High pressure ridging dominates the western US and southwest Canada mainly by mid and late next week as the eastern US gets a turn at unsettled weather (24th of October onward for about a week). It is looking like some seriously cold air and unusual pre-Halloween snowfalls are possible in many areas of the eastern US, with snow possible even to northern Georgia and Mississippi! Around or just after Halloween, expect a shift back to unsettled for the western US, with more snow and probably colder than usual weather, early season additional accumulations for the Northwest US and Bogus basin also. Early November looks busy with storms and snow all across the western US and southwest Canada.

Expect a colder and more snowy winter for Revelstoke, Kingfisher Heli, Bogus Basin, and Aspen this season! I am thinking early openings possible again on some great early season conditions for all areas mentioned. We are in a neutral ENSO pattern (no El Nino or La Nina), leaning to La Nina this winter 2019-2020. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly

Some snow lingers across southeast BC (including Revelstoke MR) this morning, but clears out in dry north winds today (Monday), then, No storms, CHILLY, high pressure ridge across western Canada, sunshine for the mountain, but good snow-preserving COLD air under a north/ northwest flow of winds overhead and across the mountain.

HOW DID WE DO (please contact chris@snowforecast.com or comment below)? Let us know please... This is what we WERE forecasting for opening weekend: "Friday (opening day at the stoke) through the weekend, we expect storm energy to track just to the south while a high pressure ridge starts building in over western Canada, with most snow hitting the Pacific Northwest of the US, some occasional snow for the mid and lower mountain areas in southwest Canada, in much COLDER air as it is dragged out of the north. You will see most of the sunshine on the upper mountain. I say expect some nice but much colder conditions and sunshine mixed with clouds, mostly in the valley and base areas, for this weekend (bring some layers)!"

GREAT START AND WHAT IS COMING THIS COMING WEEK:
-What a season start! The snow and conditions have been amazing! For this week: Some snow lingers across southeast BC (including Revelstoke MR) this morning, but clears out in dry north winds today (Monday), then, No storms, CHILLY, high pressure ridge across western Canada, sunshine for the mountain, but good snow-preserving COLD air under a north/ northwest flow of winds overhead and across the mountain. Some "Alberta Clipper" type low pressure systems may clip the area with some clouds and light snow showers at times, mainly mid-week... (see animation of GFS snow potential, below)

Here is Revelstoke buried under, now 357cm (141") of snowfall to date!


Here is the snow outlook from the GFS, for this coming week and coming weekend of December 3rd - 9th... Notice the snow clipping the BC/ AB border around Wednesday (Tuesday night through Wednesday night).



LONGER RANGE:
It looks like El Nino is not an official anomaly yet, as I expected in my September LR forecast, so we are in an ENSO Neutral phase, though in the latest update from NOAA, we are seeing warming waters, still a weak El Nino at best. From the last update: "Next week we expect lots more sunshine on the mountain with some fog at times in the valley areas, ALL next week." <-- Last Tuesday (Nov 27th) when we updated the last forecast, were talking about this week, which is very much on track (compare to the short range outlook above)... CM

Next week, 10th onward, we expect regular snow storms and some significant snow to return, though it looks like the trend with this pattern is for storms to split (upper-level high pressure ridge anomaly over western Canada) as they move into the west coast, sending energy south into the United States, but because these look like strong and cold systems (ask Niseko, Japan) they are still capable of good snowfall across southwest Canada, and also, frequent. It looks like 3 storms total for next week (10th - 15th), with the last one toward the 13th-15th (late that week, and the weekend) possibly the strongest.

Here is that period represented by the GFS: 


(NO CHANGE from the last LR update) : We expect a slow down and more sunshine as we approach the Christmas and New Year holiday period, but not before some nice dumps of snow pile up through and past mid-December (until the 20th at least)... There will still be some storm energy at times for some fresh snow during the holiday break. In January storms should kick in again on a more regular basis. More updates are coming. Do you have any ideas on what you want to see in our discussions? Please contact through the site! We do not charge for any of our info, and have been providing it since 1998, "Predicting Sick Days since 1998"! CM

SHORT RANGE:
-Wednesday and Thursday we expect light additional snow as an incoming storm system moves through, but sends most of its energy to the south, for mostly light snow accumulations expected at the resorts. Revelstoke Mountain Resort, BC is opening December 1, and reports 130" of snow so far (330cm) this season, with a base depth of 4 feet (120cm), and over 2 feet (64cm) in the last week!

