Smokey Mountain Ski Club ↑38° ↓30° Forecast:   3" Base:   7"
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Today's Forecast
↑38° ↓30°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓37° / ↑27°
  • Humidity↓89% / ↑99%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow3"
  • Regional Snow Depth7"
Cloudy before noon and then cloudy later into the evening. Chance of rain in the early morning and then snow in the afternoon, snow in the evening. Thunderstorms possible throughout the day.
Snowfall forecasted to be a trace amount in the early morning, then another dusting before noon and a trace in the afternoon followed by another 1 to 2 inches into the evening.
Potential Precip: 0.2 to 0.98 inches
Winds NW 7 to 16 mph through the morning shifting to NE 11 to 22 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 32 mph. Wind chill expected to be 14 to 28 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Monday the 22nd
↑32° ↓15°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓29° / ↑13°
  • Humidity↓84% / ↑94%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow1"
  • Regional Snow Depth7"
Overcast throughout the day. Chance of rain in the early morning, snow after daylight and then snow in the afternoon, snow in the evening. Thunderstorms possible throughout the day.
Expected snowfall to be a dusting in the early morning, then another trace amount before noon and a dusting in the afternoon.
Potential Precip: 0.08 to 0.4 inches
Winds N 14 to 26 mph through the morning shifting to N 12 to 23 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 28 mph. Expected wind chill to be -5 to 17 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Tuesday the 23rd
↑22° ↓10°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓17° / ↑9°
  • Humidity↓82% / ↑98%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth7"
Mostly cloudy through the morning, and then overcast through the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms possible throughout the day.
No snow.
No precipitation expected.
Winds variable at 3 to 10 mph through the morning shifting to E 6 to 15 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 19 mph. Expected wind chill to be -8 to 13 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Wednesday the 24th
↑27° ↓18°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓23° / ↑17°
  • Humidity↓83% / ↑99%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow2"
  • Regional Snow Depth8"
Overcast becoming mostly cloudy through the morning, and then overcast through the afternoon and evening. Chance of rain in the early morning and then snow in the evening. Thunderstorms possible throughout the day.
Expected snowfall to be a dusting before noon and a trace in the afternoon, then another 1 to 2 inches into the evening.
Potential Precip: 0.05 to 0.25 inches
Winds E 8 to 19 mph through the morning shifting to N 21 to 33 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 41 mph. Expected wind chill to be -2 to 11 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Thursday the 25th
↑21° ↓16°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓18° / ↑10°
  • Humidity↓85% / ↑91%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow2"
  • Regional Snow Depth9"
Overcast throughout the day. Chance of rain in the early morning, snow after daylight and then snow in the afternoon, snow in the evening. Thunderstorms possible throughout the day.
Snowfall forecasted to be a trace amount in the early morning followed by another trace before noon and a trace in the afternoon followed by another trace later into the evening.
Potential Precip: 0.08 to 0.38 inches
Winds 21 to 33 mph through the morning with gusts up to 41 mph. Wind chill expected to be -6 to -1 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Friday the 26th
↑13° ↓9°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓8° / ↑5°
  • Humidity↓82% / ↑89%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow1"
  • Regional Snow Depth9"
Cloudy through the morning, and then mostly cloudy through the afternoon and evening. Chance of rain in the early morning, snow after daylight and then snow in the afternoon. Thunderstorms possible throughout the day.
Snowfall expected to be a trace in the early morning and a dusting in the afternoon.
Potential Precip: 0.02 to 0.08 inches
Winds. Expected wind chill to be -14 to -8 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
  • Last Update21 Oct
  • Snow Past 24 hrs"
  • Snow Past 48 hrs0"
  • Season Total"
  • Average Base Depth"
  • Today's Snow Potential3"
Comments
  • High Lift Elevation0ft
  • Base Elevation0ft
  • Vertical Drop0ft
  • Longest TrailUnreported
  • Trails of
  • Lifts of
  • Acreage of ( )
Other Info
  • Additional ReportsNone Available
No Webcams Available
No Webcams Available
Contact
  • No Contact Information Available.
Location
  • City: Labrador City
  • Country: Canada
  • State: Newfoundland
Whats coming for 2018-2019 for Southwest Canada and the Northwest USA?!
Fri, August 31st, 2018 (begun this article)
Wednesday September 19, 2018 (I finally finished it!)

