White Pine Ski Area ↑34° ↓20° Forecast:   0" Base:   4"
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Elkhart Park G.S. close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 9,400ft
Temperature: 25°
Snow Depth: 6"
Snow Past 24 hrs: "
New Fork Lake close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 8,340ft
Temperature: 14°
Snow Depth: 5"
Snow Past 24 hrs: "
Kendall R.S. close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 7,740ft
Temperature: 13°
Snow Depth: 4"
Snow Past 24 hrs: "
Loomis Park close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 8,240ft
Temperature:
Snow Depth: 7"
Snow Past 24 hrs: "
Pocket Creek close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 9,360ft
Temperature: 18°
Snow Depth: 11"
Snow Past 24 hrs: "
East Rim Divide close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 7,930ft
Temperature: 19°
Snow Depth: 6"
Snow Past 24 hrs: "
Cold Springs close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 9,630ft
Temperature: 29°
Snow Depth: 7"
Snow Past 24 hrs: "
Gunsight Pass close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 9,820ft
Temperature: 17°
Snow Depth: 9"
Snow Past 24 hrs: "
St. Lawrence Alt close button
Network: SNTL
Elevation: 8,620ft
Temperature: 16°
Snow Depth: 6"
Snow Past 24 hrs: "
Today's Forecast
↑34° ↓20°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓13° / ↑9°
  • Humidity↓39% / ↑64%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth4"
Mostly clear with a few clouds before noon and then partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy later into the evening.
None expected today.
None expected today.
Winds NW 5 to 14 mph through the morning becoming W 5 to 14 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 18 mph. Expected wind chill to be 3 to 18 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Wednesday the 14th
↑38° ↓26°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓13° / ↑13°
  • Humidity↓37% / ↑54%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth3"
Partly cloudy throughout the day.
No snow.
No precipitation expected.
Winds NW 5 to 14 mph through the morning becoming SW 8 to 17 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 21 mph. Expected wind chill to be 14 to 23 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Thursday the 15th
↑35° ↓25°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓14° / ↑12°
  • Humidity↓39% / ↑66%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth2"
Mostly cloudy through the morning, and then partly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.
No snow throughout the day.
No precipitation expected throughout the day.
Winds W 6 to 15 mph through the morning becoming NW 8 to 19 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 27 mph. Expected wind chill to be 8 to 19 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Friday the 16th
↑33° ↓24°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓21° / ↑17°
  • Humidity↓62% / ↑87%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth2"
Partly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds through the morning, and then partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy into the evening. Chance of snow in the evening.
Expected snowfall to be a trace amount in the afternoon.
Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.05 inches
Winds W 6 to 15 mph through the morning shifting to W 8 to 19 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 43 mph. Expected wind chill to be 7 to 15 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Saturday the 17th
↑28° ↓16°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓18° / ↑11°
  • Humidity↓60% / ↑88%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth3"
Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy through the morning, and then partly cloudy becoming clear into the evening. Chance of snow after daylight and then snow in the afternoon.
Expected snowfall to be a dusting in the early morning.
Potential Precip: 0.05 to 0.25 inches
Winds SW 7 to 16 mph through the morning shifting to variable at 3 to 10 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 20 mph. Expected wind chill to be 2 to 8 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
Sunday the 18th
↑31° ↓19°
forecast icon
  • Dewpoint↓6° / ↑2°
  • Humidity↓33% / ↑49%
  • Regional Forecasted Snow0"
  • Regional Snow Depth3"
Clear through the morning, and then partly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds into the evening.
None expected throughout the day.
No precipitation expected today.
Winds NW 5 to 14 mph through the morning becoming variable at 3 to 10 mph in the afternoon, evening with gusts up to 18 mph. Wind chill expected to be 3 to 16 degrees throughout the day.
Daily Freezing Level In Feet
  • Last Update07 Nov @ 10:11
  • Snow Past 24 hrs0"
  • Snow Past 48 hrs0"
  • Season Total0"
  • Average Base Depth( Estimate ) 4"
  • Today's Snow Potential0"
Comments
None Reported
  • High Lift Elevation9350
  • Base Elevation8450
  • Vertical Drop1,100ft
  • Longest TrailUnreported
  • Trails0 of 27
  • Lifts0 of 2
  • Acreage0 of 370 ( 0% )
Other Info
  • Additional ReportsNone Available
16°
Current Weather Icon
 
Conditions
  • Humidity73%
  • Dewpoint
  • SustainedSE 7mph
  • GustingSE 0mph
  • Visibility10.00 miles
  • Snow Depth6"
Comments
Fair
Location
Pinedale, Ralph Wenz Field Airport, WY
  • Elevation8,904ft
  • UpdatedNov 13 @ 09:18
No Webcams Available
No Webcams Available
Contact
Location
  • City: Pinedale
  • State: Wyoming
  • Country: United States
Sun Valley - Big Sky - 2018-2019 Seasonal Long Range Outlook
Fri, August 31st, 2018 (begun this article)
Wednesday September 19, 2018 (I finally finished it!)