Here is Revelstoke's Gnorm, buried under almost a foot of fresh pow (27cm)


And a shot of some live cam imagery from today (27Nov):


Friday (opening day at the stoke) through the weekend, we expect storm energy to track just to the south while a high pressure ridge starts building in over western Canada, with most snow hitting the Pacific Northwest of the US, some occasional snow for the mid and lower mountain areas in southwest Canada, in much COLDER air as it is dragged out of the north. You will see most of the sunshine on the upper mountain. I say expect some nice but much colder conditions and sunshine mixed with clouds, mostly in the valley and base areas, for this weekend (bring some layers)!

Here is the snow outlook from the GFS, for now through this weekend...


LONGER RANGE:
It looks like El Nino is not an official anomaly yet, as I expected in my September LR forecast, so we are in an ENSO Neutral phase, though in the latest update from NOAA, we are seeing warming waters, still a weak El Nino at best. Next week we expect lots more sunshine on the mountain with some fog at times in the valley areas, ALL next week. By the 7th-10th...

Here is that period, 3rd through 7th of December from the GFS - Please pay attention to added snow, as it starts off showing previously fallen snow estimates:


Next weekend, expect storms and snow to return, with some strong systems expected, better tracking across southwest Canada, and good snowfall across southwest Canada.

Here is that period represented by the GFS - Again, please pay attention to added snow, as it starts off showing previously fallen snow estimates:


We expect a slow down and more sunshine as we approach the Christmas and New Year holiday period, but not before some nice dumps of snow pile up through and past mid-December... There will still be some storm energy at times for some fresh snow during the holiday break. In January storms should kick in again on a more regular basis. More updates are coming. Do you have any ideas on what you want to see in our discussions? Please contact through the site! We do not charge for any of our info, and have been providing it since 1998, "Predicting Sick Days since 1998"! CM

Posted Oct 27, 2018 - A relatively warm storm system is moving in for today and Sunday with showers all across southern British Columbia and southwest Alberta, starting out heavy right now, Saturday night, for the Vancouver, BC area:


The next several days to before Halloween look like this in terms of precipitation:


And here is how snowfall is looking for now through just after the 10th of November: (45 to 90cm of snow (18" to 36") is possible in the next 16 days for areas 1,200 to 1,500+ meters in elevation (4,000 to 5,000 feet), which includes many resorts base to top!)



My latest discussion, highlighting one of our new sponsors, Revelstoke!



Link to Revelstoke Forecast

Link to all British Columbia, Canada Forecasts

Fri, August 31st, 2018 (begun this article)
Wednesday September 19, 2018 (I finally finished it!)

MODOKI EL NINO = bad, REGULAR EL NINO = not as bad, WEAK EL NINO to ENSO Neutral = possibly good! There are many possibilities with the last one (the one we think is coming) but we will nail it down for you! 

WA/ ID/ MT, and Inland Empire (Spokane-Coeur d'Alene)
FALL and WINTER SEASON FORECAST FROM SNOWFORECAST.COM!

...WHAT IS THE FORECAST?...
OCTOBER - (Above average snowfall and below average temperatures) Early season cold and October snows for the ski resorts, though best snow and coldest temperatures will be to the east of the divide and Wyoming/ southwest Montana. There will be enough cold to test out any snowmaking equipment, and the early snows will linger for some hours and even days to help cool the soil for some good base building when we move into November...
NOVEMBER - (Above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures) Continued good early season snow and lower than usual snow levels with early first measurable  snows in the Inland Empire of Spokane-CDA, likely in early November. We expect some Thanksgiving opening days...
DECEMBER - (Near to above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures through mid December, then dropping off to below average snowfall and near average temperatures) Good snowfall events through mid December and near to below average temperatures, then incoming storms start shifting to the south on a different storm  track, with lighter snows across the region as we move into the holidays.
JANUARY ONWARD, MORE COMING SOON - ? Stay tuned, but a brief synopsis: Dry for most of January with above average temperatures. Storms return in February with near to a bit below average snowfall (could still be good), then March through the rest of the season looks near to warmer than average in temperature, with below average snows, though April could produce some big storms and powder days to pass through the region, building the late season snowpack. More details are coming, and I will be naming resorts and forecasting long range snow totals. CM

