Taos Ski Valley (Base: 9,207', Top: 11,819')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Wednesday, July 23, 2008OVERALL SITUATION TODAY -//> We expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/ evening for the Taos Ski Valley.
Thursday and Friday -//> A high pressure ridge builds in, centered just to the north (594+dM), and this allows some drier air to begin filtering in and skies start clearing out. Warming temperatures aloft increase stability in the atmosphere also (decreasing chances for T-storms). We expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the area Thursday afternoon/ evening after a partly cloudy day, then reduced to isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
Saturday and Sunday -//> We see a gradually increasing chance for thunderstorms and showers as high pressure aloft weakens, and shifts slightly eastward as a low pressure trough moves into the Northwest US again. Temperatures aloft to cool for increased instability (better chance for thunderstorms/ showers in unstable and moist air). Even with this shift though, thunderstorm chances are not in the "likely" category (60% chance or better), but we will watch. CM
Wednesday Jul 23, 2008
Hi 77°f / 25°c (base)
Lo 47°f / 8°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and warmer, with scattered thunderstorms and showers developing by afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms end overnight.
Precipitation:
30% chance for showers by afternoon (1.25 to 3.75 mm. | .05 to 0.15 in.)
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
SW at 10 to 20mph. Gusts to 45mph possible in any thunderstorm.
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Thursday Jul 24, 2008
Hi 77°f / 25°c (base)
Lo 46°f / 8°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Chance of Thunderstorms
Precipitation:
Slight Chance (20%) of rain showers (1.27 mm. | 0.05 in.)
Snow Potential
Wind:
SE at up to 5 mph.
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Friday Jul 25, 2008
Hi 77°f / 25°c (base)
Lo 46°f / 8°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms
Precipitation:
30% Chance of rain showers (1.27 mm. | 0.05 in.)
Snow Potential
Wind:
S at up to 10 mph.
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Saturday Jul 26, 2008
Hi 80°f / 27°c (base)
Lo 45°f / 7°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
Wind:
S at up to 10 mph.
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Sunday Jul 27, 2008
Hi 78°f / 26°c (base)
Lo 45°f / 7°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
Wind:
S at up to 5 mph.
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Monday Jul 28, 2008
Hi 80°f / 27°c (base)
Lo 44°f / 7°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms
Precipitation:
Slight Chance (20%) of rain showers
Snow Potential
Wind:
WSW at up to 5 mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...July 29 to August 01-Next week we see fair chances for thunderstorms each afternoon/ evening (20-40%), as high pressure ridging is overhead to east of the area, with some moisture feeding in from the south/ southwest. We will have to watch for any tropical systems that could increase our chances for rain and thunderstorms as they get dragged into the flow aloft. Temperatures look like they will be near average to warmer than average, with humidity on the higher side. CM