MODOKI EL NINO = bad, REGULAR EL NINO = not always bad, WEAK EL NINO to ENSO Neutral = could be good (due also to other factors)! There are many possibilities with the last one (the one we think is coming) but we will nail it down for you! 

Southern Idaho, Sun Valley to Montana and Wyoming
FALL and WINTER SEASON FORECAST FROM SNOWFORECAST.COM!

...WHAT IS THE FORECAST?...
OCTOBER - (Near average snowfall and below average temperatures) Early season cold and October snows for the ski resorts, though best snow and coldest temperatures will be to the east of the divide and Wyoming/ southwest Montana (Big Sky and Jackson Hole), a bit drier for southern Idaho (Bogus Basin and Sun Valley), as storms drop in out of Canada for the most part, carrying the bulk of moisture and cold air to the east of the divide. There will be enough cold to test out any snowmaking equipment, even across southern Idaho, as cold air and moisture still manages to deliver some snow to Bogus Basin and Sun Valley at times. Early snows will linger for days at the resort elevations to help cool the soil for some good base building when we move into November... We also expect the usual transition season cut-off and closed low pressure systems to move in from the west and deliver some surprises (snow)... "Cut-off" means the low is cut off from and not being pushed around by, the storm steering flow (usually at 500mb).
NOVEMBER - (Near to just below average snowfall, and near to below average temperatures) Near average early season snow overall across the region (Montana and Wyoming will likely still do best) and mostly no snow level issues, with cold systems out of Canada clipping southern Idaho and hitting areas mainly east of the divide full force, as high pressure ridging offshore of the west coast allows storms to develop and move south from out of Canada, moving in with below average temperatures and possibly some extreme record cold. We expect some late November opening days on good bases mainly for Yellowstone-Jackson Hole, and some near to a bit below average base depths for Sun Valley and Bogus Basin, but pretty well preserved as colder than usual air helps to protect the snow...
DECEMBER - (Near average snowfall and near to below average temperatures through mid December, then dropping off to below average snowfall and near average temperatures in late December on some fair to good bases). Some good snowfall events through mid and maybe into late December, and near to below average temperatures should combine to be great for Christmas-New Year skiing/ boarding, then incoming storms start shifting to the south on a different storm  track, with lighter snows across the region as we move into the holidays, though there could still be some good moisture and snowfall from out of the southwest for especially for Bogus Basin and to a lesser extent Sun Vally.
JANUARY ONWARD, MORE COMING SOON - ? Stay tuned, but a brief synopsis: Dry for most of January with above average temperatures as high pressure ridging builds in, and the east coast gets hammered with cold and snow. Storms return in February with near average snowfall and temperatures for Bogus Basin and Sun Valley (a heavy snow is possible from storms on a more southern track), less than average snow for Big Sky, then March through the rest of the season looks near to warmer than average in temperature, with below average snows. April could produce some big storms and powder days to pass through the region, building the late season snowpack. More details are coming, and I will be naming resorts and forecasting long range snow totalsCM

...WHAT ARE THE FACTORS AND OPINIONS?...
Here are my August 31 observations: An El Nino that "wants" to happen, but meager warming to even some cooling in the key Nino regions (recent), and a mostly neutral status (currently) is not showing much hope for any El Nino pattern that may be classified as moderate or strong. In fact, I will say that we will not see a moderate or strong El Nino SST pattern this 2018-2019 season, and the NOAA forecasted weak El Nino is looking like a "maybe".
And, my September 15 observations: Latest guidance indicates that the El Nino SST anomaly will be weak, at best, in my opinion. Here is why: Cooler eastern Pacific waters (Nino 3.4 region)/ Subsurface waters heat content (180-100W Lat) has decreased/ and the current pattern is showing mostly a general cooling and not warming overall, though in the last 7 days, eastern Pacific surface waters off the coast of Ecuador (means "Equator") have warmed . Its mid September and this El Nino event should be a bit more evident. Its not. Even NOAA has backed off a bit with a 65% chance of El Nino formation, instead of the 70% they had called for early on in the summer when this anomaly looked more likely. For them to back off a bit like that indicates definite lost confidence, and this is not surprising, as I lost confidence in it occurring myself, back in July. Things work a bit slower in these large organizations, while us "loose cannons" (whatever in the hell that means) can blast off at will. Haha.