...WHAT ARE THE FACTORS AND OPINIONS?...
Here are my August 31 observations: An El Nino that "wants" to happen, but meager warming to even some cooling in the key Nino regions (recent), and a mostly neutral status (currently) is not showing much hope for any El Nino pattern that may be classified as moderate or strong. In fact, I will say that we will not see a moderate or strong El Nino SST pattern this 2018-2019 season, and the NOAA forecasted weak El Nino is looking like a "maybe".
And, my September 15 observations: Latest guidance indicates that the El Nino SST anomaly will be weak, at best, in my opinion. Here is why: Cooler eastern Pacific waters (Nino 3.4 region)/ Subsurface waters heat content (180-100W Lat) has decreased/ and the current pattern is showing mostly a general cooling and not warming overall, though in the last 7 days, eastern Pacific surface waters off the coast of Ecuador (means "Equator") have warmed . Its mid September and this El Nino event should be a bit more evident. Its not. Even NOAA has backed off a bit with a 65% chance of El Nino formation, instead of the 70% they had called for early on in the summer when this anomaly looked more likely. For them to back off a bit like that indicates definite lost confidence, and this is not surprising, as I lost confidence in it occurring myself, back in July. Things work a bit slower in these large organizations, while us "loose cannons" (whatever in the hell that means) can blast off at will. Haha.

*An El Nino is still favored according to the above Climate Prediction Center chart*

*We have seen some areas of cooling in the Nino 1+2 and 3 regions, as this El Nino struggles to form. This is indicating cooling in the subsurface waters, which is a factor that is looked at for potential SST's*

*As of Sep 12, there is some warming going on again in the referenced "Nino 3" region, so overall there is a positive SST anomaly, but mostly less than +.5 (in yellow on the above chart), which is the threshold that needs to be met for 3 consecutive months before an actual El Nino pattern is recognized. For now we are in an "ENSO neutral" status.

SOLAR MINIMUM: In terms of sunspot activity, there is currently almost none, or even "none", zero, zilch, nada, many days. Decreased or zero sunspot activity also affects our weather patterns. The chart below shows how we are in a solar "grand minimum" right now:


Side note, look at the last minimum, in 07-08-09', when  the Inland Northwest had the most snow EVER recorded, back to back years, one with 170+ inches of snow in Coeur d'Alene, ID.

Also, we have seen some recent serious weather extremes this Summer of 2018, and have no reason to believe that we will not see similar extremes this fall and winter in North America:

From extreme heat in Europe, notably northern Europe:



To extreme snow and cold in August:

 NOAA: So to reiterate, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was forecasting a 60% likelihood for formation of an El Nino SST pattern this fall, and a 70% chance for the winter, 2018-2019, while now those forecasts are down to 50-55% and 65-70%, respectively. Large organizations like NOAA are not going to go backward on the forecast (decreased % chance), like this without very good reason, like, "its not happening like we thought it would guys"...

SNOWFORECAST.COM: At this point, a "weak" El Nino SST anomaly is the forecast from NOAA. I have believed since June that this would be a weak El Nino pattern that sets up, based on the afore-mentioned trend, but am now wondering if this El Nino will even show up at all. For those who desire to see some at least average rain and snowfall this winter, a weak El Nino or no El Nino may be best. If an El Nino, weak, does form, it is looking more likely to be the Modoki version, which on average, sucks (dry) all across the western US. Thankfully, as a weak factor (there are other factors), a weak El Nino of any kind will have a "weaker" influence on the weather patterns we see this fall and winter, THANKFULLY. We are also looking (currently) at a weakly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more of a long term state of ocean water temps), which will not help in the El Nino department. Neutral to "very weak El Nino" is what we are forecasting as we move into fall and maybe through the winter, at best +.5 which is barely classified as an El Nino. As well, with the Grand Solar Minimum, expect the unexpected, and so far, that has proven true in many parts of the world. How will all of these factors; Weak El Nino, or even "ENSO Neutral" SST anomaly, neutral PDO, GSM (solar), and my own intuition, affect the Northwest US and Western Canada forecast? Just scroll back to the top to find out!

