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Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Monday (at 6:12am), May 30, 2016
We expect scattered afternoon/ evening thunderstorms and showers today through Wednesday, more concentrated over the divide, as decent moisture levels remain acrsos the area, and low pressure moving by to the north helps by adding some limited upper-level instability for T-storm growth. Mostly isolated thunderstorms and showers are possibe overnight in this time frame. The weather pattern becomes more stable on Wednesday and expecially Thursday through Saturday, with less chance for thunderstorms, then no thunderstorms expected for Aspen by Thursday. T-storms (mainly afternoon) will linger along the divide as always. Temperatures are expected to get pretty warm this coming weekend, hitting the 80's in Aspen, as the hottest parts of the desert southwest hit 115+. CM.
LONGER RANGE FORECAST -
Next week (5th of June onward) we expect a warm and dry week under strong high pressure ridging, with the usual mostly isolated afternoon thunderstorm activity possible each day.
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Spring into Summer - The El Nino SST pattern is weakening, and is transitioning to a La Nina this early summer. What we are expecting for ski resort regions is this;
Northwest US/ Southwest Canada/ WA/ OR/ ID/ MT/ WY, and AB/ BC - Wetter and cooler than usual for May/ June (even some additional snow pack in the mountains mainly above 5,000 feet), dry in July/ August except for the occasional thunderstorm...
Southwest US/ SoCal to Mammoth/ Arizona/ New Mexico/ southern Utah/ southwest Colorado - Wetter/ cooler than usual for May/ June (additional snow pack for the Sierra Nevada Mountains mainly above 7,000 feet), then dry in July/ August except for the occasional thunderstorm (north), but a possibly stronger than usual monsoon pattern (more thunderstorms/ rain) for eastern CA deserts/ mountains (incl. Big Bear) through New Mexico...
Colorado/ northern New Mexico - Near average precip + near average temperatures for May/ June. Cooler and wetter than usual conditions are expected (north) in July/ August with greater amounts of monsoon pattern rains/ storms, near average temps and precip (south)...CM
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