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City
Garfield
State
Colorado
Country
United States
Monarch Mountain Monarch Mountain Hot
Short Range Forecast Discussion

->This free forecast is brought to you courtesy of Aspen-Snowmass Resort<-
Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Friday, October 31, 2014 - We are expecting a significant winter type storm to move in this weekend, and it looks like a fairly strong one with significant snowfall potential at the resorts, especially above 9,000 feet, though in Aspen we are expecting appreciable snowfall in town as well (mainly Sunday night). This system moves through the area with pretty good dynamics and moisture, but some limitations as the system weakens and is deflected northeast as it moves in Sunday, and favoring southwest slopes Sunday and Sunday night, then more west and northwest slopes on Monday as moisture is diminished. A decent shot of snow is expected for early November, best across southwest Colorado as a portion of the incoming storms' energy pinches off and crosses that part of the state as a separate circulation. Mostly sunny skies are expected under building high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday, through Thursday at least as high pressure ridging builds in strong. (please see the longer range forecasts toward the bottom of this page) CM

Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
11,952 ft
10,790 ft
1,162 ft
1 mile
RESORT INFO ↑43°  6c° ↓28°  -2c° MID MTN
  • Last Update 24 Oct @ 02:10
  • Snow Past 24 Hours 0 in
  • Snow Past 48 Hours 0 in
  • Season Total 0 in
  • Average Base Depth 0 in
Comments
None Reported
Today's Snow Potential
1 to 2 inches of snowfall above 8,500 feet
What's Open?
  • Trails0 of 62
  • Lifts0 of 6
  • Acreage0 of 800 (0%)
Other Info
  • Additional ReportsNone
01 Saturday ↑43°  6c° ↓28°  -2c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Partly cloudy and becoming very windy, with isolated showers (10,000ft snow level). Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the evening/ overnight, with snow levels dropping to near 8,500 feet.
Precipitation
10% chance for showers (day), and a 50% chance for showers overnight
Snow Potential
1 to 2 inches of snowfall above 8,500 feet
Wind
Base; S at 5-15mph, becoming SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph. Above timberline; Increasing to SW at 25 to 40 gusts to 60mph.
02 Sunday ↑32°  0c° ↓19°  -7c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Mostly cloudy and colder with light showers at times through the day (rain below 9,000 feet). Winds decrease late day. Cloudy and progressively colder with snow showers overnight (snow to 6,000 feet).
Precipitation
Showers likely
Snow Potential
2 to 4 inches of snowfall to the base (and in Aspen), and 4 to 7 inches of snowfall above 9,000 feet
Wind
Base; S/ SW at 5-15mph, becoming SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph. Above timberline; SW at 20 to 35 gusts to 50mph, decreasing to 15-25 G35mph.
03 Monday ↑30°  -1c° ↓18°  -8c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Mostly cloudy and colder with mostly light snow showers.
Precipitation
50% chance for snow
Snow Potential
1 to 3 inches of snowfall
Wind
Base; Becoming NW at 5 to 15mph. Above timberline; NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.
04 Tuesday ↑18° ↓7° ↑41° ↓13°
Sky Condition
Partly cloudy, chilly and drier with increased northwest breezes.
Precipitation
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming NW at 10 to 20mph. Above timberline; NW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
05 Wednesday ↑26° ↓14° ↑47° ↓10°
Sky Condition
Mostly clear, drier and milder with not much wind except above timberline.
Precipitation
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming NW at 5 to 15mph. Above timberline; NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.
06 Thursday ↑43°  6c° ↓28°  -2c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Mostly sunny
Precipitation
None Expected
Snow Potential
None Expected
Wind
From the W at 6 to 14 MPH.
Long Range Forecast Discussion:

7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - 06 to 16 November, 2014 - High pressure dominates most of the western US for 5 - 7 days after a good storm for the western US... with mostly sunny and mostly dry conditions Tahoe to Colorado. Storms should become more frequent with less sunny weather overall (seasonal) as we move further into November, especially after the 10th. CM

Longer Range Outlook

As of now, October 2014, we are still on a path to see an El Nino Sea Surface Temperature pattern hold across the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies yield a weak El Nino pattern across the eastern Equatorial Pacific (El Nino development is on track, but it will be weak at least to start, still favorable for California and the desert Southwest, plus much of Colorado and northern New Mexico). Please note; Many computer models indicate the El Nino SST pattern may become moderate strength later this fall and early 2015, with would help focus more of the Gulf of Alaska storm action across the southwest US and California, where its desperately needed.

Current SST pattern- El Nino

A weak El Nino is now being predicted for this fall and winter, into early 2015. It looks like the early season (October/ November) will see more rain and snow for southern and central California, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado. This should help kick off the early season for places like Mammoth Mountain. This should also help build up a better than average base of snow for Aspen-Snowmass and Taos Ski Valley. Temperatures are expected to be near and below average for these areas as well, which helps. Maybe Thanksgiving will be pretty good for many more areas across the southwest, and even for Squaw Valley in Tahoe. The Northwest US is expecting a drier and milder than usual fall, with less snowfall than average, though with their usual heavy snowfall, especially in the Cascades, this drier/ milder than average fall season could still be good for resorts across the northwest US, mainly along the Cascades, less so inland.

Current SST pattern- El Nino

The larger time-scale SST pattern in place right now is still a cool phase PDO, or negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). This is a more long term pattern (decades), and it has made any recent years El Nino SST patterns weaker (it looks like this is the case with the current El Nino, which was expected to be strong initially.

To summarize, the possibility of an El Nino pattern this fall and winter are "likely". Forecasts from other agencies are calling for El Nino conditions to hold this fall and winter. This would favor the southwest US (including southern California and across to Taos Ski Valley, even Aspen, Colorado) for heavier rain and snow this fall and mainly winter (2014-2015), after the wet monsoon summer across the southwest US (we forecast this in the spring). Northwest US areas, and southwest Canada, along with northern Colorado through Wyoming and the northern Rocky Mountains, should expect a drier than average, or near average snowfall winter (2014-2015). Tahoe/ Mammoth should see near average snowfall

Monarch Mountain...all natural snow...all natural setting...all about having fun! Come see why so many people rave about what Monarch has to offer. Short lift lines, inexpensive restaurants, friendly staff on and off the mountain and no hassles of traffic to and from the ski area. Winter is on the way and we have made some great changes to add to Monarch's overall experience. We’ve widened some trails and added an additional 130 acres of awesome backcountry (extreme) skiing in Mirkwood Basin. This is an exciting change that we have been working on for quite some time and we’ve now opened the gates to our die-hard skiers/riders who are looking for new, challenging terrain. Did you say powder? We've got plenty of it here at Monarch because we still only use Mother Nature’s snow for our guests to ski and ride on. On a good snow day you just can't beat the all natural powder here. Monarch is also known to have some of the best tree skiing in the state, so be sure to check it out before the locals ski off the fresh stuff!!

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