LONGRANGE_ENSO cpc _human reasoning_2
*An El Nino is still favored according to the above Climate Prediction Center chart*

LONGRANGE_SubsurfaceTempAnomalies

*We have seen some areas of cooling in the Nino 1+2 and 3 regions, as this El Nino struggles to form. This is indicating cooling in the subsurface waters, which is a factor that is looked at for potential SST's*

LONGRANGE_Last Year of Anomalies_best chart_Marked up

*As of Sep 12, there is some warming going on again in the referenced "Nino 3" region, so overall there is a positive SST anomaly, but mostly less than +.5 (in yellow on the above chart), which is the threshold that needs to be met for 3 consecutive months before an actual El Nino pattern is recognized. For now we are in an "ENSO neutral" status.

SOLAR MINIMUM: In terms of sunspot activity, there is currently almost none, or even "none", zero, zilch, nada, many days. Decreased or zero sunspot activity also affects our weather patterns. The chart below shows how we are in a solar "grand minimum" right now:

LONGRANGE_Sunspot Activity_Solar Minimum

Side note, look at the last minimum, in 07-08-09', when  the Inland Northwest had the most snow EVER recorded, back to back years, one with 170+ inches of snow in Coeur d'Alene, ID.

Also, we have seen some recent serious weather extremes this Summer of 2018, and have no reason to believe that we will not see similar extremes this fall and winter in North America:

From extreme heat in Europe, notably northern Europe:

LONGRANGE_Extremes_HeatInScandanavia


To extreme snow and cold in August:
LONGRANGE_Extremes_Salzburg
 NOAA: So to reiterate, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was forecasting a 60% likelihood for formation of an El Nino SST pattern this fall, and a 70% chance for the winter, 2018-2019, while now those forecasts are down to 50-55% and 65-70%, respectively. Large organizations like NOAA are not going to go backward on the forecast (decreased % chance), like this without very good reason, like, "its not happening like we thought it would guys"...

SNOWFORECAST.COM: At this point, a "weak" El Nino SST anomaly is the forecast from NOAA. I have believed since June that this would be a weak El Nino pattern that sets up, based on the afore-mentioned trend, but am now wondering if this El Nino will even show up at all. For those who desire to see some at least average rain and snowfall this winter, a weak El Nino or no El Nino may be best. If an El Nino, weak, does form, it is looking more likely to be the Modoki version, which on average, sucks (dry) all across the western US. Thankfully, as a weak factor (there are other factors), a weak El Nino of any kind will have a "weaker" influence on the weather patterns we see this fall and winter, THANKFULLY. We are also looking (currently) at a weakly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more of a long term state of ocean water temps), which will not help in the El Nino department. Neutral to "very weak El Nino" is what we are forecasting as we move into fall and maybe through the winter, at best +.5 which is barely classified as an El Nino. As well, with the Grand Solar Minimum, expect the unexpected, and so far, that has proven true in many parts of the world. How will all of these factors; Weak El Nino, or even "ENSO Neutral" SST anomaly, neutral PDO, GSM (solar), and my own intuition, affect the Northwest US and Western Canada forecast? Just scroll back to the top to find out!

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

Some References:
COLD AND SNOW:  https://www.theweek.info/index.php?newsid=3760 (Salzburg, over 1 foot of snow in August!)

HEAT:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/17/scorching-scandinavia-record-breaking-heat-hits-norway-finland-and-sweden (90+ degrees in Norway, all time record high temps!)

Great resource for current SST’s and anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

International Research Institute: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Latest ENSO Discussion: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php

Space Weather ("Solar Minimum"): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

NCEP model forecast SST anomalies (1 model forecasting La Nina): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas2.html

The ONE outlier model forecasting La Nina: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_GEOS5v2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

Loads of the latest SST charts from ESRL, knock yourself out: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Best anomaly chart (in my opinion): https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.hov.gif

Detailed ENSO Discussion from NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

More info/ charts on Modoki El Nino: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

El Nino/ La Nina years/ ONI: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

A GREAT resource for "no BS" historical ski season info: http://bestsnow.net/

Latest PDO and history: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

 
October 31, 2018 - Western US Short and Long Range Weather Outlook
It's all in the video...

If you check our long range season outlook posted in September, we have it covered, snow happening as planned, and more to come as we expected, no surprises:



It's also helpful to stay updated via our forecasts for individual resorts, for the finer details.