MODOKI EL NINO = bad, REGULAR EL NINO = not as bad, WEAK EL NINO to ENSO Neutral = possibly good! There are many possibilities with the last one (the one we think is coming) but we will nail it down for you! 

WA/ ID/ MT, and Inland Empire (Spokane-Coeur d'Alene)
FALL and WINTER SEASON FORECAST FROM SNOWFORECAST.COM!

...WHAT IS THE FORECAST?...
 OCTOBER - (Above average snowfall and below average temperatures) Early season cold and October snows for the ski resorts, though best snow and coldest temperatures will be to the east of the divide and Wyoming/ southwest Montana. There will be enough cold to test out any snowmaking equipment, and the early snows will linger for some hours and even days to help cool the soil for some good base building when we move into November...
NOVEMBER - (Above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures) Continued good early season snow and lower than usual snow levels with early first measurable  snows in the Inland Empire of Spokane-CDA, likely in early November. We expect some Thanksgiving opening days...
DECEMBER - (Near to above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures through mid December, then dropping off to below average snowfall and near average temperatures) Good snowfall events through mid December and near to below average temperatures, then incoming storms start shifting to the south on a different storm  track, with lighter snows across the region as we move into the holidays.
JANUARY ONWARD, MORE COMING SOON - ? Stay tuned, but a brief synopsis: Dry for most of January with above average temperatures. Storms return in February with near to a bit below average snowfall (could still be good), then March through the rest of the season looks near to warmer than average in temperature, with below average snows, though April could produce some big storms and powder days to pass through the region, building the late season snowpack. More details are coming, and I will be naming resorts and forecasting long range snow totals. CM

...WHAT ARE THE FACTORS AND OPINIONS?...
Here are my August 31 observations: An El Nino that "wants" to happen, but meager warming to even some cooling in the key Nino regions (recent), and a mostly neutral status (currently) is not showing much hope for any El Nino pattern that may be classified as moderate or strong. In fact, I will say that we will not see a moderate or strong El Nino SST pattern this 2018-2019 season, and the NOAA forecasted weak El Nino is looking like a "maybe".
And, my September 15 observations: Latest guidance indicates that the El Nino SST anomaly will be weak, at best, in my opinion. Here is why: Cooler eastern Pacific waters (Nino 3.4 region)/ Subsurface waters heat content (180-100W Lat) has decreased/ and the current pattern is showing mostly a general cooling and not warming overall, though in the last 7 days, eastern Pacific surface waters off the coast of Ecuador (means "Equator") have warmed . Its mid September and this El Nino event should be a bit more evident. Its not. Even NOAA has backed off a bit with a 65% chance of El Nino formation, instead of the 70% they had called for early on in the summer when this anomaly looked more likely. For them to back off a bit like that indicates definite lost confidence, and this is not surprising, as I lost confidence in it occurring myself, back in July. Things work a bit slower in these large organizations, while us "loose cannons" (whatever in the hell that means) can blast off at will. Haha.

LONGRANGE_ENSO cpc _human reasoning_2*An El Nino is still favored according to the above Climate Prediction Center chart*

LONGRANGE_SubsurfaceTempAnomalies*We have seen some areas of cooling in the Nino 1+2 and 3 regions, as this El Nino struggles to form. This is indicating cooling in the subsurface waters, which is a factor that is looked at for potential SST's*

LONGRANGE_Last Year of Anomalies_best chart_Marked up*As of Sep 12, there is some warming going on again in the referenced "Nino 3" region, so overall there is a positive SST anomaly, but mostly less than +.5 (in yellow on the above chart), which is the threshold that needs to be met for 3 consecutive months before an actual El Nino pattern is recognized. For now we are in an "ENSO neutral" status.

SOLAR MINIMUM: In terms of sunspot activity, there is currently almost none, or even "none", zero, zilch, nada, many days. Decreased or zero sunspot activity also affects our weather patterns. The chart below shows how we are in a solar "grand minimum" right now:

LONGRANGE_Sunspot Activity_Solar Minimum
Side note, look at the last minimum, in 07-08-09', when  the Inland Northwest had the most snow EVER recorded, back to back years, one with 170+ inches of snow in Coeur d'Alene, ID.

