Keystone Resort Discussion

Updated Friday June 22, 2018

Today a weak low pressure system skirts the area, as our upper level flow goes from Westerly to northwesterly, while a strong high-pressure Ridge builds in to the west. Temperatures are expected to be warmer under mostly sunny skies, and dry conditions, with some Northwest breezes.

On Thursday high-pressure ridging builds in stronger across the area as low pressure moves off to the east, For warmer temperatures, mostly sunny skies and not much wind expected.

On Friday we expect a low pressure system from the northwest US to clip the area with increased winds and dry conditions across the area. Only a few clouds are expected south of this low pressure system.

Saturday through Monday a stronger low pressure system drops in from out of the Northwest, with increased moisture and a good chance for showers and thunderstorms across western Colorado, including Aspen Snowmass, especially on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to cool down Sunday and Monday as this happens.

By Tuesday and Wednesday low pressure is exiting and a high pressure ridge builds in. We expect a west/ northwest wind flow across the area leaving most of western Colorado closed off to any moisture, so the air will be much drier, skies mostly sunny, and temperatures on the rise.

LONGER RANGE FORECAST
By next Tuesday and through the rest of June it looks like we will have a high pressure ridge located to the east, with low pressure still remaining persistent across the Northwest US, causing an open door to monsoonal moisture from out of the Gulf of Mexico, and resultant increased chances for thunderstorms and showers in Aspen and western Colorado, otherwise temperatures will be summer-like and warm. Mostly sunny skies are expected overall, with periods of mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon hours, as is to be expected during thunderstorm season.

US Extended Snowfall Outlook - Updated May 13, 2018

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK from snowforecast.com - May 13, 2018

Updated Sunday May 13, 2018-

Low pressure will continue frequently affecting the west coast right into June, with late season upper-mountain snowfalls expected at times for Aspen and western Colorado. Do You want to see OTHER AREAS mentioned, email me and let me know... CM

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

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Mountain Summit Forecast

Friday

↑55° / ↓35°

Winds: W 18 to 30 mph, then W 23 to 35 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑55° / ↓38°

Sky

Mostly cloudy through the morning.

Snow

None expected in the morning hours.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected through the morning.

Winds

Morning winds near the top W 18 to 30 mph with gusts up to 38 mph. Wind chill expected to be 23 to 26 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑54° / ↓35°

Sky

Partly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds into the evening.

Snow

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top W 23 to 35 mph with gusts up to 44 mph. Wind chill expected to be 12 to 24 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 13,323ft

Saturday

↑56° / ↓33°

Winds: W 11 to 22 mph, then SW 11 to 22 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑51° / ↓33°

Sky

Clear becoming mostly cloudy before noon.

Snow

No snow through the morning.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected through the morning.

Winds

Morning winds near the top W 11 to 22 mph with gusts up to 28 mph. Wind chill expected to be 11 to 22 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑55° / ↓38°

Sky

Mostly cloudy through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

No snow.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected through the afternoon and evening.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top SW 11 to 22 mph with gusts up to 29 mph. Wind chill expected to be 22 to 28 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 13,323ft

Sunday

↑52° / ↓31°

Winds: W 9 to 20 mph, then W 13 to 25 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑52° / ↓33°

Sky

Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy before noon.

Snow

None expected in the morning hours.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: 0.04 to 0.18 inches

Winds

Morning winds near the top W 9 to 20 mph with gusts up to 21 mph. Expected wind chill to be 11 to 25 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑45° / ↓31°

Sky

Overcast becoming mostly cloudy into the evening.

Snow

No snow.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top W 13 to 25 mph with gusts up to 31 mph. Expected wind chill to be 6 to 14 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 13,323ft

Monday

↑51° / ↓30°

Winds: NW 14 to 26 mph, then W 22 to 34 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑45° / ↓30°

Sky

Overcast through the morning.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.03 inches

Winds

Morning winds near the top NW 14 to 26 mph with gusts up to 34 mph. Wind chill expected to be 7 to 14 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑49° / ↓36°

Sky

Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy into the evening.

Snow

No snow through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top W 22 to 34 mph with gusts up to 43 mph. Wind chill expected to be 14 to 22 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 13,323ft

Tuesday

↑61° / ↓38°

Winds: NW 11 to 22 mph, then SW 6 to 15 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑56° / ↓38°

Sky

Clear through the morning.

Snow

No snow.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected in the morning hours.

Winds

Morning winds near the top NW 11 to 22 mph with gusts up to 28 mph. Wind chill expected to be 19 to 29 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑59° / ↓44°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds into the evening.

Snow

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected through the afternoon and evening.

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top SW 6 to 15 mph. Wind chill expected to be 29 to 34 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 13,323ft

Wednesday

↑60° / ↓42°

Winds: SW 5 to 14 mph, then W 7 to 16 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑59° / ↓43°

Sky

Clear becoming partly cloudy before noon.

Snow

No snow.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Morning winds near the top SW 5 to 14 mph. Expected wind chill to be 32 to 39 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑57° / ↓44°

Sky

Overcast into the evening.

Snow

No snow through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: 0.06 to 0.28 inches

Winds

Afternoon winds near the top W 7 to 16 mph. Wind chill expected to be 31 to 34 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 13,323ft

Mountain Base Forecast

Friday

↑67° / ↓42°

Winds: W 13 to 25 mph, then W 8 to 17 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑67° / ↓44°

Sky

Mostly cloudy before noon.

Snow

No snow through the morning.

Precipitation

None expected through the morning.

Winds

Morning winds around the base W 13 to 25 mph with gusts up to 27 mph. Wind chill expected to be 41 to 56 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑66° / ↓42°

Sky

Partly cloudy becoming mostly clear with a few clouds into the evening.

Snow

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

None expected.

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base W 8 to 17 mph with gusts up to 19 mph. Wind chill expected to be 37 to 56 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 9,264ft

Saturday

↑68° / ↓39°

Winds: W 8 to 19 mph, then SW 6 to 15 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑63° / ↓39°

Sky

Clear becoming mostly cloudy through the morning.

Snow

None expected through the morning.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected through the morning.

Winds

Morning winds around the base W 8 to 19 mph with gusts up to 24 mph. Expected wind chill to be 35 to 52 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑67° / ↓47°

Sky

Mostly cloudy into the evening.

Snow

No snow.

Precipitation

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base SW 6 to 15 mph with gusts up to 19 mph. Temperatures will feel like they are between 46 to 58 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 9,264ft

Sunday

↑61° / ↓37°

Winds: W 10 to 21 mph, then NW 5 to 14 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑60° / ↓42°

Sky

Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy through the morning.

Snow

None expected in the morning hours.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: 0.06 to 0.3 inches

Winds

Morning winds around the base W 10 to 21 mph with gusts up to 26 mph. Wind chill expected to be 37 to 48 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑58° / ↓37°

Sky

Overcast becoming mostly cloudy into the evening.

Snow

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base NW 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 17 mph. Expected wind chill to be 29 to 49 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 9,264ft

Monday

↑62° / ↓36°

Winds: NW 10 to 21 mph, then W 8 to 19 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑58° / ↓36°

Sky

Overcast before noon.

Snow

No snow in the morning hours.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: 0.01 to 0.03 inches

Winds

Morning winds around the base NW 10 to 21 mph with gusts up to 22 mph. Wind chill expected to be 27 to 47 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑61° / ↓44°

Sky

Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy into the evening.

Snow

No snow through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base W 8 to 19 mph with gusts up to 28 mph. Wind chill expected to be 39 to 52 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 9,264ft

Tuesday

↑73° / ↓43°

Winds: NW 10 to 21 mph, then SW 6 to 15 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑69° / ↓43°

Sky

Clear through the morning.

Snow

None expected in the morning hours.

Precipitation

No precipitation expected.

Winds

Morning winds around the base NW 10 to 21 mph with gusts up to 26 mph. Expected wind chill to be 37 to 60 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑71° / ↓50°

Sky

Mostly clear with a few clouds through the afternoon and evening.

Snow

No snow.

Precipitation

None expected through the afternoon and evening.

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base SW 6 to 15 mph. Temperatures will feel like they are between 48 to 64 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 9,264ft

Wednesday

↑72° / ↓47°

Winds: SW 5 to 14 mph, then W 7 to 16 mph

Forecast Snow: 0"

AM

↑70° / ↓48°

Sky

Clear becoming partly cloudy before noon.

Snow

None expected.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: trace amount

Winds

Morning winds around the base SW 5 to 14 mph. Temperatures will feel like they are between 48 to 68 degrees through the morning.

PM

↑68° / ↓48°

Sky

Cloudy into the evening.

Snow

No snow through the afternoon and evening.

Precipitation

Potential Precip: 0.06 to 0.28 inches

Winds

Afternoon winds around the base W 7 to 16 mph. Temperatures will feel like they are between 42 to 60 degrees into the evening.

Hourly Temperatures at 9,264ft

Climatology

Mountain Top Climatology

	High Temperatures					Low Temperatures					Precipitation			Snowfall			Snow Depth
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year
1	53	72	2002	36	1988	29	40	2002	15	1970	0.035	0.38	1983	0.19	3.8	1964	5.0	46	1957
2	53	68	2002	33	1988	30	39	1997	10	1990	0.077	0.80	1895	0.37	8.0	1895	4.8	43	1957
3	55	66	2002	43	1988	30	40	1958	12	1990	0.042	0.49	2009	0.21	5.0	1951	4.1	39	1957
4	55	64	2006	38	1955	31	42	1958	18	1993	0.040	0.49	1965	0.31	4.8	1965	3.2	37	1957
5	55	68	2012	37	1973	31	40	2010	15	1995	0.046	0.40	2003	0.20	2.5	2003	2.6	34	1957
6	56	72	1977	38	2008	31	41	2010	18	1973	0.058	0.50	1974	0.26	4.5	1974	2.6	30	1957
7	56	71	2006	38	1974	31	42	2010	17	1993	0.075	1.81	1984	0.54	18.0	1984	2.6	27	1957
8	56	72	2000	31	1993	32	46	1985	15	1974	0.076	1.22	1979	0.45	9.3	1979	2.3	26	1957
9	56	72	2004	31	1974	31	45	1981	17	2012	0.065	0.70	1997	0.36	5.3	1963	1.8	24	1957
10	56	72	2002	40	1995	31	42	2016	15	1995	0.042	0.37	1986	0.15	3.5	1975	1.3	22	1957
11	56	74	2013	39	1995	32	44	2010	20	1995	0.038	0.59	1970	0.21	6.5	1970	1.0	21	1957
12	56	71	1956	40	1970	32	44	1959	20	2008	0.035	0.45	2015	0.13	3.5	1970	0.7	19	1957
13	57	71	2013	40	2008	33	43	2013	18	2005	0.045	0.65	2005	0.20	5.0	2005	0.6	17	1957
14	58	70	2006	38	1983	32	44	1963	13	1976	0.031	0.31	2015	0.14	5.5	2001	0.5	17	1957
15	57	70	2006	39	2001	32	42	1956	11	1981	0.034	0.70	1981	0.13	5.0	1998	0.4	16	1957
16	58	73	1989	40	1996	33	45	1985	18	1975	0.052	0.75	1963	0.17	5.0	1957	0.4	18	1957
17	59	68	2002	41	1957	34	43	1954	16	1957	0.035	0.57	1969	0.05	1.0	1993	0.3	17	1957
18	60	72	1994	40	1998	34	46	1954	21	1957	0.037	0.44	1963	0.02	0.6	1973	0.2	14	1957
19	60	72	2012	40	2011	33	45	1960	10	1976	0.047	1.14	1953	0.16	6.0	1953	0.3	11	1957
20	61	74	2012	38	1979	35	46	2015	20	1973	0.037	0.48	1966	0.07	3.5	2011	0.2	9	1957
21	62	76	2014	40	2011	36	48	1981	25	1975	0.025	0.55	2009	0.01	0.8	1957	0.1	8	1957
22	62	75	1954	48	2004	36	48	2015	22	2004	0.023	0.35	2004	0.05	3.2	1964	0.1	7	1957
23	63	78	1981	48	1989	36	48	2012	21	1989	0.011	0.18	1976	0.00	0.3	1989	0.0	2	1957
24	63	75	2012	46	1976	37	50	2012	18	1976	0.024	0.31	1969	0.02	1.3	1969	0.0	0	2015
25	63	77	1981	32	1969	36	47	2012	18	1977	0.044	0.54	1969	0.09	5.8	1969	0.0	0	2015
26	63	77	1981	35	1969	37	47	2012	21	1977	0.025	0.27	1969	0.09	4.9	1969	0.0	0	2015
27	63	75	1981	39	1985	37	46	2012	22	1985	0.039	0.35	2001	0.00	0.1	1894	0.0	0	2015
28	64	74	2013	47	1983	38	47	1970	30	1995	0.041	0.67	1959	0.01	0.6	1959	0.0	T	1959
29	66	75	1990	56	1996	39	54	1979	32	2004	0.038	0.57	1970	0.00	0.0	2015	0.0	0	2015
30	65	74	1998	47	1995	37	48	1990	22	1978	0.059	1.09	1987	T	T	1964	0.0	0	2015
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year

Mountain Base Climatology

	High Temperatures					Low Temperatures					Precipitation			Snowfall			Snow Depth
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year
1	58	70	1898	30	1895	28	32	1897	19	1895	0.043	0.36	2003	0.07	2.2	1903	0.0	0	2015
2	58	74	1898	25	1895	31	54	1896	19	1895	0.047	0.49	2009	0.11	2.9	1949	0.0	T	1951
3	58	71	1905	29	1895	30	56	1896	18	1895	0.084	0.90	1951	0.20	9.9	1951	0.1	5	1951
4	57	72	1902	34	1895	29	50	1896	17	1895	0.083	1.46	1949	0.26	6.5	1973	0.0	2	1965
5	60	70	1911	44	1897	28	41	1896	12	1895	0.049	0.51	1972	0.10	4.2	1897	0.0	T	1965
6	61	73	1910	45	1897	30	44	1912	20	1893	0.068	1.96	1984	0.21	13.0	1984	0.0	0	2015
7	62	79	1902	42	1906	30	36	1905	25	1906	0.043	0.52	1965	0.14	4.0	1993	0.1	3	2003
8	62	74	1902	50	1899	33	54	1896	24	1894	0.072	1.06	1979	0.04	1.5	1986	0.0	1	2008
9	63	82	1896	48	1899	32	40	1897	25	1909	0.058	0.73	1995	0.04	1.5	1971	0.0	T	1963
10	64	77	1896	48	1903	30	45	1896	21	1911	0.040	0.43	1969	0.02	2.0	1975	0.0	1	1969
11	65	84	1893	48	1899	31	46	1906	24	1909	0.039	0.55	1970	0.03	2.0	1968	0.0	0	2015
12	64	75	1906	45	1898	31	38	1906	25	1901	0.035	0.61	1970	0.01	0.5	2008	0.0	0	2015
13	66	75	1906	54	1903	34	46	1910	25	1909	0.046	1.23	2010	0.08	3.1	2010	0.1	3	2010
14	66	77	1896	50	1900	34	51	1896	23	1894	0.046	0.60	1962	0.06	2.0	1976	0.0	0	2015
15	64	78	1906	42	1912	32	46	1896	21	1897	0.051	0.60	1999	T	T	1957	0.0	0	2015
16	66	77	1906	48	1912	31	54	1896	20	1897	0.065	0.87	1963	0.06	3.2	1957	0.0	0	2015
17	67	80	1893	44	1912	31	42	1896	19	1897	0.039	0.53	1912	0.01	0.5	1989	0.0	0	2015
18	66	82	1893	50	1912	31	40	1909	22	1902	0.058	0.73	1995	0.07	2.0	1973	0.0	0	2015
19	69	83	1893	57	1912	31	46	1896	20	1902	0.055	1.02	2000	0.02	1.0	1973	0.0	0	2015
20	68	78	1896	60	1907	31	47	1896	18	1902	0.025	0.55	2011	0.03	2.2	2011	0.0	2	2011
21	68	75	1910	61	1894	31	39	1904	14	1902	0.039	0.68	1911	T	T	1957	0.0	0	2015
22	70	77	1910	61	1904	32	39	1898	27	1909	0.029	0.36	2004	0.03	2.1	1989	0.0	0	2015
23	69	77	1910	59	1906	33	49	1893	26	1894	0.013	0.18	1906	0.01	0.5	1951	0.0	0	2015
24	68	78	1901	58	1906	32	40	1896	25	1894	0.021	0.34	1985	0.02	2.0	1976	0.0	0	2015
25	69	76	1902	50	1904	32	42	1901	20	1911	0.032	0.50	1969	T	T	2008	0.0	0	2015
26	70	79	1901	57	1899	34	45	1901	28	1909	0.036	0.56	1983	T	T	2007	0.0	0	2015
27	70	78	1903	49	1894	34	48	1901	29	1907	0.033	0.33	1948	0.01	0.5	1985	0.0	0	2015
28	70	78	1903	59	1896	36	51	1901	28	1893	0.034	0.57	1959	0.09	5.5	1902	0.0	0	2015
29	70	81	1898	54	1895	35	52	1901	28	1908	0.030	0.53	1987	T	T	2007	0.0	0	2015
30	72	84	1898	58	1895	37	55	1901	28	1893	0.047	0.52	1995	0.00	0.0	2015	0.0	0	2015
Day	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	High	Year	Low	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year	Avg	Max	Year