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

Some References:
COLD AND SNOW:  https://www.theweek.info/index.php?newsid=3760 (Salzburg, over 1 foot of snow in August!)

 

HEAT:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/17/scorching-scandinavia-record-breaking-heat-hits-norway-finland-and-sweden (90+ degrees in Norway, all time record high temps!)

Great resource for current SST’s and anomalies:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

International Research Institute:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Latest ENSO Discussion:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php

Space Weather ("Solar Minimum"):
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

NCEP model forecast SST anomalies (1 model forecasting La Nina):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas2.html

The ONE outlier model forecasting La Nina:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_GEOS5v2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

Loads of the latest SST charts from ESRL, knock yourself out:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Best anomaly chart (in my opinion):
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.hov.gif

Detailed ENSO Discussion from NOAA:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

More info/ charts on Modoki El Nino:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

El Nino/ La Nina years/ ONI:
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

A GREAT resource for "no BS" historical ski season info:
http://bestsnow.net/

Latest PDO and history:
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

 

Fri, August 31st, 2018 (begun this article)
Saturday September 15, 2018 (I finally finished it!)

MODOKI EL NINO = bad, REGULAR EL NINO = not as bad, WEAK EL NINO to ENSO Neutral = possibly good! There are many possibilities with the last one (the one we think is coming) but we will nail it down for you! 

WA/ ID/ MT, and Inland Empire (Spokane-Coeur d'Alene)
FALL and WINTER SEASON FORECAST FROM SNOWFORECAST.COM!

...WHAT IS THE FORECAST?...
OCTOBER - (Above average snowfall and below average temperatures) Early season cold and October snows for the ski resorts, though best snow and coldest temperatures will be to the east of the divide and Wyoming/ southwest Montana. There will be enough snow to test out any snowmaking equipment, and the early snows will linger for some hours and even days to help cool the soil for some good base building when we move into November...
NOVEMBER - (Above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures) Continued good early season snow and lower than usual snow levels with early first measurable  snows in the Inland Empire of Spokane-CDA, likely in early November. We expect some Thanksgiving opening days...
DECEMBER - (Near to above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures through mid December, then dropping off to below average snowfall and near average temperatures) Good snowfall events through mid December and near to below average temperatures, then incoming storms start shifting to the south on a different storm  track, with lighter snows across the region as we move into the holidays.
JANUARY ONWARD, MORE COMING SOON - ? Stay tuned, but a brief synopsis: Dry for most of January with above average temperatures. Storms return in February with near to a bit below average snowfall (could still be good), then March through the rest of the season looks near to warmer than average in temperature, with below average snows, though April could produce some big storms and powder days to pass through the region, building the late season snowpack. More details are coming, and I will be naming resorts and forecasting long range snow totals. CM

...WHAT ARE THE FACTORS AND OPINIONS?...
Here are my August 31 observations: An El Nino that "wants" to happen, but meager warming to even some cooling in the key Nino regions (recent), and a mostly neutral status (currently) is not showing much hope for any El Nino pattern that may be classified as moderate or strong. In fact, I will say that we will not see a moderate or strong El Nino SST pattern this 2018-2019 season, and the NOAA forecasted weak El Nino is looking like a "maybe".
And, my September 15 observations: Latest guidance indicates that the El Nino SST anomaly will be weak, at best, in my opinion. Here is why: Cooler eastern Pacific waters (Nino 3.4 region)/ Subsurface waters heat content (180-100W Lat) has decreased/ and the current pattern is showing mostly a general cooling and not warming overall, though in the last 7 days, eastern Pacific surface waters off the coast of Ecuador (means "Equator") have warmed . Its mid September and this El Nino event should be a bit more evident. Its not. Even NOAA has backed off a bit with a 65% chance of El Nino formation, instead of the 70% they had called for early on in the summer when this anomaly looked more likely. For them to back off a bit like that indicates definite lost confidence, and this is not surprising, as I lost confidence in it occurring myself, back in July. Things work a bit slower in these large organizations, while us "loose cannons" (whatever in the hell that means) can blast off at will. Haha.


