Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Thursday, August 27, 2015
This morning we have some cloud cover, higher humidity, and isolated thunderstorms plus some showers across the area as an upper level weather disturbance moves eastward through this morning. Today looks noticeably cooler with decreasing clouds and shower chances (becoming mostly sunny later today). Friday and Saturday we are back to warming and drier weather, plus very isolated afternoon thunderstorms mainly on the peaks. By Sunday through next Tuesday, a strong and much needed wet and cold low pressure system affects the northwest US, and places Colorado under an increasing moisture weather pattern, with an increase in thunderstorm and shower potential, not to mention clouds, each day. CM
Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - We plan to bring this back in the fall, unless we receive interest in firing the longer range forecast back up, sooner.
The El Nino SST pattern is strong, right now, and it looks like we will see a VERY strong El Nino this fall and winter, possibly stronger than the 1997-1998 version, which is the strongest (in terms of SST anomaly) on record. This set-up would usually cause heavier rain and snow across California (mainly southern and central, possibly including Tahoe, but especially including Mountain High and Big Bear, as the epic 1997-1998 season can attest to) and the southwest US this winter. This would be a vast improvement for Tahoe-Mammoth. Southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico usually do well, including Taos Ski Valley, who had a great season in 2014-2015 with the weak El Nino(ish) anomaly. Aspen is in between, and we would say average snowfall should be expected at Aspen-Snowmass in 2015-2016. We will be posting a detailed outlook for Aspen-Snowmass, Squaw Valley/ Tahoe, Mountain High, and Taos Ski Valley in the coming months. We will be monitoring the progress of this right here, stay tuned... CM
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