Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Wednesday July 30, 2014 - Today we expect to see some drying as the upper-level weather disturbances move east/ north, and the bulk of moisture is also pushed out. We expect more sun today, and less thunderstorm activity, though still scattered coverage and showers likely. As high pressure shifts to the southwest of Colorado, we expect less moisture across the area, more sunshine, and only isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers each afternoon after mostly sunny mornings, Thursday and through the weekend, as a northwest flow aloft continues. CM

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7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - 04 to 14 August, 2014 - Next week (Monday, August 4th and onward) we see upper-level high pressure ridging across the west (centered mainly near the 4-corners region ~ AZ/ NM/ UT/ CO), with a low to mid grade monsoon pattern across the southwest US (Arizona/ New Mexico), feeding mostly isolated afternoon thunderstorms and near to above average temperatures for Colorado, scattered (or better) thunderstorm coverage each afternoon across northern New Mexico, and otherwise mostly sunny weather is expected. We will continue to have to watch for the influence of tropical systems, which would increase shower and thunderstorm potential further. CM

Longer Range Outlook

As of now, July 2014, we are still on a path to see an El Nino Sea Surface Temperature pattern develop across the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (SSTs near to slightly below average). In fact, as of the last check, all of May and up until the last check of the charts (July), we see a trend to warmer Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (or at least warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) holding overall) across the eastern Equatorial Pacific (good sign).



The larger time-scale SST pattern in place right now is still a cool phase PDO, or negative PDO, which stands for Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This is a more long term pattern (decades), and it has made any recent years El Nino SST patterns weaker.

To reiterate, we expect (and have seen) a trend toward positive SST Anomalies along the eastern Equatorial Pacific as of June 2, 2014 (SST's just west of South America along the equator are warming up, still). The likelihood of an El Nino pattern materializing by this summer and fall are becoming greater, now "likely". Forecasts from other agencies are calling for El Nino conditions to develop this summer and fall as well. This would favor the southwest US (including southern California and across to Taos Ski Valley, even Aspen, Colorado) for heavier rain and snow this fall and mainly winter (2014-2015), after a potentially wet monsoon summer across the southwest US including southern California through Colorado. Northwest US areas, and southwest Canada, along with northern Colorado through Wyoming and the northern Rocky Mountains, should see an active monsoon (thunderstorms and showers) this summer, followed by a drier than average, or near average snowfall winter (2014-2015). This is our outlook for now, and we will update as info becomes available. All of this information is generated in-house.

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