6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Saturday, July 31, 2010

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 48, High 78 (Highest ~ 89 in 2002, Lowest ~ 39 in 2009)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elevation for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 38, High 72 (Highest ~ 83 in 2002, Lowest ~ 29 in 1978)
-At 12,500 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in Colorado); Low 36, High 61

::: SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS :::

SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR SATURDAY, JULY 31st...Today through Monday -> A lot of moisture, soaking rains, thunderstorms; A subtropical plume of moisture continues to stream across the area. Dewpoints are in the 45 to 50+ range, still high and subtropical. The 45 degree dewpoint is what we have up at 12,000 feet (KCCU). More scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with some heavy showers. On Sunday and Monday we still see a plume of moisture across the state, with added instability generated from upper level weather disturbances passing through. Due to these we are expecting an upswing in showers and thunderstorm activity. One thing is for sure, the grass will be even greener, and the fire danger lower...we like that.

Tuesday through Thursday -> Slightly decreased thunderstorms; High pressure which has been centered to the southeast starts to build in and shift westward. This cuts off some of the moisture that has been feeding in across the area. Due to this we expect afternoon thunderstorms and potential showers to decrease. Activity remains scattered however (30-40% coverage of storms in the afternoon), and temperatures are expected to rise.

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM

Sunday Aug 01, 2010 Hi 75°f / 58°f (base/top) Lo 49°f / 41°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy in the morning. Mostly cloudy and continued cool by afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/ evening, becoming isolated overnight. Heavy showers are possible. Precipitation: 50% chance for showers by afternoon, otherwise isolated. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4 to 12mph. Winds above timberline; S at 5 to 15mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.	Monday Aug 02, 2010 Hi 73°f / 58°f (base/top) Lo 51°f / 41°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly to mostly cloudy and continued cool, with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon/ evening, otherwise isolated. Heavy showers are again possible. Precipitation: 50% chance for showers in the afternoon/ evening, otherwise isolated. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Becoming W at 10 to 20mph. Winds above timberline; SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph. Wind gusts to 50mph are possible in any thunderstorm.	Tuesday Aug 03, 2010 Hi 77°f / 59°f (base/top) Lo 48°f / 41°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy, with scattered showers and thunderstorms by afternoon, becoming isolated in the evening/ overnight. Isolated heavy showers are possible. Precipitation: 40% chance for showers by afternoon. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: SE/ SW at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; W/ NW at 10 to 20mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
Wednesday Aug 04, 2010 Hi 79°f / 60°f (base/top) Lo 46°f / 42°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and warmer, with mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/ evening, ending overnight. Precipitation: 30% chance for showers by afternoon. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Becoming SW at 10 to 20mph. Winds above timberline; SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.	Thursday Aug 05, 2010 Hi 73°f / 23°c (base) Lo 51°f / 11°c (base) Sky Condition: Chance of Thunderstorms Precipitation: 40% Chance of rain showers Wind: WSW at up to 10 mph.	Friday Aug 06, 2010 Hi 71°f / 22°c (base) Lo 51°f / 11°c (base) Sky Condition: Chance of Thunderstorms Precipitation: 30% Chance of rain showers Wind: W at up to 10 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...August 05 to 08

--Late next week and weekend we see some classic August weather, including some thunderstorms (mostly isolated) and warmer (very warm) temperatures, otherwise mostly sunny/ partly cloudy skies through about the 10th or so.

The El Nino SST pattern is now neutral (La Nada), and a La Nina SST pattern will likely take over for the coming fall/ winter, through possibly the season following (through 2012). This usually bodes well for northern Colorado resorts, but we will work up some comparisons of analog years this summer to see what we may expect. CM