YESTERDAY: "we expect a low pressure system to move into the western US and across mainly Nevada/ Utah, with some clouds and at best (for now) some snow flurries expected. So for now we expect mostly mild conditions and some clouds under a continued high pressure ridge. Winds are expected to increase from the south mainly"

TODAY we expect a low pressure system to move into the western US and across mainly Nevada/ Utah, with some clouds and at best (for now) some snow flurries expected. So for now we expect mostly mild conditions and some clouds under a continued high pressure ridge. Winds are expected to increase from the south mainly. 

Friday may be an in-between type of day, with a ridge of high pressure and approaching series of storms (and snow!!) on the way...

Next weekend (23-24 March) looks like it may be busy, with snow falling from a decent looking storm moving in from off the Pacific. These types of storms are usually undercutting the ridge, and usually sending most energy to the south. I will be watching, but it looks like we may see moderate snowfall for Bogus Basin and the rest of southern Idaho. CM

LONG RANGE: (on track) More snow moves in for the 23rd - 27th as a couple more storms track better to target the region. Snow is expected to be light to moderate, as these systems target areas further south, mostly a glancing blow for Bogus and southern Idaho. Frequently unsettled and "snowy" conditions should return the last days of March and into April. In fact, much of the spring may be a bit cooler and more snowy than usual, into May and even June. Our snowpack is looking great, and this should bode well for summer activities and the environment, our forests. Winter is not over yet! CM

WHERE TO BE IN THE WESTERN USA THIS WEEKEND!

Here is our early forecast for this weekend...

Hands-down, Tahoe – Mammoth will be the winner in terms of snow all through this weekend, with NO snow level issues, in fact dry and cold powder is what we mostly expect, especially on Sunday...

We are expecting two storms to move through, the first of which will be the weaker of the two, and will also be faster moving one, mainly a wave out ahead of the main storm to hit Saturday and Sunday.

It looks like the snow will begin flying again mainly Friday afternoon through overnight, with 6 to 10 inches of fresh snow forecast to be on the ground for the Saturday morning snow report, for favored resorts across Northern Tahoe like Sugar Bowl and Squaw-Alpine, and 3 to 6 inches of snow for other areas.

Friday, First storm, GFS Snow Accumulation by Saturday 4am based on a 1:10 water to snow ratio, whereas the water to snow ratio will be closer to 1:15 (more snow than shown on this map, is what is expected by the Saturday morning snow report)...



A stronger and larger scale, slower moving, and offshore positioning storm system starts dropping in from out of the north, located offshore, looking stronger/ colder, more dynamic, and dropping heavy snow Saturday and Sunday, basically ALL weekend long! We expect to see  10  to 18 inches of snow each day all across Tahoe-Mammoth, for a total of 2 (south Tahoe, Mammoth) to 3+ (north Tahoe) feet of extra snow expected this weekend! Saturday and Sunday!

Friday through Sunday, 2 storms, GFS Snow Accumulation by Sunday 4pm (close of business for most resorts on Sunday) based on a 1:10 water to snow ratio, whereas the water to snow ratio will be closer to 1:15 and even 1:20 (possibly MUCH more snow than shown on this map, is what is expected by the Sunday afternoon at 4pm! The snow will continue through Monday morning, so show up Monday if you like less crowds, DEEP and Fresh snow, and sunshine! Cold-smoke, No-joke powder! (on top of deep bases!)



Combined with the snow that has already fallen across Tahoe-Mammoth in recent weeks, conditions will be amazing this weekend! In fact, we are expecting no snow level issues whatsoever, and even a drier/ colder cold-smoke powder, especially on Sunday. If you are just looking for the best and deepest snow, Tahoe-Mammoth is going to be the place out west, this coming weekend! Resorts like Sugar Bowl will be favored with these storms, as they lie more westward than most, and will take up the bulk of available moisture and thus snowfall! Enjoy!!

(Check out the bulls-eye of heavy snow from Tahoe to southern Idaho)

Here is a video I put together explaining how moisture and dynamics are looking:




Meteorologist- CM

It has been a while since we updated this outlook. When paying full attention to any area we forecast for, which I have been watching weather patterns for (the western US also) since the 1970's, I put my forecasts of weather events/ timing/ snow totals up against any, especially in the long range. We gained quite a reputation for our Tahoe and Utah forecasts over a span of almost 15 years, gaining the attention of TV stations who used the forecasts with no mention of source, a movie financier who wanted me to be a part of a "think tank" group of professionals, radio stations, etc. Even major growers/ ag interests were using these free forecasts (for the longer range accuracy of weather event timing and significance), as an accurate long range forecaster is the equivalent of a "fortune teller", as told to me by the movie financier. There are competitors who charge for their info, and we do not, even though our information is a paid service in other formats we continue to deliver to agriculture customers to this day (Circa 1995). As I stated, I put my forecasts up against anyone else's in the area.

We gave out over $50,000 in SWAG (lodging, tickets, passes, gear, even Nativa Naturals food) from 2009-2011, stuff we couldn't even afford to buy ourselves, to many people from SFO and SAC, TVL area. If you check my bio you will see my story, there is a LOT more to it than what I am typing here.

I have received many emails due to the missing updates. The answer is, we have not had any support from advertisers, resorts, anyone in this region since around 2013. I continued on with the forecasting hoping for some support in the form of advertising or sponsorship, but it didn't happen, and I do not know anyone else who works for free.

That said, I would like to get these forecast outlooks going again-->

I never charged the site user for this service. The skier/ snowboarder has enough to pay for with fuel, lift tickets and passes, gear, life, etc., and I feel it is a service that should be provided by the host, the resort, to its visitors, even if in the form of advertising on the site. I have the same awesome, nice traffic as the rest of the snow sports niche sites, but am not going to run Google ads so they can charge $20/ cpm and give us less than a dollar cpm.

That said... I watch Colorado as that is where the business is for me. Recently, Bogus Basin joined the client list and now we work up a complete custom forecast for them as well, with a long range outlook. I will be drawing from that already completed work to deliver you a broad-brush longer range outlook for the western US, for now. I hope it is useful for you:

LONGER RANGE: The 9th-10th of January another low pressure system moves in with good potential snowfall, significant snow for the west coast mainly, less as we move inland, southern areas favored like southwest US areas,The 11-12th (roughly) and then the 13th-20th of January, we expect unsettled conditions to continue dominating the western US (had this forecast for over a month, early Dec forecast for this mid-late Jan time frame), and we expect a prominent moisture tap from the tropics, as El Nino starts to show itself more... So basically, between the 9th and 20th, we expect many more storms to move through with snow for most western US resort areas, down south to including Southern California and even favoring the southwest US as a more southerly track seems more likely... This unsettled period should last into around the 18th-20th of January, then in the last part of Jan and early February (through the 8th of Feb maybe), we start off with a snow down time under more dominant high pressure ridging. More to come. CM