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Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Wednesday, October 01, 2014 - Today we expect increasing clouds and showers as a strong and cold weather disturbance moves in, with cold air for the first of October, and "snowy" weather mainly above 9,000 feet, and some snow to 8,000 feet tonight as a cold front pushes through, and this will likely be Aspen's first shot of snow in town for the season, though it will likely be light as moisture shallows out with the passage of the cold front. Low pressure clears out on an unusually cold Thursday, with much more sunshine, chilly temperatures, and drier northwest winds (a real fall-like day). Break out the hot cocoa! Friday through Monday we expect milder temperatures and mostly sunny skies under an upper-level high pressure ridge. CM
Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - 07 to 17 October, 2014 - It looks like we may be experiencing a period of dry and milder weather almost this whole period of time, under an upper-level high pressure ridge across the western US (almost all of the western US may be affected by this ridge, with warmer than average weather and mostly sunny skies). We will be watching. CM
Longer Range Outlook
As of now, October 2014, we are still on a path to see an El Nino Sea Surface Temperature pattern hold across the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies yield a weak El Nino pattern across the eastern Equatorial Pacific (El Nino development is on track, but it will be weak, still favorable for California and the desert Southwest, plus much of Colorado and northern New Mexico).
A weak El Nino is now being predicted for this fall and winter, into early 2015. It looks like the early season (October/ November) will see more rain and snow for southern and central California, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado. This should help kick off the early season for places like Mammoth Mountain. This should also help build up a better than average base of snow for Aspen-Snowmass and Taos Ski Valley. Temperatures are expected to be near and below average for these areas as well, which helps. Maybe Thanksgiving will be pretty good for many more areas across the southwest, and even for Squaw Valley in Tahoe. The Northwest US is expecting a drier and milder than usual fall, with less snowfall than average, though with their usual heavy snowfall, especially in the Cascades, this drier/ milder than average fall season could still be good for resorts across the northwest US, mainly along the Cascades, less so inland.
The larger time-scale SST pattern in place right now is still a cool phase PDO, or negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). This is a more long term pattern (decades), and it has made any recent years El Nino SST patterns weaker (it looks like this is the case with the current El Nino, which was expected to be strong initially.
To summarize, the possibility of an El Nino pattern this fall and winter are "likely". Forecasts from other agencies are calling for El Nino conditions to hold this fall and winter. This would favor the southwest US (including southern California and across to Taos Ski Valley, even Aspen, Colorado) for heavier rain and snow this fall and mainly winter (2014-2015), after the wet monsoon summer across the southwest US (we forecast this in the spring). Northwest US areas, and southwest Canada, along with northern Colorado through Wyoming and the northern Rocky Mountains, should expect a drier than average, or near average snowfall winter (2014-2015). Tahoe/ Mammoth should see near average snowfall this winter. This is our outlook for now, and we will update as more info becomes available. All of this information is generated in-house.
We will keep this outlook updated as more information becomes available. If you want to know when the snow is coming (and be able to set unlimited alerts for any resort), within 5 minutes or less of us (our our sources) entering the data into any of our forecasts, be sure to download the app.
Loveland is Colorado's closest major ski area to Denver, located on the Continental Divide and just short of the Eisenhower Tunnel in the Arapaho National Forest. Loveland is the 10th largest ski resort in Colorado. You get 1,365 acres of crisp, Rocky Mountain snow with 70 runs to choose from and nine lifts whisking you up to the top. On-mountain improvements include upgraded snowmaking and grooming with the addition of six new fan guns, four new Piston Bully grooming machines and a winch cat. To get the lay of the land, take a complimentary, 90-minute mountain tour. Meet at the top of Chair #1 at 10:30 a.m. every day. Loveland is actually two ski areas connected by a long, horizontal lift and a shuttle bus. Loveland Basin, with terrain for all abilities, has five chairs and a Poma lift serving 901 acres. Loveland Valley, which caters to beginners, has two lifts serving just 67 acres. Even good skiers, however, should investigate the Valley on windy days. Its tree-sheltered runs can harbor excellent snow when the Basin's slopes grow firm. If you ski as if you're on fire and you aren't afraid of heights, Loveland is your dream come true.