Sugarloaf Outdoor Center ↑39° ↓26° Forecast:   0" Base:   0"
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Today's Forecast
↑39° ↓26°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓25° / ↑23°
  • Humidity↓44% / ↑96%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth0"
Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy through the morning, and then mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear into the evening.
None expected throughout the day.
None expected today.
Winds NW 15 to 27 mph through the morning shifting to NW 16 to 28 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 34 mph. Wind chill expected to be 7 to 20 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Monday the 22nd
↑40° ↓22°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓21° / ↑18°
  • Humidity↓40% / ↑82%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth0"
Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy through the morning, and then partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy into the evening.
Expected snowfall to be a trace amount into the evening.
None expected throughout the day.
Winds NW 12 to 23 mph through the morning shifting to variable at 2 to 9 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 29 mph. Expected wind chill to be 5 to 28 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Tuesday the 23rd
↑46° ↓29°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓33° / ↑29°
  • Humidity↓78% / ↑97%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow1"
  • Regional Snow Depth0"
Partly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds through the morning, and then mostly cloudy becoming cloudy into the evening. Chance of rain in the evening.
Expected snowfall to be a dusting before noon and a dusting later into the evening.
Potential Precip: 0.18 to 0.88 inches
Winds SE 6 to 15 mph through the morning becoming NE 5 to 14 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 19 mph. Wind chill expected to be 17 to 34 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Wednesday the 24th
↑40° ↓28°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓32° / ↑31°
  • Humidity↓92% / ↑97%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow6"
  • Regional Snow Depth1"
Overcast through the morning, and then overcast becoming partly cloudy into the evening. Chance of rain after daylight and then rain in the afternoon, snow in the evening.
Snowfall forecasted to be 4 to 7 inches in the early morning, then another dusting before noon and a trace amount in the afternoon.
Potential Precip: 0.34 to 1.7 inches
Winds NW 12 to 23 mph through the morning shifting to NW 14 to 26 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 34 mph. Expected wind chill to be 12 to 32 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Thursday the 25th
↑33° ↓22°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓24° / ↑22°
  • Humidity↓84% / ↑94%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth1"
Partly cloudy through the morning, and then mostly cloudy becoming clear into the evening.
No snow throughout the day.
None expected.
Winds NW 16 to 28 mph through the morning becoming NW 11 to 22 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 36 mph. Expected wind chill to be 0 to 11 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Friday the 26th
↑37° ↓20°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓21° / ↑19°
  • Humidity↓77% / ↑90%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth1"
Clear through the morning, and then mostly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.
None expected.
None expected throughout the day.
Winds NW 9 to 20 mph through the morning becoming W 5 to 14 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 25 mph. Expected wind chill to be -3 to 19 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
  • Last Update04 May @ 02:05
  • Snow Past 24 hrs0"
  • Snow Past 48 hrs0"
  • Season Total12"
  • Average Base Depth( Estimate ) 0"
  • Today's Snow Potential0"
Comments
None Reported
  • High Lift Elevation
  • Base Elevation
  • Vertical Drop0ft
  • Longest TrailUnreported
  • Trails0 of 20
  • Lifts0 of 0
  • Acreage0 of 0 ( 0% )
Other Info
  • Additional ReportsNone Available
36°
Current Weather Icon
 
Conditions
  • Humidity46%
  • Dewpoint17°
  • SustainedNW 7mph
  • GustingNW 0mph
  • Visibility10.00 miles
  • Snow DepthUnreported
Comments
Fair
Location
Waterville, Waterville Robert LaFleur Airport, ME
  • Elevation400ft
  • UpdatedOct 21 @ 08:10
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Contact
Location
  • State: Maine
  • Country: United States
Central Rocky Mountains_Aspen - 2018-2019 Seasonal Long Range Outlook
Fri, August 31st, 2018 (begun this article)
Sunday September 23, 2018 (I finally finished it!)

MODOKI EL NINO = bad, REGULAR EL NINO = usually good, WEAK EL NINO to ENSO Neutral = can be good (due also to other factors)! There are many possibilities with the last one (the one we think is coming) but we will nail it down for you! 

