If snowfall and snow accumulation is an accepted milestone, Summer is officially over for Tahoe, tomorrow!
Say goodbye to this Squaw Valley High Camp view...
...and "hello", to a view more like this...
A cold low pressure system that moved out of the Gulf of Alaska is expected to hit Tahoe with some snowflakes, probably a trace to 1" of snow in town and around the lake Thursday morning, and...
2 to 4" of snow for higher elevations above 7,000 feet, and we are predicting 3 to 5" of snow for Squaw Valley High Camp (8,200 feet), and at the top of Alpine Meadows! 2 to 4" of new snow is very likely for the rest of the mountain!
Dew points at 5,000 feet will be in the 30-33F range between 9am and 6pm on Thursday, when we expect most of this snow to fall.
Temperatures will remain mostly between 34 and 42 on the mountain, with most of the snowfall expected between 9am and 6pm, becoming cold with isolated snow showers in the evening and overnight. By Thursday night and Friday morning, temperatures drop into the 15Fto 23F range on the mountain, with a layer of fresh snow!
Below, see the culprits for this snowfall...
Area of instability on IR Satellite imagery... moving in:
Strong Jet Stream (110+ knots) Dynamics, and southwest orientation (perfect for Tahoe), on the way tonight/ tomorrow:
500 millibar (commonly known as the "steering flow" for mid-latitude storms) "vort max" is moving in and across the region, which aids, at times, in heavier precipitation than forecast by the computer models:
700 millibar (more mid-level atmosphere guidance) forecasts show good upward vertical velocity overhead for the region, with sufficient moisture for precipitation and the snowfall we are forecasting:
Friday looks cold and drier with north winds, plus we cannot rule out a few snow flurries on the mountain as some weak disturbances may still be embedded in the wind flow overhead. Otherwise, a warm up is expected into the weekend and next week:
We expect this to be the forecast, mostly sunny and mild, into early October, with a change back to unsettled around the 5th of October, and more deep and cold low pressure forming across the west around the 10th or so of October. CM
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