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Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Monday (at 6:42am), May 02, 2016
Today through Wednesday We are in a drying and warming pattern, with lingering isolated afternoon thunderstorms today, otherwise dry, mostly sunny, and warm through Wednesday as upper level high pressure ridging takes hold across Colorado.
Thursday through Sunday Strong late season low pressure moves into the western US again, with initially just some late day isolated thunderstorms, but by Saturday and Sunday we are looking at possibly heavy snow mainly above 9,000 feet, and even some snow in the town Aspen and other areas to 8,000 feet on Sunday. This looks like another cut-off 4-corners type low, which may hit Denver and the front range with snow as well.
LONGER RANGE FORECAST -
Next Friday through Sunday (6th - 8th) looks unsettled with more low pressure and potential high country snow. This one does not look as cold, so snow should be confined to areas near 10,000 feet or so. It looks like a busy May, with more low pressure systems moving in at times.
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Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
Spring into Summer - The El Nino SST pattern is weakening, and expected to transition to a La Nina as we move into early summer. What we are expecting for ski resort regions is this;
Northwest US/ Southwest Canada/ WA/ OR/ ID/ MT/ WY, and AB/ BC - Milder than average temperatures with average amounts of valley rain and mountain snow for March/ April (in other words, good enough to build snow pack and keep resorts happy), then wetter and cooler than usual for May/ June (even some additional snow pack in the mountains mainly above 5,000 feet), dry in July/ August except for the occasional thunderstorm...
Southwest US/ SoCal to Mammoth/ Arizona/ New Mexico/ southern Utah/ southwest Colorado - Cooler than average temperatures with above average amounts of valley rain and mountain snow for March/ April (in other words, more than usual additional snow pack), and continued wetter/ cooler than usual for May/ June (additional snow pack for the Sierra Nevada Mountains mainly above 7,000 feet), then dry in July/ August except for the occasional thunderstorm (north), but a possibly stronger than usual monsoon pattern (more thunderstorms/ rain) for eastern CA deserts/ mountains (incl. Big Bear) through New Mexico...
Colorado/ northern New Mexico - Near average amounts of valley rain and mountain snow with slightly above average temperatures for March but mainly April, then near average precip + near average temperatures for May/ June. Cooler and wetter than usual conditions are expected (north) in July/ August with greater amounts of monsoon pattern rains/ storms, near average temps and precip (south)...CM
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