to the north) or weakened storms that favor the north. The explanation of our weather pattern is a bit of an over-simplification, but the jet stream is a major player in our expected weather. February may end up being an average (improved) month for the north (mainly during the second half, which looks improved, with March and April potentially snowy months.
FROM OCTOBER; This winter we expect heavier than average snowfall for northern New Mexico. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average overall, with wide variations and some extreme cold periods. CM