Central and Western Colorado, Aspen-Snowmass to Durango
FALL and WINTER SEASON FORECAST FROM SNOWFORECAST.COM!

...WHAT IS THE FORECAST?...
OCTOBER - (Slightly above average snowfall and below average temperatures) Early season cold and October snows are expected for the ski resorts, with most snow and coldest temperatures being east of Vail Pass and the divide, but more than the average of 10" of snow that Aspen averages in town (more on the mountain), as storms drop in out of Canada for the most part, carrying the bulk of moisture and cold air to northern Colorado and to the east of the Vail Pass and the divide. There will be enough cold and snow to test out snowmaking equipment. The early snows will open the usual 10,000ft+ resorts early, and help to chill the soil for good base building as we move into November... We also expect the usual transition season cut-off and closed low pressure systems to move in from the west and deliver some surprises (snow then best for Aspen and southwest Colorado)... "Cut-off" means the low is cut off from and not being pushed around by, the storm steering flow (usually at 500mb).
NOVEMBER - (Near to above average snowfall, and below average temperatures) Near to above average early season snow overall across the region and no snow level issues, with cold systems out of Canada diving through and hitting all areas, as high pressure ridging offshore of the west coast allows storms to develop and move south from out of Canada, moving in with below average temperatures and some extreme record cold. We expect some early opening days on good bases. Snow is expected to be well preserved as colder than usual air helps to protect the snow...
DECEMBER - (Near to above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures through mid December, then dropping off to near average snowfall and near average temperatures in late December on some good bases). Some significant snowfall events through mid and maybe into late December, and near to below average temperatures should combine to be great for Christmas-New Year skiing/ boarding, then incoming storms start shifting to the south on a different storm track, with lighter snows for Aspen and good for southwest Colorado as we move into the holidays.
JANUARY ONWARD, MORE COMING SOON - ? Stay tuned, but a brief synopsis: Dry for most of January with above average temperatures as high pressure ridging builds in, and the east coast gets hammered with cold and snow. Storms return in February with near to above average snowfall and near average temperatures for Aspen-Snowmass, then March through the rest of the season looks near to warmer than average in temperature, with below average snows. April could produce some big storms and powder days to pass through the region, building the late season snowpack. More details are coming, and I will be naming resorts and forecasting long range snow totalsCM

...WHAT ARE THE FACTORS AND OPINIONS?...
Here are my August 31 observations: An El Nino that "wants" to happen, but meager warming to even some cooling in the key Nino regions (recent), and a mostly neutral status (currently) is not showing much hope for any El Nino pattern that may be classified as moderate or strong. In fact, I will say that we will not see a moderate or strong El Nino SST pattern this 2018-2019 season, and the NOAA forecasted weak El Nino is looking like a "maybe".
And, my September 15 observations: Latest guidance indicates that the El Nino SST anomaly will be weak, at best, in my opinion. Here is why: Cooler eastern Pacific waters (Nino 3.4 region)/ Subsurface waters heat content (180-100W Lat) has decreased/ and the current pattern is showing mostly a general cooling and not warming overall, though in the last 7 days, eastern Pacific surface waters off the coast of Ecuador (means "Equator") have warmed . Its mid September and this El Nino event should be a bit more evident. Its not. Even NOAA has backed off a bit with a 65% chance of El Nino formation, instead of the 70% they had called for early on in the summer when this anomaly looked more likely. For them to back off a bit like that indicates definite lost confidence, and this is not surprising, as I lost confidence in it occurring myself, back in July. Things work a bit slower in these large organizations, while us "loose cannons" (whatever in the hell that means) can blast off at will. Haha.

