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Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Monday August 25, 2014 - Today yet another low pressure system approaches Colorado, with a more unsettled and more moist southwest flow aloft developing. Chances for mainly afternoon thunderstorms increase, though the dominant feature is still sunshine, and warmer temperatures. Thunderstorms and showers, mostly isolated, continuetonight as this approaching low moves in closer. The low moves through mainly to the north on Tuesday and Wednesday, with significant cooling, plus showers and thunderstorms increasing, likely affecting Aspen-Snowmass again. Light snow is expected on the upper mountain as well with this unseasonably chilly low pressure system. On Thursday this low moves out of the area, with clearing skies and milder temperatures. Friday and through the weekend we see a drying and warming trend, as low pressure continues to affect the northern Rocky Mountains and northwest US, and upper-level high pressure builds in across the area. CM
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7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - 30 August to 09 September, 2014 - Unseasonably cold and strong low pressure continues being generated out of the Gulf of Alaska, affecting mainly the northwest US and northern Rocky Mountains. The pattern should include some chances for summer thunderstorms, but for more brief periods than usual as this early season low pressure breaks the warming and heating, plus subtropical moisture, into shorter bursts. CM
Longer Range Outlook
As of now, August 2014, we are still on a path to see an El Nino Sea Surface Temperature pattern hold across the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. As of the last check, July has shown a possibly brief trend to cooler Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies across the eastern Equatorial Pacific (El Nino development has been put on hold for now). We will watch and see what happens.
The larger time-scale SST pattern in place right now is still a cool phase PDO, or negative PDO, which stands for Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This is a more long term pattern (decades), and it has made any recent years El Nino SST patterns weaker.
To reiterate, we expect an overall trend toward positive SST Anomalies along the eastern Equatorial Pacific. The likelihood of an El Nino pattern this fall and winter are really good, now "likely". Forecasts from other agencies are calling for El Nino conditions to hold this fall and winter. This would favor the southwest US (including southern California and across to Taos Ski Valley, even Aspen, Colorado) for heavier rain and snow this fall and mainly winter (2014-2015), after the wet monsoon summer across the southwest US. Northwest US areas, and southwest Canada, along with northern Colorado through Wyoming and the northern Rocky Mountains, should see an active monsoon (thunderstorms and showers) this summer, followed by a drier than average, or near average snowfall winter (2014-2015). This is our outlook for now, and we will update as info becomes available. All of this information is generated in-house.
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Monarch Mountain...all natural snow...all natural setting...all about having fun! Come see why so many people rave about what Monarch has to offer. Short lift lines, inexpensive restaurants, friendly staff on and off the mountain and no hassles of traffic to and from the ski area. Winter is on the way and we have made some great changes to add to Monarch's overall experience. We’ve widened some trails and added an additional 130 acres of awesome backcountry (extreme) skiing in Mirkwood Basin. This is an exciting change that we have been working on for quite some time and we’ve now opened the gates to our die-hard skiers/riders who are looking for new, challenging terrain. Did you say powder? We've got plenty of it here at Monarch because we still only use Mother Nature’s snow for our guests to ski and ride on. On a good snow day you just can't beat the all natural powder here. Monarch is also known to have some of the best tree skiing in the state, so be sure to check it out before the locals ski off the fresh stuff!!