Also, we have seen some recent serious weather extremes this Summer of 2018, and have no reason to believe that we will not see similar extremes this fall and winter in North America:

From extreme heat in Europe, notably northern Europe:

LONGRANGE_Extremes_HeatInScandanavia

To extreme snow and cold in August:
LONGRANGE_Extremes_Salzburg
 NOAA: So to reiterate, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was forecasting a 60% likelihood for formation of an El Nino SST pattern this fall, and a 70% chance for the winter, 2018-2019, while now those forecasts are down to 50-55% and 65-70%, respectively. Large organizations like NOAA are not going to go backward on the forecast (decreased % chance), like this without very good reason, like, "its not happening like we thought it would guys"...

SNOWFORECAST.COM: At this point, a "weak" El Nino SST anomaly is the forecast from NOAA. I have believed since June that this would be a weak El Nino pattern that sets up, based on the afore-mentioned trend, but am now wondering if this El Nino will even show up at all. For those who desire to see some at least average rain and snowfall this winter, a weak El Nino or no El Nino may be best. If an El Nino, weak, does form, it is looking more likely to be the Modoki version, which on average, sucks (dry) all across the western US. Thankfully, as a weak factor (there are other factors), a weak El Nino of any kind will have a "weaker" influence on the weather patterns we see this fall and winter, THANKFULLY. We are also looking (currently) at a weakly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more of a long term state of ocean water temps), which will not help in the El Nino department. Neutral to "very weak El Nino" is what we are forecasting as we move into fall and maybe through the winter, at best +.5 which is barely classified as an El Nino. As well, with the Grand Solar Minimum, expect the unexpected, and so far, that has proven true in many parts of the world. How will all of these factors; Weak El Nino, or even "ENSO Neutral" SST anomaly, neutral PDO, GSM (solar), and my own intuition, affect the Northwest US and Western Canada forecast? Just scroll back to the top to find out!

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

Some References:
COLD AND SNOW:  https://www.theweek.info/index.php?newsid=3760 (Salzburg, over 1 foot of snow in August!)

 

HEAT:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/17/scorching-scandinavia-record-breaking-heat-hits-norway-finland-and-sweden (90+ degrees in Norway, all time record high temps!)

Great resource for current SST’s and anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

International Research Institute: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Latest ENSO Discussion: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php

Space Weather ("Solar Minimum"): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

NCEP model forecast SST anomalies (1 model forecasting La Nina): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas2.html

The ONE outlier model forecasting La Nina: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_GEOS5v2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

Loads of the latest SST charts from ESRL, knock yourself out: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Best anomaly chart (in my opinion): https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.hov.gif

Detailed ENSO Discussion from NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

More info/ charts on Modoki El Nino: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

El Nino/ La Nina years/ ONI: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

A GREAT resource for "no BS" historical ski season info: http://bestsnow.net/

Latest PDO and history: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

 

Expanded Outlook

Sunday
↑38° / ↓30°
iconWinds: NW 7 to 16 mph, then NE 11 to 22 mph
iconForecast Snow: 3"
icon

AM

icon
↑38° / ↓32°
Sky
Cloudy before noon. Chance of rain in the early morning. Morning thunderstorms possible.
Snow
Snowfall forecasted to be a trace in the early morning, then another trace before noon.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.1 to 0.48 inches
Winds
Morning winds NW 7 to 16 mph with gusts up to 17 mph. Wind chill expected to be 18 to 28 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑34° / ↓30°
Sky
Overcast into the evening. Expect periods of snow through the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms possible through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
Snowfall expected to be a dusting in the afternoon, then another 1 to 2 inches into the evening.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.1 to 0.5 inches
Winds
Afternoon winds NE 11 to 22 mph with gusts up to 32 mph. Wind chill expected to be 14 to 21 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,832ft
temperature graph
Monday
↑32° / ↓15°
iconWinds: N 14 to 26 mph, then N 12 to 23 mph
iconForecast Snow: 1"
icon

