Arapahoe Basin Discussion

Updated Tuesday September 18, 2018

Today we expect the continued southerly flow out ahead of the trough across the northwest, to draw increased moisture in from the south, with very isolated thunderstorms expected in the area. Thunderstorm potential is winding down overall, due to shorter days and less heating potential from the sun as we move toward October. 

On Wednesday we expect some moisture to be dragged up form the south out ahead of a low pressure system moving in across Colorado, for some scattered thunderstorms and showers, some heavy and soaking. Temperatures will be cooler.

Thursday through Saturday we expect mostly dry and warm conditions under mostly sunny skies, with breezy to windy conditions as low pressure moves across Montana/ Wyoming, causing a stronger pressure gradient. Around the 25th we may see a greater increase of moisture and instability, aided by a dissipating Hurricane off Baja California, which has its remnants carried across Colorado. This may last a few+ days, for isolated to scattered thunderstorms and possibly some good soaking shower in favored areas. CM

US Extended Snowfall Outlook - Updated May 13, 2018

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK from snowforecast.com - May 13, 2018

Updated Sunday May 13, 2018-

Low pressure will continue frequently affecting the west coast right into June, with late season upper-mountain snowfalls expected at times for Aspen and western Colorado. Do You want to see OTHER AREAS mentioned, email me and let me know... CM

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

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Mountain Summit Forecast

Tuesday

↑57° / ↓36°

Winds: W 10 to 21 mph, then SW 11 to 22 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑54° / ↓36°

Sky

Clear before noon.

Snow

No snow through the morning.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Morning winds near the top W 10 to 21 mph with gusts up to 26 mph. Wind chill expected to be 19 to 25 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑56° / ↓39°

Sky

Overcast becoming partly cloudy into the evening.

Snow

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top SW 11 to 22 mph with gusts up to 28 mph. Wind chill expected to be 25 to 29 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 14,207ft

Wednesday

↑54° / ↓35°

Winds: SW 7 to 16 mph, then W 14 to 26 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑54° / ↓36°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming mostly cloudy through the morning.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.05 inches

Winds

Morning winds near the top SW 7 to 16 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Expected wind chill to be 22 to 26 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑52° / ↓35°

Sky

Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

No snow through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top W 14 to 26 mph with gusts up to 33 mph. Wind chill expected to be 15 to 26 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 14,207ft

Thursday

↑51° / ↓31°

Winds: W 11 to 22 mph, then SW 11 to 22 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑47° / ↓32°

Sky

Cloudy through the morning.

Snow

None expected in the morning hours.

Precipitation

None expected in the morning hours.

Winds

Morning winds near the top W 11 to 22 mph with gusts up to 26 mph. Expected wind chill to be 12 to 16 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑50° / ↓33°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear into the evening.

Snow

No snow through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected through the afternoon and evening.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top SW 11 to 22 mph with gusts up to 28 mph. Expected wind chill to be 13 to 29 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 14,207ft

Friday

↑49° / ↓32°

Winds: SW 4 to 13 mph, then SW 6 to 15 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑47° / ↓32°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear through the morning.

Snow

None expected through the morning.

Precipitation

None expected through the morning.

Winds

Morning winds near the top SW 4 to 13 mph with gusts up to 14 mph. Wind chill expected to be 16 to 20 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑47° / ↓33°

Sky

Mostly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds into the evening.

Snow

No snow.

Precipitation

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top SW 6 to 15 mph. Wind chill expected to be 16 to 24 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 14,207ft

Saturday

↑49° / ↓32°

Winds: W 6 to 15 mph, then S 7 to 16 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑46° / ↓32°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear before noon.

Snow

Snowfall forecasted to be a trace amount in the early morning.

Precipitation

None expected through the morning.

Winds

Morning winds near the top W 6 to 15 mph. Expected wind chill to be 15 to 17 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑47° / ↓35°

Sky

Mostly cloudy becoming clear through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

No snow.

Precipitation

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top S 7 to 16 mph. Wind chill expected to be 15 to 20 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 14,207ft

Sunday

↑51° / ↓33°

Winds: W 8 to 17 mph, then W 7 to 16 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑48° / ↓33°

Sky

Clear before noon.

Snow

None expected through the morning.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Morning winds near the top W 8 to 17 mph. Expected wind chill to be 15 to 19 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑49° / ↓41°

Sky

Clear through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top W 7 to 16 mph. Expected wind chill to be 16 to 24 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 14,207ft

Mountain Base Forecast

Tuesday

↑67° / ↓42°

Winds: W 9 to 20 mph, then SW 6 to 15 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑64° / ↓42°

Sky

Clear through the morning.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Morning winds around the base W 9 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Wind chill expected to be 39 to 51 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑67° / ↓46°

Sky

Cloudy becoming partly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base SW 6 to 15 mph with gusts up to 19 mph. Expected wind chill to be 43 to 56 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 10,497ft

Wednesday

↑64° / ↓41°

Winds: W 8 to 19 mph, then W 12 to 24 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑63° / ↓42°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming mostly cloudy before noon.

Snow

No snow through the morning.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: 0.02 to 0.08 inches

Winds

Morning winds around the base W 8 to 19 mph with gusts up to 24 mph. Wind chill expected to be 38 to 50 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑63° / ↓42°

Sky

Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base W 12 to 24 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Expected wind chill to be 33 to 50 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 10,497ft

Thursday

↑62° / ↓37°

Winds: W 8 to 17 mph, then S 6 to 15 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑56° / ↓37°

Sky

Cloudy through the morning.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected through the morning.

Winds

Morning winds around the base W 8 to 17 mph with gusts up to 21 mph. Expected wind chill to be 26 to 42 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑60° / ↓40°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear into the evening.

Snow

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base S 6 to 15 mph with gusts up to 19 mph. Wind chill expected to be 33 to 51 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 10,497ft

Friday

↑60° / ↓37°

Winds: variable 3 to 10 mph, then SW 6 to 15 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑57° / ↓37°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear before noon.

Snow

None expected through the morning.

Precipitation

None expected through the morning.

Winds

Morning winds around the base variable at 3 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be 32 to 52 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑58° / ↓40°

Sky

Mostly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

No snow through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected through the afternoon and evening.

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base SW 6 to 15 mph. Expected wind chill to be 35 to 54 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 10,497ft

Saturday

↑60° / ↓38°

Winds: W 6 to 15 mph, then SW 7 to 16 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑58° / ↓38°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear before noon.

Snow

Snowfall expected to be a trace in the early morning.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected in the morning hours.

Winds

Morning winds around the base W 6 to 15 mph. Wind chill expected to be 33 to 46 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑58° / ↓41°

Sky

Mostly cloudy becoming clear through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base SW 7 to 16 mph. Wind chill expected to be 36 to 50 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 10,497ft

Sunday

↑61° / ↓39°

Winds: W 8 to 17 mph, then SW 7 to 16 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑58° / ↓39°

Sky

Clear before noon.

Snow

No snow in the morning hours.

Precipitation

None expected in the morning hours.

Winds

Morning winds around the base W 8 to 17 mph. Wind chill expected to be 32 to 44 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑59° / ↓47°

Sky

Clear through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

No snow through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base SW 7 to 16 mph. Wind chill expected to be 34 to 48 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 10,497ft

