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US Extended Snowfall Outlook
Updated September 18, 2017

UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WEST --> This week we expect a few Gulf of Alaska storms to move through the western US, and drops snow to some mountain areas across Washington, Oregon (Cascades), Idaho, Montana, Wyoming (northern Rocky Mountains), California, Nevada (Tahoe), and Utah (Wasatch). By Saturday we may see some snow for Colorado also, as the trough weakens, warms up some, and shifts east. Luckily, the mountains and resorts in Colorado are so elevated, that despite the warming, snow is still possible. More details are coming. The East Coast (+ the resorts) will be sitting under a high pressure ridge, with warmer than average weather. CM

ThisWeek_18sep

BY and AFTER THIS WEEKEND...
High pressure ridging will start to dominate the western US, for quite a late summer season warm-up. This should affect all areas, though Colorado will be dealing with some unsettled weather to start (Sat and Sun). This ridge over the west should last through 7 to 10 days, turning unsettled again (storms) after the first few days of October, but more so by the 10th or so as low pressure deepens across the west (colder, snow more likely for many areas). CM

Next Week CM

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Tahoe - Mammoth
Snow is falling from base to top at Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows, with some heavy bursts of snow due to the "convective" nature of the air mass moving in and across the region...

First, here is High Camp at Squaw as of 3:45pm, Sep 21, 2017
HighCamp_21Sep2017

Here is the latest (as of 3:45pm) satellite and radar loop (please allow time to load)...
CODNEXLAB-1km-N_California-ir-ani12-201709212245-100-100-1620

You can see the cold air and moisture to the northwest of the Tahoe area, and these showers are continuing to develop and move in. Our 3 to 5" of snow forecast for High Camp Squaw Valley was probably a low forecast snowfall estimate, as we stated yesterday, and we expect they will see 8 to 10 inches of snow by tonight at Squaw Valley High Camp 8,200 feet. Please see the latest water vapor shot below...

Tahoe_WV_21sep2017
Please stay up to date with our custom forecast for Squaw, and check the long-range outlook, which is our own unique product: http://snowforecast.com/usa-forecasts/southwest-usa/california/squaw-valley-usa/

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Sep 20, 2017 --> If snowfall and snow accumulation is an accepted milestone, Summer is officially over for Tahoe, tomorrow!

Say goodbye to this Squaw Valley High Camp view...
download
...and "hello", to a view more like this...



A cold low pressure system that moved out of the Gulf of Alaska is expected to hit Tahoe with some snowflakes, probably a trace to 1" of snow in town and around the lake Thursday morning, and...

2 to 4" of snow for higher elevations above 7,000 feet, and we are predicting 3 to 5" of snow for Squaw Valley High Camp (8,200 feet), and at the top of Alpine Meadows! 2 to 4" of new snow is very likely for the rest of the mountain!

Dew points at 5,000 feet will be in the 30-33F range between 9am and 6pm on Thursday, when we expect most of this snow to fall.

Temperatures will remain mostly between 34 and 42 on the mountain, with most of the snowfall expected between 9am and 6pm, becoming cold with isolated snow showers in the evening and overnight. By Thursday night and Friday morning, temperatures drop into the 15Fto 23F range on the mountain, with a layer of fresh snow!

Below, see the culprits for this snowfall...

Area of instability on IR Satellite imagery... moving in:

Sat
Strong Jet Stream (110+ knots) Dynamics, and southwest orientation (perfect for Tahoe), on the way tonight/ tomorrow:

30kFt

500 millibar (commonly known as the "steering flow" for mid-latitude storms) "vort max" is moving in and across the region, which aids, at times, in heavier precipitation than forecast by the computer models:

18kFt

700 millibar (more mid-level atmosphere guidance) forecasts show good upward vertical velocity overhead for the region, with sufficient moisture for precipitation and the snowfall we are forecasting:

10kFt
Friday looks cold and drier with north winds, plus we cannot rule out a few snow flurries on the mountain as some weak disturbances may still be embedded in the wind flow overhead. Otherwise, a warm up is expected into the weekend and next week:

Extended
We expect this to be the forecast, mostly sunny and mild, into early October, with a change back to unsettled around the 5th of October, and more deep and cold low pressure forming across the west around the 10th or so of October. CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2017. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.
SnowMap Legend
CUSTOM FORECAST DETAILS
Weather Icon

↑47° / 8c°

↓27° / -3c°

Mountain Graphic

Sky Condition

Partly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix

Snow Potential

None Expected

Precipitation

Scattered Wintry Mix (Potential precip: 0.18in, 4.52mm)

Wind

From the NE at 1 to 6 MPH.

Weather Icon

↑53° / 12c°

↓31° / -1c°

Mountain Graphic

Sky Condition

Mostly sunny

Snow Potential

None Expected

Precipitation

None Expected

Wind

From the ENE at 5 to 7 MPH.

Weather Icon

↑58° / 14c°

↓38° / 3c°

Mountain Graphic

Sky Condition

Mostly sunny

Snow Potential

None Expected

Precipitation

None Expected

Wind

From the E at 5 to 12 MPH.

Weather Icon

↑60° / 16c°

↓41° / 5c°

Mountain Graphic

Sky Condition

Mostly sunny

Snow Potential

None Expected

Precipitation

None Expected

Wind

From the ENE at 10 to 13 MPH.

Weather Icon

↑65° / 18c°

↓43° / 6c°

Mountain Graphic

Sky Condition

Sunny

Snow Potential

None Expected

Precipitation

None Expected

Wind

From the E at 5 to 9 MPH.

Weather Icon

↑67° / 19c°

↓44° / 7c°

Mountain Graphic

Sky Condition

Mostly sunny

Snow Potential

None Expected

Precipitation

None Expected

Wind

From the E at 3 to 7 MPH.

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