Expanded Outlook

Tuesday
↑34° / ↓20°
iconWinds: NW 5 to 14 mph, then W 5 to 14 mph
iconForecast Snow: 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑32° / ↓20°
Sky
Mostly clear with a few clouds through the morning.
Snow
No snow through the morning.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected.
Winds
Morning winds NW 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 18 mph. Expected wind chill to be 3 to 15 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑28° / ↓26°
Sky
Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
None expected through the afternoon and evening.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected through the afternoon and evening.
Winds
Afternoon winds W 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 18 mph. Wind chill expected to be 15 to 18 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 9,019ft
temperature graph
Wednesday
↑38° / ↓26°
iconWinds: NW 5 to 14 mph, then SW 8 to 17 mph
iconForecast Snow: 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑38° / ↓30°
Sky
Partly cloudy through the morning.
Snow
No snow through the morning.
Precipitation
No precipitation expected through the morning.
Winds
Morning winds NW 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 18 mph. Expected wind chill to be 17 to 23 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑30° / ↓26°
Sky
Partly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
None expected.
Precipitation
None expected through the afternoon and evening.
Winds
Afternoon winds SW 8 to 17 mph with gusts up to 21 mph. Wind chill expected to be 14 to 23 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 9,019ft
temperature graph
Thursday
↑35° / ↓25°
iconWinds: W 6 to 15 mph, then NW 8 to 19 mph
iconForecast Snow: 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑34° / ↓27°
Sky
Mostly cloudy through the morning.
Snow
None expected.
Precipitation
None expected through the morning.
Winds
Morning winds W 6 to 15 mph with gusts up to 17 mph. Expected wind chill to be 14 to 19 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑28° / ↓25°
Sky
Partly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.
Snow
No snow.
Precipitation
None expected through the afternoon and evening.
Winds
Afternoon winds NW 8 to 19 mph with gusts up to 43 mph. Wind chill expected to be 8 to 19 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 9,019ft
temperature graph
Friday
↑33° / ↓24°
iconWinds: W 6 to 15 mph, then W 8 to 19 mph
iconForecast Snow: 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑31° / ↓29°
Sky
Partly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds before noon.
Snow
None expected through the morning.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: trace amount
Winds
Morning winds W 6 to 15 mph with gusts up to 23 mph. Wind chill expected to be 7 to 13 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑27° / ↓25°
Sky
Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy through the afternoon and evening. Chance of snow in the evening.
Snow
Expected snowfall to be a trace in the afternoon.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.03 inches
Winds
Afternoon winds W 8 to 19 mph with gusts up to 43 mph. Wind chill expected to be 7 to 15 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 9,019ft
temperature graph
Saturday
↑28° / ↓16°
iconWinds: SW 7 to 16 mph, then variable 3 to 10 mph
iconForecast Snow: 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑28° / ↓26°
Sky
Overcast becoming mostly cloudy through the morning. Chance of snow after daylight.
Snow
Snowfall expected to be a trace in the early morning.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.05 inches
Winds
Morning winds SW 7 to 16 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Expected wind chill to be 6 to 8 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑21° / ↓16°
Sky
Partly cloudy becoming clear into the evening. Chance of snow in the afternoon.
Snow
Flurries possible.
Precipitation
Potential Precip: trace amount
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at 3 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be 2 to 6 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 9,019ft
temperature graph
Sunday
↑31° / ↓19°
iconWinds: NW 5 to 14 mph, then variable 3 to 10 mph
iconForecast Snow: 0"
icon

AM

icon
↑30° / ↓25°
Sky
Clear through the morning.
Snow
No snow through the morning.
Precipitation
None expected in the morning hours.
Winds
Morning winds NW 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 18 mph. Wind chill expected to be 3 to 16 degrees through the morning.

PM

icon
↑25° / ↓24°
Sky
Partly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds into the evening.
Snow
None expected.
Precipitation
None expected through the afternoon and evening.
Winds
Afternoon winds variable at 3 to 10 mph. Expected wind chill to be 13 to 16 degrees into the evening.
Hourly Temperatures at 9,019ft
temperature graph

Snow Maker's Corner

Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature22°
  • Soil Low Temperature15°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature26°
  • Soil Low Temperature21°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature26°
  • Soil Low Temperature21°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature26°
  • Soil Low Temperature20°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart
Regional Soil Temperatures
  • Soil High Temperature27°
  • Soil Low Temperature22°
Base Wet Bulb Temperatures (F)
chart