*An El Nino is still favored according to the above Climate Prediction Center chart*


*We have seen some areas of cooling in the Nino 1+2 and 3 regions, as this El Nino struggles to form. This is indicating cooling in the subsurface waters, which is a factor that is looked at for potential SST's*


*As of Sep 12, there is some warming going on again in the referenced "Nino 3" region, so overall there is a positive SST anomaly, but mostly less than +.5 (in yellow on the above chart), which is the threshold that needs to be met for 3 consecutive months before an actual El Nino pattern is recognized. For now we are in an "ENSO neutral" status.

SOLAR MINIMUM: In terms of sunspot activity, there is currently almost none, or even "none", zero, zilch, nada, many days. Decreased or zero sunspot activity also affects our weather patterns. The chart below shows how we are in a solar "grand minimum" right now:



Side note, look at the last minimum, in 07-08-09', when  the Inland Northwest had the most snow EVER recorded, back to back years, one with 170+ inches of snow in Coeur d'Alene, ID.

We have seen some serious weather extremes this Summer of 2018:

From extreme heat in Europe, notably northern Europe:



To extreme snow and cold in August:

 NOAA: So to reiterate, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was forecasting a 60% likelihood for formation of an El Nino SST pattern this fall, and a 70% chance for the winter, 2018-2019, while now those forecasts are down to 50-55% and 65-70%, respectively. Large organizations like NOAA are not going to go backward on the forecast (decreased % chance), like this without very good reason, like, "its not happening like we thought it would guys"...

SNOWFORECAST.COM: At this point, a "weak" El Nino SST anomaly is the forecast from NOAA. I have believed since June that this would be a weak El Nino pattern that sets up, based on the afore-mentioned trend, but am now wondering if this El Nino will even show up at all. For those who desire to see some at least average rain and snowfall this winter, a weak El Nino or no El Nino may be best. If an El Nino, weak, does form, it is looking more likely to be the Modoki version, which on average, sucks (dry) all across the western US. Thankfully, as a weak factor (there are other factors), a weak El Nino of any kind will have a "weaker" influence on the weather patterns we see this fall and winter, THANKFULLY. We are also looking (currently) at a weakly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more of a long term state of ocean water temps), which will not help in the El Nino department. Neutral to "very weak El Nino" is what we are forecasting as we move into fall and maybe through the winter, at best +.5 which is barely classified as an El Nino. As well, with the Grand Solar Minimum, expect the unexpected, and so far, that has proven true in many parts of the world. How will all of these factors; Weak El Nino, or even "ENSO Neutral" SST anomaly, neutral PDO, GSM (solar), and my own intuition, affect the Northwest US and Western Canada forecast? Just scroll back to the top to find out!

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

Some References:
COLD AND SNOW: https://www.theweek.info/index.php?newsid=3760 (Salzburg, over 1 foot of snow in August!)

HEAT: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/17/scorching-scandinavia-record-breaking-heat-hits-norway-finland-and-sweden (90+ degrees in Norway, all time record high temps!)

Great resource for current SST’s and anomalies:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

International Research Institute:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Latest ENSO Discussion:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php

Space Weather ("Solar Minimum"):
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

NCEP model forecast SST anomalies (1 model forecasting La Nina):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas2.html

The ONE outlier model forecasting La Nina:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_GEOS5v2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

Loads of the latest SST charts from ESRL, knock yourself out:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Best anomaly chart (in my opinion):
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.hov.gif

Detailed ENSO Discussion from NOAA:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

More info/ charts on Modoki El Nino:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

El Nino/ La Nina years/ ONI:
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

A GREAT resource for "no BS" historical ski season info:
http://bestsnow.net/

Latest PDO and history:
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt