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Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Thursday, November 26, 2015
TODAY through SATURDAY - Strong and cold low pressure is presently sitting parked over eastern Nevada and Utah (as of 5am Thursday), and sits to the west of Colorado today and for several days causing an extended period of moist south/ southwest wind flow into the state. Because this low sits further west than necessary/ desired, and is a bit moisture-starved due to its trajectory mostly over land, only light snow, at times, is expected for Aspen-Snowmass and I-70/ northern resorts, except for an increase on Sunday when this low moves through the area, though in a weakened state. The front range, and mainly southwest Colorado are more favored, with the heaviest daily snow totals expected across southwest Colorado under a prolonged favorable flow (favorable orographics).
SUNDAY - The low pressure system moves in and through Colorado, with a more eastward (and colder) push of the wind flow across the mountains, for better accumulations across Aspen and northern Colorado resorts, less for the southwest/ San Juan Mountains, and the Front Range. MONDAY - Low pressure moves eastward, with clearing skies and cold air in place. Please see the long range forecast for more. CM
Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) -
Next Tuesday through Friday (through Dec 4th) we could see frequent and fast shots of snow (1 day of sun and the next snow, then a sunny day, etc.). A few days of stronger high pressure ridging and warmer temperatures may follow this.
The El Nino SST pattern is strong, right now, and it looks like we will see a VERY strong El Nino continue this winter, possibly stronger than the 1997-1998 version, which is the strongest (in terms of SST anomaly) on record since 1950. This set-up would usually cause heavier rain and snow across California (mainly southern and central, including Tahoe, but especially including Mountain High and Big Bear, as the epic 1997-1998 season can attest to) and the southwest US this winter. This would be a vast improvement for Tahoe-Mammoth. Southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico usually do well, including Taos Ski Valley, who had a great season in 2014-2015 with the weak El Nino(ish) anomaly. Aspen is in between, and we would say average snowfall should be expected at Aspen-Snowmass in 2015-2016, which would make for a good year. We will be monitoring the progress of this right here, stay tuned... CM
Vail Ski Resort was founded in 1962 and since then the community and the ski area have matured into a destination resort for people around the globe. Evolving from a logging community prior to its discovery by the late 10th Mountain Division soldier and pioneer Pete Seibert and his friend, Earl Eaton, Vail now typifies a Tyrolean village with signature landmarks such as the Covered Bridge and the Clock Tower. Creative storefronts including restaurants, bars and boutiques line Bridge Street (framed by the Covered Bridge to the north) in Vail Village. The Town of Vail is home to numerous outdoor parks, water features, statues, artwork and more. As the largest single mountain ski resort in North America with 5,289 acres Vail offers distinctly different terrain and vistas spread 7 miles across the front side, the legendary Back Bowls and Blue Sky Basin. Magnificent backdrops, including the 14,000-foot Mount of the Holy Cross and the Gore, Sawatch mountain ranges surround the resort. Locals are known for their legendary tales and are open to sharing insider's tips on the best ways to ski and ride the mountain. The welcoming community takes everything in stride and is proud to share its amenities.