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City
Garfield
State
Colorado
Country
United States
Monarch Mountain Monarch Mountain Hot
Short Range Forecast Discussion
Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Tuesday July 29, 2014 - Moisture has increased from the southwest, and we now have dew point temperatures in the low 50's this morning at Aspen, which when combined with a deep moisture layer and an unstable atmosphere above will produce plenty of showers and thunderstorms today through tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected. We still expect that through tonight, moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop all across the area, with some soaking rains and downpours expected. Watch for very strong and gusty winds, plus frequent lightning from thunderstorms late today through Tuesday night. On Wednesday we expect to see some drying as the upper-level weather disturbances move east, and the bulk of moisture is also pushed east. We expect more sun on Wednesday, and less thunderstorm activity, though still scattered coverage. As high pressure shifts to the southwest of Colorado, we expect less moisture across the area, more sunshine, and only isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers each afternoon after mostly sunny mornings, Thursday and through the weekend, as a northwest flow aloft continues. CM

Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
11,952 ft
10,790 ft
1,162 ft
1 mile
RESORT INFO ↑51° ↓40° ↑73° ↓52°
  • Last Update 13 Apr @ 02:04
  • Snow Past 24 Hours 0 in
  • Snow Past 48 Hours 0 in
  • Season Total 328 in
  • Average Base Depth 0 in
Comments
None Reported
Today's Snow Potential
None expected
What's Open?
  • Trails0 of 62
  • Lifts0 of 6
  • Acreage0 of 800 (0%)
Other Info
  • Additional ReportsNone
29 Tuesday ↑51° ↓40° ↑73° ↓52°
Sky Condition
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms and numerous showers (morning through overnight). Heavy showers are expected across large areas (including in downtown Aspen). Showers continue overnight.
Precipitation
90% chance for showers (almost definite)
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming W at 5 to 15mph. Above timberline; W at 10 to 20mph. Wind gusts to 55mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
30 Wednesday ↑51° ↓37° ↑75° ↓52°
Sky Condition
Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms at any time morning through afternoon. Some heavy showers are expected. Showers mostly end overnight.
Precipitation
50% chance for showers (morning through afternoon)
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming NW at 5 to 15mph. Above timberline; Becoming NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
31 Thursday ↑55° ↓36° ↑80° ↓45°
Sky Condition
Partly cloudy and drier with warmer temperatures. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon, and dissipate in the evening.
Precipitation
40% chance for showers (afternoon)
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming NW at 5 to 15mph. Above timberline; Becoming NW at 10 to 20mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
01 Friday ↑57° ↓38° ↑81° ↓48°
Sky Condition
Partly cloudy with a continued drying trend, and warmer temperatures. Mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon, and dissipate in the evening.
Precipitation
30% chance for showers (afternoon)
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming NW at 5 to 15mph. Above timberline; Becoming NW at 10 to 20mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
02 Saturday ↑61°  16c° ↓43°  6c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Mostly cloudy with isolated storms
Precipitation
Isolated Storms (Potential precip: 0.11in, 2.85mm)
Snow Potential
None Expected
Wind
From the SW at 5 to 9 MPH.
03 Sunday ↑61°  16c° ↓45°  7c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Mostly cloudy with isolated storms
Precipitation
Isolated Storms (Potential precip: 0.27in, 6.81mm)
Snow Potential
None Expected
Wind
From the WSW at 3 to 7 MPH.
Long Range Forecast Discussion:

7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - 04 to 14 August, 2014 - Next week (Monday, August 4th and onward) we see upper-level high pressure ridging across the west (centered mainly near the 4-corners region ~ AZ/ NM/ UT/ CO), with a low to mid grade monsoon pattern across the southwest US (Arizona/ New Mexico), feeding mostly isolated afternoon thunderstorms and near to above average temperatures for Colorado, scattered (or better) thunderstorm coverage each afternoon across northern New Mexico, and otherwise mostly sunny weather is expected. We will continue to have to watch for the influence of tropical systems, which would increase shower and thunderstorm potential further. CM

Longer Range Outlook

As of now, July 2014, we are still on a path to see an El Nino Sea Surface Temperature pattern develop across the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (SSTs near to slightly below average). In fact, as of the last check, all of May and up until the last check of the charts (July), we see a trend to warmer Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (or at least warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) holding overall) across the eastern Equatorial Pacific (good sign).

Current SST pattern- La Nada

The larger time-scale SST pattern in place right now is still a cool phase PDO, or negative PDO, which stands for Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This is a more long term pattern (decades), and it has made any recent years El Nino SST patterns weaker.

To reiterate, we expect (and have seen) a trend toward positive SST Anomalies along the eastern Equatorial Pacific as of June 2, 2014 (SST's just west of South America along the equator are warming up, still). The likelihood of an El Nino pattern materializing by this summer and fall are becoming greater, now "likely". Forecasts from other agencies are calling for El Nino conditions to develop this summer and fall as well. This would favor the southwest US (including southern California and across to Taos Ski Valley, even Aspen, Colorado) for heavier rain and snow this fall and mainly winter (2014-2015), after a potentially wet monsoon summer across the southwest US including southern California through Colorado. Northwest US areas, and southwest Canada, along with northern Colorado through Wyoming and the northern Rocky Mountains, should see an active monsoon (thunderstorms and showers) this summer, followed by a drier than average, or near average snowfall winter (2014-2015). This is our outlook for now, and we will update as info becomes available. All of this information is generated in-house.

We will keep this outlook updated as more information becomes available. If you want to know when the snow is coming (and be able to set unlimited alerts for any resort), within 5 minutes or less of us (our our sources) entering the data into any of our forecasts, be sure to download the app.

Monarch Mountain...all natural snow...all natural setting...all about having fun! Come see why so many people rave about what Monarch has to offer. Short lift lines, inexpensive restaurants, friendly staff on and off the mountain and no hassles of traffic to and from the ski area. Winter is on the way and we have made some great changes to add to Monarch's overall experience. We’ve widened some trails and added an additional 130 acres of awesome backcountry (extreme) skiing in Mirkwood Basin. This is an exciting change that we have been working on for quite some time and we’ve now opened the gates to our die-hard skiers/riders who are looking for new, challenging terrain. Did you say powder? We've got plenty of it here at Monarch because we still only use Mother Nature’s snow for our guests to ski and ride on. On a good snow day you just can't beat the all natural powder here. Monarch is also known to have some of the best tree skiing in the state, so be sure to check it out before the locals ski off the fresh stuff!!

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