Where to be this weekend… April 5-7…

Where to be this weekend... April 5-7...
Posted April 4, 2019 at 12:39PST

INSTAGRAM Aspen-Snowmass lift ticket giveaway... score a couple of day passes to your favorite mountain for some end of season festivities and great snow! The chance of winning is really good! Go to http://www.instagram.com/predicting_sickdays/

A few storms move into the Pacific Northwest down through Tahoe, and across Utah and Colorado, affecting Sun Valley, Big Sky, and Jackson Hole as well, delivering snow, but with some snow level issues...

By Friday afternoon...
Screen Shot 2019-04-04 at 12.40.10

High pressure ridging will be building in across the west coast as we move toward Saturday and Sunday, but first, we have 2 storms, today and another on Friday, hit Tahoe with a few inches to 1/2 foot of snow this afternoon through tonight, then on Friday a stronger system moves through with 1/2 to 1 foot of snow. Show up on Saturday for a warmer and spring conditions kind of day in Tahoe! Snow levels will be above 6,000 feet, near 7,000 feet at times for Tahoe.

Utah and Colorado will then see some snow Friday and Saturday, and the higher elevations mean less snow level issues. Light to moderate snow totals are expected, with some powder days possible Saturday for Jackson Hole and Big Sky as Sun Valley to Jackson Hole and Big Sky resorts will see snow now and through Saturday. Saturday's storm system may generate some Sunday powder days across northern Utah and Colorado. Southwest slopes are favored... Go get it!

We are giving away 2 Aspen-Snowmass lift tickets for use next weekend or the following one (19th-21st)! There will be a lot of "end of season" stuff going on... Be sure to follow us on Instagram for a shot and the announcement! CM
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Where to be for the best snow this weekend! (8-10th Feb)

Where to be for the best snow this weekend! (8-10th Feb)
WHERE TO BE IN THE WESTERN USA THIS WEEKEND!

Here is our early forecast for this weekend...

Hands-down, Tahoe – Mammoth will be the winner in terms of snow all through this weekend, with NO snow level issues, in fact dry and cold powder is what we mostly expect, especially on Sunday...

We are expecting two storms to move through, the first of which will be the weaker of the two, and will also be faster moving one, mainly a wave out ahead of the main storm to hit Saturday and Sunday.

It looks like the snow will begin flying again mainly Friday afternoon through overnight, with 6 to 10 inches of fresh snow forecast to be on the ground for the Saturday morning snow report, for favored resorts across Northern Tahoe like Sugar Bowl and Squaw-Alpine, and 3 to 6 inches of snow for other areas.

Friday, First storm, GFS Snow Accumulation by Saturday 4am based on a 1:10 water to snow ratio, whereas the water to snow ratio will be closer to 1:15 (more snow than shown on this map, is what is expected by the Saturday morning snow report)...

Screen Shot 2019-02-06 at 14.03.38

A stronger and larger scale, slower moving, and offshore positioning storm system starts dropping in from out of the north, located offshore, looking stronger/ colder, more dynamic, and dropping heavy snow Saturday and Sunday, basically ALL weekend long! We expect to see  10  to 18 inches of snow each day all across Tahoe-Mammoth, for a total of 2 (south Tahoe, Mammoth) to 3+ (north Tahoe) feet of extra snow expected this weekend! Saturday and Sunday!

Friday through Sunday, 2 storms, GFS Snow Accumulation by Sunday 4pm (close of business for most resorts on Sunday) based on a 1:10 water to snow ratio, whereas the water to snow ratio will be closer to 1:15 and even 1:20 (possibly MUCH more snow than shown on this map, is what is expected by the Sunday afternoon at 4pm! The snow will continue through Monday morning, so show up Monday if you like less crowds, DEEP and Fresh snow, and sunshine! Cold-smoke, No-joke powder! (on top of deep bases!)

Screen Shot 2019-02-06 at 14.47.22

Combined with the snow that has already fallen across Tahoe-Mammoth in recent weeks, conditions will be amazing this weekend! In fact, we are expecting no snow level issues whatsoever, and even a drier/ colder cold-smoke powder, especially on Sunday. If you are just looking for the best and deepest snow, Tahoe-Mammoth is going to be the place out west, this coming weekend! Resorts like Sugar Bowl will be favored with these storms, as they lie more westward than most, and will take up the bulk of available moisture and thus snowfall! Enjoy!!

12Z-20190206_GFSUS_prec_kuchsnow-48-123-10-100(Check out the bulls-eye of heavy snow from Tahoe to southern Idaho)

Here is a video I put together explaining how moisture and dynamics are looking:



Meteorologist- CM
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TAHOE FORECAST DISCUSSION – Apr 11, 2019

TAHOE FORECAST DISCUSSION - Apr 11, 2019
LONGER RANGE FORECAST Updated Thursday Apr 11, 2019: One storm (weak) moves through Sunday (light snow up around 8,000+ feet, light rain showers below), and another late Monday through early Tuesday (2 to 4" of snow, snow level 5,000 to 6,000 feet, below resort elevations), for quick shots of light snow.

ALL next week (15th - 19th) looks mostly sunny and mild, spring weather and snow surface conditions...

We may see a shot of showers/ snow that weekend (20-21st April), then more high pressure ridging and mild spring weather.

The last days of April into early May could be busy again with low pressure systems and snowfall as the pattern reverts back to unsettled.