Climatology

Mountain Top Climatology

	High Temperatures					Low Temperatures					Precipitation			Snowfall			Snow Depth
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year
1	57	68	1975	50	1973	34	44	1974	26	1976	0.105	0.55	1963	0.02	0.5	1981	0.0	T	1981
2	57	67	1975	41	1972	34	43	1975	27	1973	0.094	0.79	1966	0.16	3.5	1974	0.2	3	1974
3	57	64	1983	40	1973	35	43	1983	23	1973	0.055	0.61	1968	0.25	5.0	1968	0.2	5	1968
4	57	64	1975	41	1968	35	44	1982	24	1968	0.080	0.65	1968	0.45	5.5	1968	0.5	6	1968
5	57	66	1979	34	1971	35	42	1978	24	1968	0.038	0.35	1971	0.09	2.0	1971	0.1	2	1971
6	58	70	1978	44	1982	36	42	1984	26	1968	0.050	0.64	1982	T	T	1974	0.0	T	1974
7	60	73	1978	44	1972	36	41	1977	28	1968	0.070	0.93	1963	T	T	1972	0.0	T	1972
8	57	68	1978	38	1984	36	45	1977	24	1984	0.055	0.43	1971	0.18	3.0	1984	0.0	1	1971
9	56	64	1979	47	1982	35	42	1979	25	1984	0.045	0.36	1980	0.00	0.0	1984	0.0	0	1983
10	57	66	1979	42	1980	36	44	1974	30	1976	0.087	0.76	1975	0.00	0.0	1984	0.0	0	1983
11	57	64	1971	48	1969	35	44	1974	30	1980	0.064	0.42	1980	T	T	1969	0.0	T	1965
12	53	63	1971	40	1978	33	38	1970	24	1978	0.141	0.98	1967	0.34	5.0	1974	0.3	5	1974
13	53	64	1971	36	1974	30	39	1971	17	1967	0.077	0.51	1970	0.13	2.0	1982	0.1	1	1982
14	52	63	1971	37	1982	31	38	1973	17	1967	0.047	0.40	1976	0.09	2.0	1982	0.1	3	1982
15	52	62	1973	36	1982	30	38	1973	24	1967	0.077	0.41	1966	0.16	2.5	1974	0.2	2	1974
16	51	60	1979	32	1974	29	34	1979	18	1968	0.098	0.59	1968	0.30	5.0	1968	0.3	5	1968
17	50	63	1979	32	1968	29	39	1983	13	1965	0.093	0.50	1971	0.55	7.0	1971	0.6	6	1971
18	51	62	1963	19	1971	30	39	1983	8	1971	0.032	0.23	1969	0.11	2.0	1971	0.5	7	1971
19	53	65	1963	24	1971	30	46	1980	4	1971	0.047	0.38	1967	0.33	3.5	1967	0.6	6	1971
20	50	62	1980	29	1978	28	39	1970	10	1971	0.116	0.43	1965	0.54	4.0	1978	0.8	5	1971
21	48	60	1977	29	1978	26	35	1966	10	1978	0.057	0.52	1963	0.27	4.0	1965	0.4	4	1965
22	49	60	1967	28	1965	27	37	1981	14	1965	0.102	1.45	1970	0.98	16.5	1970	1.2	16	1970
23	50	63	1966	35	1965	28	38	1966	16	1971	0.054	0.64	1977	0.25	4.0	1977	0.9	11	1970
24	51	62	1966	35	1977	29	38	1966	17	1977	0.020	0.14	1977	0.16	2.0	1973	0.4	4	1970
25	50	58	1967	35	1973	27	34	1979	14	1984	0.086	1.06	1970	1.05	18.0	1970	1.0	18	1970
26	50	61	1963	30	1970	29	37	1982	8	1970	0.050	0.30	1976	0.32	3.0	1976	0.9	12	1970
27	50	65	1963	26	1973	28	35	1983	12	1973	0.055	0.36	1976	0.23	3.0	1976	0.7	7	1970
28	51	64	1963	37	1976	27	38	1981	14	1976	0.033	0.28	1974	0.48	3.0	1984	0.6	4	1970
29	49	59	1981	28	1973	27	39	1981	6	1984	0.091	0.69	1965	0.76	7.0	1965	0.9	7	1965
30	50	61	1969	29	1965	28	38	1977	10	1984	0.037	0.55	1965	0.27	6.0	1965	0.6	9	1965
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year

Mountain Base Climatology

	High Temperatures					Low Temperatures					Precipitation			Snowfall			Snow Depth
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year
1	61	71	1995	46	1992	35	45	1954	26	1956	0.040	0.60	1972	0.00	0.1	2001	0.0	0	2015
2	61	79	1981	45	1972	35	46	1990	25	1973	0.039	0.77	1994	T	T	1973	0.0	T	1965
3	60	78	1981	31	1961	35	46	1983	21	1961	0.047	1.33	1961	0.29	18.5	1961	0.3	16	1961
4	61	78	2014	29	1961	35	43	1982	20	2008	0.047	0.41	1961	0.19	8.3	1961	0.2	14	1961
5	61	72	1995	45	1961	35	44	2013	21	1968	0.039	0.69	2014	0.06	3.1	1961	0.1	8	1961
6	61	74	1998	41	2004	35	43	2013	26	2003	0.041	0.55	2003	T	T	1970	0.0	3	1961
7	60	74	1978	44	1972	35	40	2013	20	2001	0.075	0.53	2011	0.07	4.0	1894	0.0	1	2001
8	59	72	1979	38	2003	34	43	1977	20	1993	0.058	0.48	1986	0.11	6.5	2001	0.1	9	2001
9	58	71	1981	34	2001	34	43	1974	16	2001	0.063	0.56	1980	T	T	1966	0.0	T	1995
10	59	68	2012	41	2003	34	42	1998	22	1962	0.049	0.59	2013	0.02	1.2	1986	0.0	T	1995
11	58	67	1992	40	2003	34	44	2012	21	1957	0.037	0.45	1981	0.02	1.0	2003	0.0	1	2003
12	57	67	1895	38	2003	33	42	1895	21	2011	0.106	0.88	1949	0.18	4.5	1950	0.1	2	2008
13	56	70	1981	40	2008	32	45	1980	19	1967	0.075	0.82	2013	0.19	6.0	1952	0.1	4	1993
14	55	71	1990	38	1989	31	41	1955	10	1993	0.041	0.45	1895	0.09	3.8	1993	0.1	5	1993
15	55	70	1990	36	1982	30	43	1955	12	1993	0.056	0.58	2009	0.10	2.0	1991	0.0	2	1991
16	55	70	1981	41	1999	31	41	1895	10	1994	0.065	0.56	1998	0.06	4.2	1968	0.0	T	1974
17	56	68	1981	31	1968	31	42	2000	14	2006	0.056	0.58	2007	0.21	5.5	1968	0.0	1	1974
18	56	82	1981	25	1971	31	40	1895	6	1971	0.043	0.61	2002	0.12	7.0	2002	0.1	7	2002
19	55	70	2010	34	1971	30	40	2010	8	1971	0.043	0.44	1996	0.18	4.8	1996	0.2	6	1996
20	54	75	2010	34	1978	29	41	2014	10	1978	0.066	0.53	1972	0.24	4.9	1961	0.1	4	1996
21	53	66	2014	26	1965	28	38	2014	8	1895	0.072	0.60	1895	0.44	9.5	2006	0.3	10	2006
22	53	72	1980	30	2009	28	41	1953	10	1995	0.086	1.00	1970	0.45	8.9	1970	0.5	14	2006
23	53	68	1992	30	2009	28	38	2014	8	1985	0.061	0.82	2013	0.42	7.8	1985	0.6	16	2006
24	53	67	1978	30	2006	28	37	1992	9	1985	0.051	0.80	1961	0.29	12.5	1961	0.5	12	1961
25	53	69	2015	30	2000	27	37	2014	10	1961	0.042	0.60	1954	0.28	8.1	1970	0.3	8	1961
26	54	68	2014	33	1959	28	39	2015	11	1970	0.052	0.57	1973	0.42	10.0	1959	0.6	8	1959
27	54	68	2010	27	1996	29	38	2014	8	1996	0.031	0.51	1959	0.21	6.0	1959	0.3	10	1959
28	54	69	2001	31	1999	28	40	2015	11	1999	0.037	0.42	1954	0.31	4.0	1985	0.3	8	1959
29	54	68	2010	33	1959	28	38	2015	10	1973	0.054	0.88	1959	0.40	12.0	1959	0.6	20	1959
30	52	70	2010	30	1985	28	40	2015	8	1961	0.046	0.50	1894	0.29	3.0	1894	0.7	17	1959
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year