December 02, 2018 - Southwest Canada (BC and Alberta) Long Range Weather Outlook
Some snow lingers across southeast BC (including Revelstoke MR) this morning, but clears out in dry north winds today (Monday), then, No storms, CHILLY, high pressure ridge across western Canada, sunshine for the mountain, but good snow-preserving COLD air under a north/ northwest flow of winds overhead and across the mountain.
HOW DID WE DO (please contact email@example.com or comment below)?
Let us know please... This is what we WERE forecasting for opening weekend
: "Friday (opening day at the stoke
) through the weekend, we expect storm energy to track just to the south while a high pressure ridge starts building in over western Canada, with most snow hitting the Pacific Northwest of the US, some occasional snow for the mid and lower mountain areas in southwest Canada, in much COLDER air as it is dragged out of the north. You will see most of the sunshine on the upper mountain. I say expect some nice but much colder conditions and sunshine mixed with clouds, mostly in the valley and base areas, for this weekend (bring some layers)!"
GREAT START AND WHAT IS COMING THIS COMING WEEK:
-What a season start! The snow and conditions have been amazing! For this week:
Some snow lingers across southeast BC (including Revelstoke MR
) this morning, but clears out in dry north winds today (Monday), then, No storms
, CHILLY, high pressure ridge across western Canada, sunshine for the mountain, but good snow-preserving COLD air under a north/ northwest flow of winds overhead and across the mountain. Some "Alberta Clipper" type low pressure systems may clip the area with some clouds and light snow showers at times, mainly mid-week... (see animation of GFS snow potential, below)
Here is Revelstoke buried under, now 357cm (141") of snowfall to date!
Here is the snow outlook from the GFS, for this coming week and coming weekend of December 3rd - 9th... Notice the snow clipping the BC/ AB border around Wednesday (Tuesday night through Wednesday night).
It looks like El Nino is not an official anomaly yet, as I expected in my September LR forecast
, so we are in an ENSO Neutral phase, though in the latest update from NOAA, we are seeing warming waters, still a weak El Nino at best. From the last update: "Next week we expect lots more sunshine on the mountain with some fog at times in the valley areas, ALL next week."
<-- Last Tuesday (Nov 27th) when we updated the last forecast, were talking about this week, which is very much on track (compare to the short range outlook above)... CM
Next week, 10th onward, we expect regular snow storms and some significant snow to return, though it looks like the trend with this pattern is for storms to split (upper-level high pressure ridge anomaly over western Canada) as they move into the west coast, sending energy south into the United States, but because these look like strong and cold systems (ask Niseko, Japan
) they are still capable of good snowfall across southwest Canada, and also, frequent. It looks like 3 storms total for next week (10th - 15th), with the last one toward the 13th-15th (late that week, and the weekend) possibly the strongest.
Here is that period represented by the GFS:
(NO CHANGE from the last LR update) : We expect a slow down and more sunshine as we approach the Christmas and New Year holiday period, but not before some nice dumps of snow pile up through and past mid-December (until the 20th at least)... There will still be some storm energy at times for some fresh snow during the holiday break. In January storms should kick in again on a more regular basis. More updates are coming. Do you have any ideas on what you want to see in our discussions? Please contact through the site! We do not charge for any of our info, and have been providing it since 1998, "Predicting Sick Days since 1998"! CM