May overall, more busy with storms than usual, more rains for California, more snow for the Sierra Nevada. More details are coming. Do you like what we do? Please let us know. CM

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/snowforecast

TahoePic for site

NOTES: When paying full attention to the Tahoe area, which I have been watching weather patterns for since the 1970's, no one is more accurate in their forecasts of weather events/ timing/ snow totals, including in the long range. We gained quite a reputation for our Tahoe forecasts over a span of almost 15 years, gaining the attention of TV stations who used the forecasts with no mention of source, a movie financier who wanted me to be a part of a "think tank" group of professionals, radio stations, etc. Even major growers/ ag interests were using these free forecasts (for the longer range accuracy of weather event timing and significance), as an accurate long range forecaster is the equivalent of a "fortune teller", as told to me by the movie financier. There are competitors who charge for their info, and we do not, even though our information is a paid service in other formats we continue to deliver to agriculture customers to this day (Circa 1995). As I stated, I put my forecasts up against anyone else's in the area.

I never charged the site user for my services. The skier/ snowboarder has enough to pay for with fuel, lift tickets and passes, gear, life, etc., and I feel it is a service that should be provided by the host, the resort, to its visitors, even if in the form of advertising on the site. I have the same awesome traffic as the rest of the snow sports niche sites, but am not going to run Google ads so they can charge $20/ cpm and give us less than a dollar cpm (literally their crumbs, and what are they creating on a daily basis? weather forecasts? So, no thanks).

I hope this service is useful for you. CM
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TAHOE FORECAST DISCUSSION – JAN 11, 2019

TAHOE FORECAST DISCUSSION - JAN 11, 2019
SHORTER RANGE: Currently all storm energy is being pushed to the south into southern California, with some heavy snow for the SoCal Mountains. By this coming Monday night and Tuesday, we are expecting 6 to 12 inches of snow overall for the Mammoth through Tahoe area, as a weakened storm moves in but is deflected mostly, causing a glancing blow to the area, for limited moisture and dynamics, then, Next Tuesday through Thursday (15th-17th Jan)... HEAVY SNOW, multiple feet per day even, moves into Tahoe and Mammoth, thanks to deep moisture and strong dynamics, plus an always favored southwest flow of winds across the mountains. The last storm, late Wednesday through Thursday, looks the strongest and looks like it will move in across the area, for full forcing to deliver max snowfall. Show up next Friday for the most fresh + sunshine possibilities as clearing is expected... CM

LONGER RANGE: From the last update about a week ago, this unsettled period should last into around the 18th-20th of January (looking like it ends mostly Friday the 18th as the last storm departs), then in the last part of Jan and early February (through the 8th of Feb maybe), we start off with a snow down time under high pressure ridging. Storms begin to move in again after, frequently for frequent snow. CM

NOTES: When paying full attention to the Tahoe area, which I have been watching weather patterns for since the 1970's, no one is more accurate in their forecasts of weather events/ timing/ snow totals, including in the long range. We gained quite a reputation for our Tahoe forecasts over a span of almost 15 years, gaining the attention of TV stations who used the forecasts with no mention of source, a movie financier who wanted me to be a part of a "think tank" group of professionals, radio stations, etc. Even major growers/ ag interests were using these free forecasts (for the longer range accuracy of weather event timing and significance), as an accurate long range forecaster is the equivalent of a "fortune teller", as told to me by the movie financier. There are competitors who charge for their info, and we do not, even though our information is a paid service in other formats we continue to deliver to agriculture customers to this day (Circa 1995). As I stated, I put my forecasts up against anyone else's in the area.

I never charged the site user for my services. The skier/ snowboarder has enough to pay for with fuel, lift tickets and passes, gear, life, etc., and I feel it is a service that should be provided by the host, the resort, to its visitors, even if in the form of advertising on the site. I have the same awesome, nice traffic as the rest of the snow sports niche sites, but am not going to run Google ads so they can charge $20/ cpm and give us less than a dollar cpm (literally their crumbs, and what are they creating on a daily basis? weather forecasts? So, no thanks).

That said... I watch Colorado as that is where the business is for me. Recently, Bogus Basin joined the client list and now we work up a complete custom forecast for them as well, with a long range outlook. I will be drawing from that already completed work to deliver you some short, but mostly longer range outlooks for Tahoe, for now. I hope it is useful for you. CM
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Southern California – Updated Feb 14, 2018

Southern California - Updated Feb 14, 2018
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK from snowforecast.com - Feb 15, 2018

Wednesday, Feb 14, 2018

LONGER RANGE: Saturday/ Sunday (17th-18th) through late next week we expect a busy pattern, with all areas of the west seeing frequent snow, some areas like Colorado should see snow every day it looks like, and with heavy snow for Colorado overall Sunday through next week, more moderate to maybe heavy for Utah and the northern Rocky Mountains (including the inland Northwest)/ Southwest Canada, and mostly light snow across Tahoe, but at least it will be snowing again. Winter is definitely coming back!

--> Late February and into March should be busy for the western US, with frequent storms for Tahoe and Utah, moving across Colorado also as the east Pacific ridge breaks down some (Feb 20th-22nd), allowing strong Pacific energy and moisture to move into the western US and southwest Canada, with abundant snowfall for all areas including those parched in recent months like in California. This should have been the pattern across the western US already, if patterns were anything near "normal" so far in 2018... Do You want to see OTHER AREAS mentioned, email me and let me know... CM


Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

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