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Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Most of this week looks warmer and drier under mostly sunny skies as unusually persistent October high pressure ridging aloft holds. Warm days, large diurnal swings in temperature, and chilly nights (plus valley inversion layers) are expected almost all of this week. Friday and Saturday, into Sunday, we see subtropical moisture move in with a weakened upper-level weather disturbance that was located west of Baja long enough to pull some moisture from relatively warm ocean waters, causing showers and thunderstorms all across Colorado including Aspen-Snowmass. Please see the long range forecast for more. CM
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7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - The western US as a whole, including Aspen-Snowmass, looks drier and warmer than usual from the 19th onward, right through possibly the rest of October under unusually strong high pressure ridging aloft. The Northwest US and Southwest Canada (BC/ AB) will be affected at times by low pressure systems moving in off the Gulf of Alaska, for some high mountain snow and valley rain (WA/ OR/ ID/ MT/ WY). We are watching the 22nd through the 25th for a possible shot of mountain snow across the Northwest US, then Utah/ Colorado, possibly even clipping the Tahoe-Mammoth region. The last several days of October we may see some resort elevation snow across the northwest US and also the central Rocky Mountains including Colorado and Utah as a fairly strong Gulf of Alaska low pressure system may move in.
The El Nino SST pattern is strong, right now, and it looks like we will see a VERY strong El Nino this fall and winter, possibly stronger than the 1997-1998 version, which is the strongest (in terms of SST anomaly) on record. This set-up would usually cause heavier rain and snow across California (mainly southern and central, possibly including Tahoe, but especially including Mountain High and Big Bear, as the epic 1997-1998 season can attest to) and the southwest US this winter. This would be a vast improvement for Tahoe-Mammoth. Southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico usually do well, including Taos Ski Valley, who had a great season in 2014-2015 with the weak El Nino(ish) anomaly. Aspen is in between, and we would say average snowfall should be expected at Aspen-Snowmass in 2015-2016. We will be posting a detailed outlook for Aspen-Snowmass, Squaw Valley/ Tahoe, Mountain High, and Taos Ski Valley in the coming months. We will be monitoring the progress of this right here, stay tuned... CM
Copper Mountain is just 75 miles from Denver with 2,450 acres of skiable terrain and a village that feels more like a neighborhood. It's clear why Copper is the #1 choice of so many Colorado skiers and riders. Naturally divided for all abilities, it offers steep terrain to the east, gentle slopes to the west, intermediate terrain through the middle and some of the best bowl skiing in the state. Three recently completed base villages have quickly redefined the Copper experience. A new kids-only base lodge — The Schoolhouse — has transformed the Union Creek base area, as have Copper Springs Lodge and the Copper Station base lodge in the East Village. And, completed last season, The New Village at Copper is alive and well, offering a Copper experience like never before. Five new buildings possessing a variety of lodging opportunities, restaurants, bars and shops now sit at the base of the mountain.