Sunlight Mountain Resort (Base: 7,885', Top: 9,895')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Friday, November 20, 2009PLEASE NOTE: The temperatures shown for "base" (if "base/ top" is not displayed) are more of a mid mountain temperature forecast. We forecast base and top temperatures plus more detail for our partner resorts like Winter Park, Aspen-Snowmass, and the Vail Resorts.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 18, High 43 (Highest ~ 66 in 1999+, Lowest ~ (-)04 in 2000)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elevation for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 10, High 38 (Highest ~ 66 in 1999, Lowest ~ (-)18 in 1997)
-At 12,500 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in Colorado); Low 04, High 26
SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20th at 6:26am...Today -> Temperatures "warm up" some with a more southwest flow of winds due to an approaching storm. We expect mostly sunny skies.
Saturday -> The first storm system moves in off the Pacific for Saturday, with light and scattered snow showers expected to occur mainly in the afternoon through overnight across mainly the northern Colorado Rockies (mainly along and north of the I-70). This first storm has decent west winds and very limited moisture, plus a little bit of upper level instability. This equates to very light snow as far as we can tell, mostly ending Saturday night.
Sunday and Monday -> The 2nd storm moves through mainly to the north again, with a stronger cross mountain flow from the west and northwest of about 20 to 25 knots. There should be decent upper level instability but still limited moisture, for another shot of snow across our I-70 area resorts. Orographics look good (wind and upsloping of moisture), moisture does not. We will hope that the orographics overcome the lack of good moisture (and this has been the case at times in the past). Accumulating snow starts up mainly Sunday night and continues through Monday morning. Clouds and snow clear late Monday for northern resorts and those near the divide, though earlier farther west. Temperatures look colder on Monday.
Tuesday -> Another fast moving storm system moves through, clipping the area mainly near the divide with light snowfall. Some clouds and cool temperatures are expected elsewhere.
Wednesday and Thursday (Thanksgiving) -> High pressure ridging aloft noses in for Wednesday and Thanksgiving, with mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures. Dewpoints remain low, and large swings are expected between daytime highs and nighttime lows.
Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM
Saturday Nov 21, 2009
Hi 35°f / 2°c (base)
Lo 19°f / -7°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly to mostly cloudy early and in the morning with increasing winds, becoming mostly cloudy with developing light and scattered snow showers in the afternoon/ evening. Light snow ends overnight.
Precipitation:
40% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
A trace to 1 inch of snowfall.
Wind:
Increasing to SW at 5 to 15 gusts to 20mph. Winds above timberline; SW/ NW at 20 to 30 gusts to 50mph.
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Sunday Nov 22, 2009
Hi 35°f / 2°c (base)
Lo 16°f / -9°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy through the day, with increasing winds. Mostly cloudy and colder with isolated to scattered snow showers in the evening and through overnight.
Precipitation:
50% chance for snow overnight.
Snow Potential
3 to 6 inches of snowfall.
Wind:
Becoming W at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; W/ NW at 25 to 35 gusts to 55mph.
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Monday Nov 23, 2009
Hi 29°f / -2°c (base)
Lo 13°f / -11°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly to at times mostly cloudy and colder still, with isolated light snow showers mainly in the morning. Northwest winds are expected. Wind chills will be low, mainly on the mid and upper mountain.
Precipitation:
20% chance for snow, mainly in the morning.
Snow Potential
A trace to 1 inch of additional snowfall.
Wind:
NW at 5 to 15 gusts to 20mph. Winds above timberline; NW at 20 to 30 gusts to 45mph.
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Tuesday Nov 24, 2009
Hi 31°f / -1°c (base)
Lo 26°f / -3°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and chilly with less wind.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
NW at 4 to 12mph. Winds above timberline; Increasing to NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.
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Wednesday Nov 25, 2009
Hi 35°f / 2°c (base)
Lo 25°f / -4°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
Wind:
W at up to 5 mph.
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Thursday Nov 26, 2009
Hi 38°f / 3°c (base)
Lo 25°f / -4°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
Wind:
SW at up to 5 mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...November 26 to 29--Thanksgiving weekend we see another low pressure system moving in with more snow for the region (we would say moderate snowfall for now, under 1 foot and maybe in the 2 to 4 inches category for most areas). We see a couple of days break followed by another storm in early December.
This winter we expect heavier than average snowfall for southwest Colorado, from Telluride to Wolf Creek, up to Crested Butte. For Aspen, we expect slightly above average snowfall, and from Breckenridge to Winter Park we expect near average snowfall. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average overall, with wide variations and some extreme cold periods. CM
