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Garfield
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Short Range Forecast Discussion

->This free forecast is brought to you courtesy of Aspen-Snowmass Resort<-
Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Sunday, December 21, 2014 - Aspen-Snowmass, and many other areas (especially east of Vail Pass and north of I-70) are still on track to get hit with the biggest snow storm of the season, just in time for Christmas week. This is due to some moisture laden storms clipping the area out of the northwest today and Monday, and multiple feet of snow expected, especially along the divide and northwest facing slopes (possibly to 3 feet or more). We expect Aspen-Snowmass to see heavy snow also as winds increase quite a bit, and deep moisture is pushed across the mountain barriers. Mid and upper level instability increases mainly later today (afternoon) through early Monday, and this is when the heaviest snow is expected. A strong cold front moves through on Monday as snow continues, heavy at times. Southwest Colorado will be less favored, but will still see respectable totals for the most part. Snow clears out slowly Tuesday morning as low pressure moves out and high pressure builds in briefly. We expect no snow through Wednesday, then snow moves in Wednesday night and mainly Christmas day, possibly significant again, but not nearly as heavy as the storm about to hit. Conditions will really improve for the week ahead.
Buying discounted lift tickets through this link will support this website and help keep the short and long range forecasts going-> Get Discount lift tickets here and save up to 80%
(please see the longer range forecasts toward the bottom of this page) CM

Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
11,952 ft
10,790 ft
1,162 ft
1 mile
RESORT INFO ↑25°  -4c° ↓19°  -7c° MID MTN
  • Last Update 21 Dec @ 12:12
  • Snow Past 24 Hours 3 in
  • Snow Past 48 Hours 3 in
  • Season Total 33 in
  • Average Base Depth 39 in
Comments
20in, past 6 days. Snow surface is powder and packed powder.
Today's Snow Potential
6 to 10 inches of snowfall
What's Open?
  • Trails62 of 62
  • Lifts6 of 6
  • Acreage800 of 800 (100%)
Other Info
  • Groomed Night Ski Trails25 (46%)
21 Sunday ↑25°  -4c° ↓19°  -7c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Becoming cloudy with scattered to numerous snow showers, heaviest in the afternoon/ evening, and with gusty winds (areas of blowing snow).
Precipitation
Snow definite
Snow Potential
6 to 10 inches of snowfall
Wind
Base; W at 5-15mph, becoming N/ NW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph. Above timberline; Increasing to W/ NW at 35 to 45 gusts to 60mph.
22 Monday ↑23°  -5c° ↓3°  -16c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Cloudy and becoming progressively colder, with scattered snow showers, and with gusty winds (areas of blowing and drifting snow).
Precipitation
Snow likely (80% chance)
Snow Potential
3 to 6 inches of snowfall
Wind
Base; W at 10-20mph, becoming NW at 20 to 30 gusts to 40mph. Above timberline; Increasing to NW at 40 to 50 gusts to 70mph.
23 Tuesday ↑12°  -11c° ↓9°  -13c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Skies clear to partly cloudy during the day, and winds continue gusty.
Precipitation
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; NW at 5-15mph, becoming NW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph. Above timberline; Increasing to NW at 30 to 45 gusts to 60mph.
24 Wednesday ↑25°  -4c° ↓16°  -9c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Partly cloudy and milder, with less wind (but still gusty) and no snow. Snow develops after midnight.
Precipitation
40% chance for snow after midnight
Snow Potential
Snow on Thursday
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming NW at 10 to 20mph. Above timberline; Increasing to NW at 20 to 30 gusts to 40mph.
25 Thursday ↑23°  -5c° ↓5°  -15c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers
Precipitation
40% chance for snow. (Potential precip: 0.01in, 0.36mm)
Snow Potential
We are expecting a trace to 1 inch of snowfall (1 to 3cm)
Wind
From the WSW at 14 to 21 MPH.
26 Friday ↑12°  -11c° ↓-2°  -19c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Partly cloudy with a chance for snow
Precipitation
20% chance for snow. (Potential precip: 0.06in, 1.42mm)
Snow Potential
We are expecting 2 to 3 inches of snowfall (5 to 8cm)
Wind
From the WNW at 12 to 16 MPH.
Long Range Forecast Discussion:

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7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - 25 December to 04 January, 2014 - COLORADO/ NEW MEXICO: All next week (22nd onward) we expect a more favorable northern storm track (all Christmas week), for better chances of better than light, and more powdery/ cold snow, due to the colder storm origins from out of the Gulf of Alaska and crossing Canada on the way in. After Christmas week and toward the end of 2014, we expect storm-blocking higher pressure ridging to build in across the area, with more sunshine and less potential for any snow. NORTHWEST US and SOUTHWEST CANADA: High pressure pushes in across the area from the southwest US and eastern Pacific much of Christmas week, with some tail ends of storms (warmer southern portion) moving through, causing rain showers and higher elevation snow showers, with mostly rain at and below ski resort base elevations (snow level issues, rain mix at base elevations) across the Pacific Northwest including north Idaho ski resorts. Southwest Canada (Alberta/ British Columbia) should see less snow level issues and more snow potential than Inland Northwest ski resorts, all through Christmas week. It looks like the Inland Northwest may see a white Christmas, showing up a day or so before Christmas in the form of a colder storm (Christmas eve/ Christmas snow for Coeur d'Alene/ Spokane). SOUTHWEST US AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA; Mostly dry with high pressure ridging dominating for Christmas week and possibly through the end of the year. This outlook includes southern California resort areas like Mountain High. UTAH looks like it may get clipped (northern Utah) Christmas day (or the day before/ day after), but mostly sunny skies may dominate all week under high pressure. WYOMING/ MONTANA We expect high pressure to set up across the southwest US, with storms again targeting the Pacific Northwest/ southwest Canada, and Wyoming/ Montana, for a nice freshen up of colder snow and temperatures before the major holiday, and during it. CM

Longer Range Outlook

December 2014, we are in a weak El Nino Sea Surface Temperature pattern across the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. (prior forecast-->) Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies yield a weak El Nino pattern across the eastern Equatorial Pacific (El Nino development is on track, but it will be weak, still somewhat favorable for California (Tahoe-Mammoth/ SoCal) and the desert Southwest, plus southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico).

Current SST pattern- El Nino

A weak El Nino (or possible "neutral" pattern) is expected for this winter, into early 2015.

Current SST pattern- El Nino

Northwest US areas, and southwest Canada, along with northern Colorado through Wyoming and the northern Rocky Mountains, should expect a drier than average, or near average snowfall winter (2014-2015). Tahoe/ Mammoth should see near average snowfall, with near average snowfall also expected across southern California and northern Arizona resorts. CM

Monarch Mountain...all natural snow...all natural setting...all about having fun! Come see why so many people rave about what Monarch has to offer. Short lift lines, inexpensive restaurants, friendly staff on and off the mountain and no hassles of traffic to and from the ski area. Winter is on the way and we have made some great changes to add to Monarch's overall experience. We’ve widened some trails and added an additional 130 acres of awesome backcountry (extreme) skiing in Mirkwood Basin. This is an exciting change that we have been working on for quite some time and we’ve now opened the gates to our die-hard skiers/riders who are looking for new, challenging terrain. Did you say powder? We've got plenty of it here at Monarch because we still only use Mother Nature’s snow for our guests to ski and ride on. On a good snow day you just can't beat the all natural powder here. Monarch is also known to have some of the best tree skiing in the state, so be sure to check it out before the locals ski off the fresh stuff!!

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