AM

icon
↑32° / ↓21°
Sky
Cloudy before noon. Chance of rain in the early morning and then snow after daylight. Morning thunderstorms possible.
Snow
Snowfall expected to be a trace amount in the early morning, then another trace amount before noon.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.02 to 0.08 inches
Winds
Morning winds N 14 to 26 mph with gusts up to 28 mph. Wind chill expected to be 2 to 17 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑25° / ↓15°
Sky
Overcast into the evening. Expect periods of snow through the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms possible through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
Snowfall forecasted to be a dusting in the afternoon.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.03 inches
Winds
Afternoon winds N 12 to 23 mph with gusts up to 29 mph. Expected wind chill to be -5 to 7 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,832ft
temperature graph
Tuesday
↑22° / ↓10°
iconWinds: variable 3 to 10 mph, then E 6 to 15 mph
iconForecast Snow: 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑17° / ↓10°
Sky
Mostly cloudy through the morning. Morning thunderstorms possible.
Snow
None expected in the morning hours.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected in the morning hours.
Winds
Morning winds variable at 3 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be -8 to 5 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑22° / ↓17°
Sky
Cloudy through the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms possible through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
No snow through the afternoon and evening.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected.
Winds
Afternoon winds E 6 to 15 mph with gusts up to 19 mph. Wind chill expected to be 5 to 13 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,832ft
temperature graph
Wednesday
↑27° / ↓18°
iconWinds: E 8 to 19 mph, then N 21 to 33 mph
iconForecast Snow: 2"
icon

AM

icon
↑25° / ↓18°
Sky
Overcast becoming mostly cloudy through the morning. Chance of rain in the early morning. Morning thunderstorms possible.
Snow
Snowfall forecasted to be a dusting before noon.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.03 inches
Winds
Morning winds E 8 to 19 mph with gusts up to 24 mph. Wind chill expected to be -2 to 10 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑27° / ↓22°
Sky
Cloudy through the afternoon and evening. Chance of snow in the evening. Thunderstorms possible through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
Snowfall forecasted to be a trace in the afternoon followed by another 1 to 2 inches later into the evening.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.05 to 0.23 inches
Winds
Afternoon winds N 21 to 33 mph with gusts up to 41 mph. Expected wind chill to be 1 to 11 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,832ft
temperature graph
Thursday
↑21° / ↓16°
iconWinds: 21 to 33 mph, then variable to mph
iconForecast Snow: 2"
icon

AM

icon
↑21° / ↓19°
Sky
Cloudy before noon. Chance of rain in the early morning and then snow after daylight. Morning thunderstorms possible.
Snow
Expected snowfall to be a dusting in the early morning followed by another trace before noon.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.02 to 0.1 inches
Winds
Morning winds 21 to 33 mph with gusts up to 41 mph. Expected wind chill to be -4 to -1 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑20° / ↓16°
Sky
Cloudy into the evening. Expect periods of snow through the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms possible through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
Snowfall forecasted to be a trace in the afternoon, then another dusting in the evening.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.02 to 0.1 inches
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at to 8 mph. Wind chill expected to be -6 to -1 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,832ft
temperature graph
Friday
↑13° / ↓9°
iconWinds: variable to mph, then variable to mph
iconForecast Snow: 1"
icon

AM

icon
↑12° / ↓11°
Sky
Overcast through the morning. Chance of rain in the early morning and then snow after daylight. Morning thunderstorms possible.
Snow
Expected snowfall to be a dusting in the early morning.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.03 inches
Winds
Morning winds variable at to 8 mph. Wind chill expected to be -10 to -9 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑13° / ↓9°
Sky
Mostly cloudy into the evening. Chance of snow in the afternoon. Thunderstorms possible through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
Snowfall forecasted to be a trace amount in the afternoon.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.03 inches
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at to 8 mph. Wind chill expected to be -14 to -8 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,832ft
temperature graph

Snow Maker's Corner

Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature30°
  • Soil Low Temperature29°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature30°
  • Soil Low Temperature27°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature27°
  • Soil Low Temperature22°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature26°
  • Soil Low Temperature23°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature26°
  • Soil Low Temperature23°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart