Aspen Highlands Discussion

Wednesday Nov 14, 2018

Today - High pressure ridging develops, with less wind and some inversion layers setting up, making town colder than the nearby mountain (Aspen proper colder than on the slopes). This happens when we sit under a ridge of high pressure, as colder and more dense air sinks and warmer air rises above it. Many times these layers of warm and colder air become harder to dissipate as they hold for days on end. This time that does not look to be the case.

Thursday through Saturday - After a possible light shot of snow as a "moisture-challenged" low pressure system sweeps in from out of the northwest, we expect high pressure ridging over Colorado to hold into next weekend, for warmer and drier weather in Aspen and western Colorado. 

LONGER RANGE FORECAST (mainly after Nov 15th): Low pressure starts moving in from off the Pacific, with some possible subtropical moisture mixing in at times, and some closed lows that may be taking better aim on Tahoe-Mammoth and Big Bear finally, then moving in for Colorado, likely to affect southern and western Colorado more favorably this period (incl. Aspen-Snowmass) as south and west-facing slopes take the cross-mountain orographics, less favorable for northern and Northwest slopes east and north of Vail Pass... Just in time for Thanksgiving Holiday, snow potential is looking up again. We will be watching. CM

October 31, 2018 - Western US Short and Long Range Weather Outlook

It's all in the video...

If you check our long range season outlook posted in September, we have it covered, snow happening as planned, and more to come as we expected, no surprises:




It's also helpful to stay updated via our forecasts for individual resorts, for the finer details.

Mountain Summit Forecast

Wednesday

↑33° / ↓16°

Winds: NW 4 to 13 mph, then W 8 to 17 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑33° / ↓16°

Sky

Partly cloudy before noon.

Snow

None expected in the morning hours.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected.

Winds

Morning winds near the top NW 4 to 13 mph with gusts up to 16 mph. Wind chill expected to be 4 to 14 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑26° / ↓20°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top W 8 to 17 mph with gusts up to 21 mph. Wind chill expected to be 7 to 14 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 11,678ft

Thursday

↑37° / ↓20°

Winds: NW 5 to 14 mph, then SW 5 to 14 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑36° / ↓21°

Sky

Partly cloudy becoming clear through the morning.

Snow

None expected through the morning.

Precipitation

None expected in the morning hours.

Winds

Morning winds near the top NW 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 18 mph. Expected wind chill to be 7 to 12 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑27° / ↓20°

Sky

Partly cloudy into the evening.

Snow

No snow.

Precipitation

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top SW 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 18 mph. Wind chill expected to be 12 to 15 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 11,678ft

Friday

↑36° / ↓19°

Winds: W 7 to 16 mph, then SW 4 to 13 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑35° / ↓21°

Sky

Partly cloudy before noon.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Morning winds near the top W 7 to 16 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Expected wind chill to be 8 to 12 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑27° / ↓19°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top SW 4 to 13 mph with gusts up to 24 mph. Expected wind chill to be 8 to 12 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 11,678ft

Saturday

↑38° / ↓28°

Winds: W 6 to 15 mph, then W 4 to 13 mph

Forecast Snow: 1"

AM

↑41° / ↓27°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds before noon.

Snow

Isolated in the morning.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Morning winds around the base W 6 to 15 mph with gusts up to 17 mph.

PM

↑34° / ↓23°

Sky

Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy through the afternoon and evening. Chance of rain in the evening.

Snow

1 to 2 inches of snowfall.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.05 inches

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base W 4 to 13 mph with gusts up to 16 mph.

Hourly Temperatures at 11,678ft

Sunday

↑30° / ↓14°

Winds: NW 4 to 13 mph, then variable 2 to 10 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑28° / ↓19°

Sky

Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy through the morning. Chance of snow after daylight.

Snow

Flurries possible in the morning hours.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Morning winds near the top NW 4 to 13 mph with gusts up to 16 mph. Expected wind chill to be -3 to 7 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑23° / ↓16°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top variable at 2 to 10 mph. Expected wind chill to be 7 to 11 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 11,678ft

Monday

↑32° / ↓17°

Winds: variable 2 to 9 mph, then variable 3 to 10 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑32° / ↓22°

Sky

Clear before noon.

Snow

None expected in the morning hours.

Precipitation

None expected in the morning hours.

Winds

Morning winds near the top variable at 2 to 9 mph. Expected wind chill to be 6 to 13 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑25° / ↓18°

Sky

Clear through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top variable at 3 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be 13 to 14 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 11,678ft

Mountain Base Forecast

Wednesday

↑44° / ↓11°

Winds: NW 4 to 13 mph, then variable 3 to 10 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑36° / ↓11°

Sky

Partly cloudy and cold through the morning (with an inversion layer).

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

None expected in the morning hours.

Winds

Morning winds NW 4 to 13 mph with gusts up to 17 mph.

PM

↑44° / ↓28°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear into the evening, with milder temperatures.

Snow

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds variable at 3 to 10 mph.

Hourly Temperatures at 8,040ft

Thursday

↑46° / ↓10°

Winds: NW 4 to 13 mph, then W 5 to 14 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑37° / ↓10°

Sky

Partly cloudy and milder with increased breezes.

Snow

None expected

Precipitation

None expected

Winds

Morning winds NW 4 to 13 mph with gusts up to 16 mph.

PM

↑36° / ↓23°

Sky

Partly cloudy and milder with increased breezes.

Snow

None expected

Precipitation

None expected

Winds

Afternoon winds W 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 18 mph.

Hourly Temperatures at 8,040ft

Friday

↑45° / ↓23°

Winds: W 5 to 14 mph, then variable 3 to 10 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑44° / ↓25°

Sky

Partly cloudy through the morning.

Snow

None expected through the morning.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Morning winds around the base W 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 18 mph. Expected wind chill to be 19 to 33 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑36° / ↓24°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear into the evening.

Snow

No snow.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base variable at 3 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be 20 to 35 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 8,040ft

Saturday

↑38° / ↓26°

Winds: W 8 to 19 mph, then NW 4 to 13 mph

Forecast Snow: 1"

AM

↑37° / ↓26°

Sky

Mostly cloudy with isolated snow showers through the morning.

Snow

Isolated in the morning.

Precipitation

A trace.

Winds

Morning winds W 8 to 19 mph with gusts up to 43 mph.

PM

↑38° / ↓26°

Sky

Cloudy with snow showers afternoon through overnight.

Snow

1 to 2 inches of snowfall.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.05 inches

Winds

Afternoon winds NW 4 to 13 mph with gusts up to 16 mph.

Hourly Temperatures at 8,040ft

Sunday

↑38° / ↓20°

Winds: variable 3 to 10 mph, then variable 2 to 10 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑37° / ↓25°

Sky

Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy through the morning. Chance of snow after daylight.

Snow

Flurries possible.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Morning winds around the base variable at 3 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be 20 to 26 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑31° / ↓21°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds becoming clear through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base variable at 2 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be 16 to 27 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 8,040ft

Monday

↑40° / ↓20°

Winds: variable 2 to 9 mph, then variable 3 to 10 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑40° / ↓25°

Sky

Clear before noon.

Snow

No snow through the morning.

Precipitation

None expected through the morning.

Winds

Morning winds around the base variable at 2 to 9 mph. Expected wind chill to be 16 to 31 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑33° / ↓22°

Sky

Clear into the evening.

Snow

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected through the afternoon and evening.

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base variable at 3 to 10 mph. Wind chill expected to be 19 to 31 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 8,040ft

Climatology

Mountain Top Climatology

	High Temperatures					Low Temperatures					Precipitation			Snowfall			Snow Depth
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year
1	38	58	1999	19	1979	15	28	2008	-4	1979	0.090	0.70	1996	1.47	11.5	2000	4.3	30	1969
2	36	58	2005	15	1956	14	29	1953	-8	1955	0.055	0.55	1991	1.02	8.1	1967	5.0	28	1969
3	37	52	2015	9	1956	14	28	1988	-14	1991	0.025	0.33	2003	0.59	9.0	2003	4.8	27	1969
4	38	55	2001	17	1956	14	30	1895	-7	1994	0.043	0.50	1996	0.77	8.8	1959	5.0	25	1969
5	38	56	2001	10	1959	15	31	1975	-6	1959	0.052	0.54	1951	0.82	7.5	2005	5.3	24	1969
6	38	55	1975	18	2013	14	29	1975	-9	1959	0.067	1.50	1893	0.96	15.0	1893	5.6	23	1969
7	37	56	1999	18	1895	15	29	2012	-6	1990	0.048	0.78	1991	0.77	10.0	1991	5.8	23	1969
8	38	53	1999	18	1996	15	29	2004	-1	1990	0.036	0.44	1970	0.65	9.8	1970	5.7	24	1969
9	36	52	2006	12	1986	13	27	2006	-8	1990	0.089	0.76	1950	1.47	10.3	1950	6.9	23	1969
10	37	58	2005	15	1998	13	30	2014	-5	1986	0.076	0.86	2002	1.31	16.0	2002	7.6	28	2002
11	37	58	2005	11	1998	13	30	2005	-2	2012	0.052	0.55	2015	0.85	7.0	2015	7.7	28	2002
12	36	58	1999	8	1975	14	30	1954	-7	2012	0.073	0.63	2005	1.26	10.0	2005	8.2	27	2002
13	35	56	1999	8	2000	12	27	1967	-11	2000	0.064	0.97	1951	1.03	13.0	1951	8.4	25	1970
14	35	58	1999	15	2000	12	28	1990	-15	1994	0.089	0.71	2005	1.51	11.0	2014	9.3	25	1969
15	32	60	1999	11	1997	10	30	1999	-15	1956	0.119	1.40	1987	1.67	12.0	2005	10.5	34	2005
16	31	60	1999	9	1955	9	28	1999	-18	1980	0.041	0.39	2014	0.85	5.0	2014	10.4	32	2005
17	31	53	1999	9	2014	9	28	1999	-12	2000	0.058	0.55	2010	1.08	11.0	2010	10.5	28	2010
18	31	50	1981	7	1969	9	23	1990	-16	2000	0.062	0.41	1996	1.12	7.5	1977	10.8	29	2005
19	31	52	2011	12	1957	7	25	1967	-12	2000	0.074	0.67	1991	1.27	10.0	1974	11.4	29	2005
20	32	50	2007	2	1956	8	26	1996	-16	1956	0.050	0.73	1979	0.91	15.0	1979	11.7	28	2015
21	33	59	1989	10	1957	10	28	1966	-10	1956	0.037	0.36	1967	0.63	5.9	1967	11.3	26	1969
22	32	60	1996	9	1979	9	26	1996	-17	1957	0.055	0.60	1999	0.90	8.0	1955	11.8	27	1955
23	31	58	1996	10	2010	8	24	1954	-12	1999	0.069	0.57	1970	1.18	11.0	1967	12.4	28	1970
24	30	48	1996	6	1983	7	24	1998	-8	2007	0.053	0.40	1949	0.82	5.0	2001	12.4	27	1970
25	30	47	1990	5	1952	9	25	1970	-22	2010	0.065	0.52	1979	1.09	11.5	1975	12.9	30	1979
26	29	52	1990	-3	1952	6	22	1977	-19	2010	0.084	1.17	2014	1.40	17.0	2014	13.3	37	2014
27	26	51	1998	5	1959	4	23	1998	-23	1952	0.116	1.20	1893	1.84	12.0	1893	14.5	35	1979
28	25	52	1998	-4	1976	2	19	1999	-27	1976	0.072	1.20	1893	1.15	12.0	1893	14.8	31	1979
29	26	45	1958	2	1994	3	22	2014	-24	1976	0.050	0.40	2006	1.01	8.0	2008	14.6	30	1979
30	29	48	1973	6	2004	6	23	1966	-20	2006	0.050	0.41	1981	0.91	7.0	2008	15.2	29	1975
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year

Mountain Base Climatology

	High Temperatures					Low Temperatures					Precipitation			Snowfall			Snow Depth
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year
1	49	67	2008	29	2013	26	36	1987	9	1991	0.110	0.60	2004	0.98	7.3	2004	2.1	10	1984
2	48	66	2008	25	1991	24	38	2014	6	2004	0.108	0.82	1990	1.12	11.0	1990	2.5	12	1992
3	48	69	2008	31	1991	23	34	1988	-5	1991	0.067	0.57	1992	0.47	5.8	1992	2.4	14	1992
4	48	61	2009	28	1992	22	32	2015	6	1992	0.047	0.40	2003	0.58	4.5	2013	2.4	12	1992
5	49	67	2009	27	1992	22	32	1985	8	1992	0.082	0.62	2008	1.07	14.0	2000	3.1	14	2000
6	49	66	2009	25	2013	24	34	2001	9	2013	0.071	0.59	2011	1.05	6.5	1996	3.2	13	1996
7	48	67	1999	31	2015	23	35	2001	1	2000	0.015	0.16	1998	0.21	3.0	1986	2.8	12	1996
8	49	69	1999	22	1986	24	35	1999	3	2000	0.070	1.00	1985	0.52	12.0	1985	3.0	11	1996
9	49	67	2006	32	1986	23	34	2006	4	1986	0.181	1.80	1988	1.64	12.5	1998	4.0	14	1998
10	46	66	1980	25	1998	23	35	2005	10	1984	0.118	1.12	1992	1.25	13.5	1992	4.3	23	1992
11	47	66	1999	25	1995	22	32	1985	8	1998	0.093	0.51	2000	1.12	6.0	1992	4.7	24	1992
12	46	65	1999	17	2012	22	37	2009	5	2012	0.059	0.54	1997	0.55	6.0	1997	4.4	21	1992
13	46	67	1999	22	2014	20	32	2009	-2	2000	0.061	0.50	1980	0.51	5.7	2014	4.2	17	1992
14	44	66	1999	26	2000	20	31	1995	-3	2000	0.146	0.69	2009	1.78	9.0	2009	5.0	16	1992
15	42	70	1999	22	1985	18	32	1981	-2	1997	0.073	0.44	2005	1.00	5.5	2009	5.5	14	1992
16	42	65	1999	26	1997	17	31	1981	-3	1997	0.051	0.67	1996	0.60	6.2	1996	5.4	15	1996
17	43	66	1999	22	1987	19	32	1999	-3	2000	0.067	0.55	2013	0.91	7.0	1994	5.3	15	1996
18	43	66	1999	24	2000	18	30	2007	-4	2000	0.049	0.30	2003	0.59	4.0	1983	5.1	12	1992
19	42	62	2008	24	2000	17	28	2008	0	1980	0.047	0.50	1982	0.55	5.0	1983	5.6	12	1992
20	43	65	2007	20	1985	17	28	2007	1	1985	0.031	0.28	1990	0.30	3.5	1990	5.1	13	1982
21	45	66	1989	29	1994	17	28	1995	5	2015	0.062	0.40	1983	0.95	6.0	1986	5.5	14	1992
22	42	57	2012	26	1985	17	30	1981	3	1985	0.051	0.50	2010	0.75	5.7	2010	6.0	14	1983
23	41	59	1998	21	2010	15	30	1981	-7	2003	0.073	0.60	2001	1.13	7.5	2001	6.6	16	1992
24	40	59	1998	19	2003	16	31	1988	0	2003	0.053	0.44	2010	0.84	7.0	2010	6.7	20	1992
25	41	61	1990	12	2010	16	34	1981	-13	2010	0.047	0.38	1985	0.61	3.5	1996	6.7	18	1992
26	39	59	1995	16	2010	16	32	1995	-10	2010	0.108	1.25	1989	0.93	12.0	1983	7.3	24	1983
27	36	59	1998	20	1988	13	30	1997	-5	1992	0.102	0.55	1990	0.95	7.5	1990	8.0	24	1983
28	37	63	1998	16	1983	12	30	1998	-4	1992	0.109	1.10	2004	1.33	11.5	2004	8.9	22	1983
29	36	57	1999	19	1994	13	31	1998	-4	1989	0.081	0.85	2006	1.03	10.0	2006	9.1	21	2006
30	37	60	1999	13	2006	13	27	1999	-11	2006	0.040	0.25	2008	0.86	5.0	1996	9.2	20	2006
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year