PLEASE NOTE: The temperatures shown for "base" are more of a mid mountain temperature forecast. In season (October through April) we will be back to forecasting base and top temperatures.

OVERALL SITUATION TODAY -//> Activity increases for more northern I-70 resorts today as a trough moves across to the north and provides some instability. Showers and thunderstorms are likely today.

Thursday and Friday -//> A high pressure ridge builds in, centered overhead (594+dM), and this allows some drier air to begin filtering in and skies start clearing out. Warming temperatures aloft increase stability in the atmosphere also (decreasing chances for T-storms). We expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the area Thursday afternoon/ evening after a partly cloudy day, then reduced to isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday -//> We see a gradually increasing chance for thunderstorms and showers as high pressure aloft weakens, and shifts slightly eastward as a low pressure trough moves into the Northwest US again. The trough and shift of high pressure is expected to do 2 things, cause the upper level flow to be more out of the subtropically moist southwest, and allow temperatures aloft to cool for increased instability (better chance for thunderstorms/ showers in unstable and moist air). Even with this shift though, thunderstorm chances are not in the "likely" category (60% chance or better), but we will watch. CM

-Next week we see fair chances for thunderstorms each afternoon/ evening (20-40%), as high pressure ridging is overhead to east of the area, with some moisture feeding in from the south/ southwest. We will have to watch for any tropical systems that could increase our chances for rain and thunderstorms as they get dragged into the flow aloft. Temperatures look like they will be near average to warmer than average, with humidity on the higher side. CM