LONGRANGE_ENSO cpc _human reasoning_2
*An El Nino is still favored according to the above Climate Prediction Center chart*

LONGRANGE_SubsurfaceTempAnomalies

*We have seen some areas of cooling in the Nino 1+2 and 3 regions, as this El Nino struggles to form. This is indicating cooling in the subsurface waters, which is a factor that is looked at for potential SST's*

LONGRANGE_Last Year of Anomalies_best chart_Marked up

*As of Sep 12, there is some warming going on again in the referenced "Nino 3" region, so overall there is a positive SST anomaly, but mostly less than +.5 (in yellow on the above chart), which is the threshold that needs to be met for 3 consecutive months before an actual El Nino pattern is recognized. For now we are in an "ENSO neutral" status.

SOLAR MINIMUM: In terms of sunspot activity, there is currently almost none, or even "none", zero, zilch, nada, many days. Decreased or zero sunspot activity also affects our weather patterns. The chart below shows how we are in a solar "grand minimum" right now:

LONGRANGE_Sunspot Activity_Solar Minimum
We have seen some recent serious weather extremes this Summer of 2018, and have no reason to believe that we will not see similar extremes this fall and winter in North America:

From extreme heat in Europe, notably northern Europe:

LONGRANGE_Extremes_HeatInScandanavia


To extreme snow and cold in August:
LONGRANGE_Extremes_Salzburg
 NOAA: So to reiterate, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was forecasting a 60% likelihood for formation of an El Nino SST pattern this fall, and a 70% chance for the winter, 2018-2019, while now those forecasts are down to 50-55% and 65-70%, respectively. Large organizations like NOAA are not going to go backward on the forecast (decreased % chance), like this without very good reason, like, "its not happening like we thought it would guys"...

SNOWFORECAST.COM: At this point, a "weak" El Nino SST anomaly is the forecast from NOAA. I have believed since June that this would be a weak El Nino pattern that sets up, based on the afore-mentioned trend, but am now wondering if this El Nino will even show up at all. We think that the weak El Nino or no El Nino is going to turn out well for Aspen and southwest Colorado as it is combined with weak sunspot activity (solar minimum) for expected colder air (and stronger storms that reach the area) this winter overall. If an El Nino, weak, does form, it is looking more likely to be the Modoki version, which on average, sucks (dry) all across the western US. Thankfully, as a weak factor (there are other factors), a weak El Nino of any kind will have a "weaker" influence on the weather patterns we see this fall and winter, THANKFULLY. We are also looking (currently) at a weakly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more of a long term state of ocean water temps), which will not help in the El Nino department. Neutral to "very weak El Nino" is what we are forecasting as we move into fall and maybe through the winter, at best +.5 which is barely classified as an El Nino. As well, with the Grand Solar Minimum, expect the unexpected, and so far, that has proven true in many parts of the world. How will all of these factors; Weak El Nino, or even "ENSO Neutral" SST anomaly, neutral PDO, GSM (solar), and my own intuition, affect the southwest and western Colorado forecast? Just scroll back to the top to find out!

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

Some References:
COLD AND SNOW:  https://www.theweek.info/index.php?newsid=3760 (Salzburg, over 1 foot of snow in August!)

HEAT:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/17/scorching-scandinavia-record-breaking-heat-hits-norway-finland-and-sweden (90+ degrees in Norway, all time record high temps!)

Great resource for current SST’s and anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

International Research Institute: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Latest ENSO Discussion: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php

Space Weather ("Solar Minimum"): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

NCEP model forecast SST anomalies (1 model forecasting La Nina): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas2.html

The ONE outlier model forecasting La Nina: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_GEOS5v2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

Loads of the latest SST charts from ESRL, knock yourself out: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Best anomaly chart (in my opinion): https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.hov.gif

Detailed ENSO Discussion from NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

More info/ charts on Modoki El Nino: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

El Nino/ La Nina years/ ONI: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

A GREAT resource for "no BS" historical ski season info: http://bestsnow.net/

Latest PDO and history: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

 

