Brian Head Resort (Base: 9,600', Top: 11,307')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Tuesday, May 15, 2012
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::: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY/ POSSIBLE SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/ AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/ COOLER WITH SHOWERS ON FRIDAY/ WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY :::
DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR TUESDAY, MAY 15th...Today and Wednesday --ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THEN SOME SHOWERS, INCREASED WIND-- -> On Tuesday we expect warmer temperatures and not much wind despite approaching low pressure (weak cut-off low), with some very isolated thunderstorms developing in the afternoon due to the added instability (low pressure system). Otherwise, mostly sunny skies continue. This weak low pressure system pushes through Tuesday evening through overnight, causing enough instability and moisture to allow for isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers on Wednesday.
Thursday --WARMER, ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS-- -> Weak low pressure moves out, with a stronger low pressure system moving in from the west. The atmosphere unstable enough, with enough moisture for some isolated afternoon thunderstorms + showers, with a continuance of this overnight.
Friday --THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS, COOLER-- -> The stronger low pressure system moves through mainly to the north, with the unstable south end of this low passing through northern Utah, and triggering some thunderstorms/ showers at any time. Cooler temperatures are expected along with windy conditions.
Saturday and Sunday --DRIER, WARMING TREND-- -> High pressure ridging aloft builds in across the Rocky Mountains and Utah's Wasatch, for mostly sunny skies and a warming trend. CM
Wednesday May 16, 2012
Hi 63°f / 17°c (base)
Lo 44°f / 7°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
SW at up to 15 mph.
|
Thursday May 17, 2012
Hi 63°f / 17°c (base)
Lo 49°f / 9°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mostly Sunny
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
SW at up to 35 mph.
|
Friday May 18, 2012
Hi 54°f / 12°c (base)
Lo 36°f / 2°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Chance of Thunderstorms
Precipitation:
40% Chance of rain showers (0.508 mm. | 0.02 in.)
Wind:
SW at up to 20 mph.
|
Saturday May 19, 2012
Hi 55°f / 13°c (base)
Lo 38°f / 3°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
NNW at up to 10 mph.
|
Sunday May 20, 2012
Hi 60°f / 16°c (base)
Lo 41°f / 5°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mostly Sunny
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
SSE at up to 10 mph.
|
Monday May 21, 2012
Hi 63°f / 17°c (base)
Lo 42°f / 6°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mostly Sunny
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
SW at up to 15 mph.
|
Long range forecast / discussion...May 21 to 24
--We may see some mostly isolated late day showers/ thunderstorms after the 20th (Sunday) as the ridge axis across the Rockies shifts somewhat east, due to low pressure pushing into the northwest US (another cycle). In this time frame the west coast may see some late season rain and mountain snow from a Gulf of Alaska cut-off low pressure system. We may have to shift gears on this, as the trend may actually be to record strong high pressure and a heat wave for late May. We will nail it down in the next update.
We have a "La Nada" SST pattern in place, expected to become an El Nino SST pattern this summer of 2012. An El Nino pattern often means greater than usual thunderstorm and shower activity for the summer months, and right now this is what we are expecting. The El Nino pattern may continue into the fall/ winter. CM