Expanded Outlook

Sunday
↑39° / ↓26°
iconWinds: NW 15 to 27 mph, then NW 16 to 28 mph
iconForecast Snow: 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑36° / ↓28°
Sky
Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy before noon.
Snow
None expected.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected in the morning hours.
Winds
Morning winds NW 15 to 27 mph with gusts up to 34 mph. Expected wind chill to be 13 to 20 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑39° / ↓27°
Sky
Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear into the evening.
Snow
No snow through the afternoon and evening.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected through the afternoon and evening.
Winds
Afternoon winds NW 16 to 28 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Expected wind chill to be 7 to 18 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,509ft
temperature graph
Monday
↑40° / ↓22°
iconWinds: NW 12 to 23 mph, then variable 2 to 9 mph
iconForecast Snow: 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑32° / ↓22°
Sky
Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy before noon.
Snow
None expected.
Precipitation
None expected through the morning.
Winds
Morning winds NW 12 to 23 mph with gusts up to 29 mph. Expected wind chill to be 5 to 19 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑40° / ↓31°
Sky
Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
Snowfall expected to be a trace amount into the evening.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected through the afternoon and evening.
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at 2 to 9 mph. Wind chill expected to be 19 to 28 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,509ft
temperature graph
Tuesday
↑46° / ↓29°
iconWinds: SE 6 to 15 mph, then NE 5 to 14 mph
iconForecast Snow: 1"
icon

AM

icon
↑37° / ↓29°
Sky
Partly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds through the morning.
Snow
Snowfall forecasted to be a trace before noon.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: trace amount
Winds
Morning winds SE 6 to 15 mph with gusts up to 19 mph. Wind chill expected to be 17 to 31 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑45° / ↓36°
Sky
Mostly cloudy becoming overcast through the afternoon and evening. Chance of rain in the evening.
Snow
Snowfall expected to be a dusting into the evening.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.18 to 0.88 inches
Winds
Afternoon winds NE 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 18 mph. Wind chill expected to be 26 to 34 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,509ft
temperature graph
Wednesday
↑40° / ↓28°
iconWinds: NW 12 to 23 mph, then NW 14 to 26 mph
iconForecast Snow: 6"
icon

AM

icon
↑37° / ↓31°
Sky
Overcast before noon. Chance of rain after daylight.
Snow
Snowfall forecasted to be 4 to 7 inches in the early morning, then another trace before noon.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.33 to 1.65 inches
Winds
Morning winds NW 12 to 23 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Expected wind chill to be 19 to 32 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑38° / ↓28°
Sky
Overcast becoming partly cloudy into the evening. Chance of rain in the afternoon and then snow in the evening.
Snow
Snowfall expected to be a dusting in the afternoon.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.03 inches
Winds
Afternoon winds NW 14 to 26 mph with gusts up to 34 mph. Wind chill expected to be 12 to 21 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,509ft
temperature graph
Thursday
↑33° / ↓22°
iconWinds: NW 16 to 28 mph, then NW 11 to 22 mph
iconForecast Snow: 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑30° / ↓23°
Sky
Partly cloudy before noon.
Snow
No snow through the morning.
Precipitation
None expected through the morning.
Winds
Morning winds NW 16 to 28 mph with gusts up to 36 mph. Expected wind chill to be 4 to 11 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑33° / ↓23°
Sky
Mostly cloudy becoming clear through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
No snow.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected through the afternoon and evening.
Winds
Afternoon winds NW 11 to 22 mph. Expected wind chill to be 0 to 9 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,509ft
temperature graph
Friday
↑37° / ↓20°
iconWinds: NW 9 to 20 mph, then W 5 to 14 mph
iconForecast Snow: 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑30° / ↓20°
Sky
Clear before noon.
Snow
No snow in the morning hours.
Precipitation
None expected.
Winds
Morning winds NW 9 to 20 mph. Wind chill expected to be -3 to 18 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑37° / ↓29°
Sky
Mostly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
None expected through the afternoon and evening.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected through the afternoon and evening.
Winds
Afternoon winds W 5 to 14 mph. Wind chill expected to be 16 to 19 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 1,509ft
temperature graph

Snow Maker's Corner

Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature42°
  • Soil Low Temperature37°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature40°
  • Soil Low Temperature35°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature38°
  • Soil Low Temperature34°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature40°
  • Soil Low Temperature34°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature38°
  • Soil Low Temperature34°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart