Where to be for the best snow this weekend! (8-10th Feb)

WHERE TO BE IN THE WESTERN USA THIS WEEKEND!

Here is our early forecast for this weekend…

Hands-down, Tahoe – Mammoth will be the winner in terms of snow all through this weekend, with NO snow level issues, in fact dry and cold powder is what we mostly expect, especially on Sunday…

We are expecting two storms to move through, the first of which will be the weaker of the two, and will also be faster moving one, mainly a wave out ahead of the main storm to hit Saturday and Sunday.

It looks like the snow will begin flying again mainly Friday afternoon through overnight, with 6 to 10 inches of fresh snow forecast to be on the ground for the Saturday morning snow report, for favored resorts across Northern Tahoe like Sugar Bowl and Squaw-Alpine, and 3 to 6 inches of snow for other areas.

Friday, First storm, GFS Snow Accumulation by Saturday 4am based on a 1:10 water to snow ratio, whereas the water to snow ratio will be closer to 1:15 (more snow than shown on this map, is what is expected by the Saturday morning snow report)…

Screen Shot 2019-02-06 at 14.03.38

A stronger and larger scale, slower moving, and offshore positioning storm system starts dropping in from out of the north, located offshore, looking stronger/ colder, more dynamic, and dropping heavy snow Saturday and Sunday, basically ALL weekend long! We expect to see  10  to 18 inches of snow each day all across Tahoe-Mammoth, for a total of 2 (south Tahoe, Mammoth) to 3+ (north Tahoe) feet of extra snow expected this weekend! Saturday and Sunday!

Friday through Sunday, 2 storms, GFS Snow Accumulation by Sunday 4pm (close of business for most resorts on Sunday) based on a 1:10 water to snow ratio, whereas the water to snow ratio will be closer to 1:15 and even 1:20 (possibly MUCH more snow than shown on this map, is what is expected by the Sunday afternoon at 4pm! The snow will continue through Monday morning, so show up Monday if you like less crowds, DEEP and Fresh snow, and sunshine! Cold-smoke, No-joke powder! (on top of deep bases!)

Screen Shot 2019-02-06 at 14.47.22

Combined with the snow that has already fallen across Tahoe-Mammoth in recent weeks, conditions will be amazing this weekend! In fact, we are expecting no snow level issues whatsoever, and even a drier/ colder cold-smoke powder, especially on Sunday. If you are just looking for the best and deepest snow, Tahoe-Mammoth is going to be the place out west, this coming weekend! Resorts like Sugar Bowl will be favored with these storms, as they lie more westward than most, and will take up the bulk of available moisture and thus snowfall! Enjoy!!

12Z-20190206_GFSUS_prec_kuchsnow-48-123-10-100(Check out the bulls-eye of heavy snow from Tahoe to southern Idaho)

Here is a video I put together explaining how moisture and dynamics are looking:

Meteorologist- CM

4 to 5 FEET of snow for Tahoe through weekend/ Monday! Long Range update too!

Jan 31, 2019 – 3pm Pacific Time

4 to 5 FEET of snow is expected for Tahoe this weekend through Monday, then expect sun + fresh snow on Tuesday!

Heavy snow is expected for Tahoe on Saturday, but not at lake level!

At lake level and many resort base elevations below 7,000 feet, expect an initial snowfall of several inches Friday night, followed by rain or rain snow mix on Saturday, multiple feet, but snow levels with an expected dew point near 40F during the heaviest precip on Saturday will be at least 7,000 feet, so only places like Mt Rose and Kirkwood will be seeing base snowfall on Saturday through about early afternoon, then colder air moves in with the last part of that storm.  Upper mountain areas above 7,000 and 7,500 feet will see heavy snowfall, possibly 2 feet on Saturday, of some dense “Sierra Cement”.

Show up on Sunday for some fresh lighter and colder powder on top of the cement, Sunday morning… Snow will still be falling…

On Monday a cold and strong system moves in with another 1+ to 2 feet of snow, and NO snow level issues!

If you want sunshine and deep fresh powder, Tahoe is looking awesome Tuesday and even Wednesday with some untracked powder likely after a weekday. Go get it! CM

No snow level issues are expected for Mammoth on Saturday, and 2+ feet of powder are expected to fall just that day, more on Sunday but lighter… The Monday storm will not drop as much snow in Mammoth as in Tahoe as it is a more northern track system, but we still expect close to a foot of new snow! CM

Expect 1 to 1 1/2 feet of snow in Big Bear Saturday through Saturday night, with snow levels up around 7,000 feet

Snow Model for this weekend through Monday:

Click for larger image

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: Most of next week is expected to be tranquil under a ridge of high pressure, then late next week/ weekend (mainly weekend, 9th/ 10th) we expect low pressure to move in off the Pacific. This will be strong low pressure aided by large scale low pressure troughing developing across the west coast and soon after the western US. Initially and at times there will be snow levels rising to near/ above 7,000 feet as we expect a tropical moisture tap with many storms, but we also expect plenty of snow down to lower elevations thanks to an active Gulf of Alaska and plenty of follow up cold storms. We expect this type of pattern to mostly dominate February, until late Feb when we may be back under high pressure ridging and no storms. El Nino is expected to possibly stick around for 2 years, so we may be looking good for a while. Expect a drawn out and rainy/ snowy spring for California. CM

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TAHOE FORECAST DISCUSSION – Mar 14, 2019

LONGER RANGE FORECAST Updated Thursday Mar 14, 2019: This weekend we expect sunny skies and spring-like 50’s in Tahoe, with heaps of snow this season so far… Early next week, same thing.
Now on to the long range: mid next week we see some Pacific storm energy moving in off the mid-Pacific, for some light to moderate snowfall across Tahoe, Mammoth favored. Snow levels may be in the 7,000 foot range at times. Following this we expect a stronger set of storms for next weekend (22nd – 24th), and possibly heavier snow with less or no snow level issues for lower base elevation resorts. The last few days of March and into April we expect to see more storms, this time colder and from colder source regions. CM

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/snowforecast

TahoePic for site

NOTES: When paying full attention to the Tahoe area, which I have been watching weather patterns for since the 1970’s, no one is more accurate in their forecasts of weather events/ timing/ snow totals, including in the long range. We gained quite a reputation for our Tahoe forecasts over a span of almost 15 years, gaining the attention of TV stations who used the forecasts with no mention of source, a movie financier who wanted me to be a part of a “think tank” group of professionals, radio stations, etc. Even major growers/ ag interests were using these free forecasts (for the longer range accuracy of weather event timing and significance), as an accurate long range forecaster is the equivalent of a “fortune teller”, as told to me by the movie financier. There are competitors who charge for their info, and we do not, even though our information is a paid service in other formats we continue to deliver to agriculture customers to this day (Circa 1995). As I stated, I put my forecasts up against anyone else’s in the area.

I never charged the site user for my services. The skier/ snowboarder has enough to pay for with fuel, lift tickets and passes, gear, life, etc., and I feel it is a service that should be provided by the host, the resort, to its visitors, even if in the form of advertising on the site. I have the same awesome, nice traffic as the rest of the snow sports niche sites, but am not going to run Google ads so they can charge $20/ cpm and give us less than a dollar cpm (literally their crumbs, and what are they creating on a daily basis? weather forecasts? So, no thanks).

That said… I watch Colorado as that is where the business is for me. Recently, Bogus Basin joined the client list and now we work up a complete custom forecast for them as well, with a long range outlook. I will be drawing from that already completed work, and add more scrutiny on what is coming for Tahoe-Mammoth, to deliver some short, but mostly longer range outlooks for Tahoe. I hope it is useful for you. CM

SOUTHWEST CANADA FORECAST DISCUSSION – Updated Mar 14, 2019

REST OF MARCH: Saturday we expect a fairly well organized low pressure system to move in and drop mostly light to moderate snow across the region. Mid next week we expect storms to move in across the western US, most of it south of Canada, then next weekend we could be seeing some snow as a stronger storm moves into the area, but again mostly south. The last few days of March and into April should improve with stronger and colder, more northern path systems expected. Revelstoke (which has the most vertical in North America, and arguably some of the best terrain also) is still looking good! CM

Most of the snow accumulation shown below occurs next weekend, March 22nd – 24th:
Screen Shot 2019-03-14 at 12.12.43

 

TAHOE FORECAST DISCUSSION – JAN 11, 2019

SHORTER RANGE: Currently all storm energy is being pushed to the south into southern California, with some heavy snow for the SoCal Mountains. By this coming Monday night and Tuesday, we are expecting 6 to 12 inches of snow overall for the Mammoth through Tahoe area, as a weakened storm moves in but is deflected mostly, causing a glancing blow to the area, for limited moisture and dynamics, then, Next Tuesday through Thursday (15th-17th Jan)… HEAVY SNOW, multiple feet per day even, moves into Tahoe and Mammoth, thanks to deep moisture and strong dynamics, plus an always favored southwest flow of winds across the mountains. The last storm, late Wednesday through Thursday, looks the strongest and looks like it will move in across the area, for full forcing to deliver max snowfall. Show up next Friday for the most fresh + sunshine possibilities as clearing is expected… CM

LONGER RANGE: From the last update about a week ago, this unsettled period should last into around the 18th-20th of January (looking like it ends mostly Friday the 18th as the last storm departs), then in the last part of Jan and early February (through the 8th of Feb maybe), we start off with a snow down time under high pressure ridging. Storms begin to move in again after, frequently for frequent snow. CM

NOTES: When paying full attention to the Tahoe area, which I have been watching weather patterns for since the 1970’s, no one is more accurate in their forecasts of weather events/ timing/ snow totals, including in the long range. We gained quite a reputation for our Tahoe forecasts over a span of almost 15 years, gaining the attention of TV stations who used the forecasts with no mention of source, a movie financier who wanted me to be a part of a “think tank” group of professionals, radio stations, etc. Even major growers/ ag interests were using these free forecasts (for the longer range accuracy of weather event timing and significance), as an accurate long range forecaster is the equivalent of a “fortune teller”, as told to me by the movie financier. There are competitors who charge for their info, and we do not, even though our information is a paid service in other formats we continue to deliver to agriculture customers to this day (Circa 1995). As I stated, I put my forecasts up against anyone else’s in the area.

I never charged the site user for my services. The skier/ snowboarder has enough to pay for with fuel, lift tickets and passes, gear, life, etc., and I feel it is a service that should be provided by the host, the resort, to its visitors, even if in the form of advertising on the site. I have the same awesome, nice traffic as the rest of the snow sports niche sites, but am not going to run Google ads so they can charge $20/ cpm and give us less than a dollar cpm (literally their crumbs, and what are they creating on a daily basis? weather forecasts? So, no thanks).

That said… I watch Colorado as that is where the business is for me. Recently, Bogus Basin joined the client list and now we work up a complete custom forecast for them as well, with a long range outlook. I will be drawing from that already completed work to deliver you some short, but mostly longer range outlooks for Tahoe, for now. I hope it is useful for you. CM

LONG RANGE FORECAST – JAN 05, 2019

It has been a while since we updated this outlook. When paying full attention to any area we forecast for, which I have been watching weather patterns for (the western US also) since the 1970’s, I put my forecasts of weather events/ timing/ snow totals up against any, especially in the long range. We gained quite a reputation for our Tahoe and Utah forecasts over a span of almost 15 years, gaining the attention of TV stations who used the forecasts with no mention of source, a movie financier who wanted me to be a part of a “think tank” group of professionals, radio stations, etc. Even major growers/ ag interests were using these free forecasts (for the longer range accuracy of weather event timing and significance), as an accurate long range forecaster is the equivalent of a “fortune teller”, as told to me by the movie financier. There are competitors who charge for their info, and we do not, even though our information is a paid service in other formats we continue to deliver to agriculture customers to this day (Circa 1995). As I stated, I put my forecasts up against anyone else’s in the area.

We gave out over $50,000 in SWAG (lodging, tickets, passes, gear, even Nativa Naturals food) from 2009-2011, stuff we couldn’t even afford to buy ourselves, to many people from SFO and SAC, TVL area. If you check my bio you will see my story, there is a LOT more to it than what I am typing here.

I have received many emails due to the missing updates. The answer is, we have not had any support from advertisers, resorts, anyone in this region since around 2013. I continued on with the forecasting hoping for some support in the form of advertising or sponsorship, but it didn’t happen, and I do not know anyone else who works for free.

That said, I would like to get these forecast outlooks going again–>

I never charged the site user for this service. The skier/ snowboarder has enough to pay for with fuel, lift tickets and passes, gear, life, etc., and I feel it is a service that should be provided by the host, the resort, to its visitors, even if in the form of advertising on the site. I have the same awesome, nice traffic as the rest of the snow sports niche sites, but am not going to run Google ads so they can charge $20/ cpm and give us less than a dollar cpm.

That said… I watch Colorado as that is where the business is for me. Recently, Bogus Basin joined the client list and now we work up a complete custom forecast for them as well, with a long range outlook. I will be drawing from that already completed work to deliver you a broad-brush longer range outlook for the western US, for now. I hope it is useful for you:

LONGER RANGE: The 9th-10th of January another low pressure system moves in with good potential snowfall, significant snow for the west coast mainly, less as we move inland, southern areas favored like southwest US areas,The 11-12th (roughly) and then the 13th-20th of January, we expect unsettled conditions to continue dominating the western US (had this forecast for over a month, early Dec forecast for this mid-late Jan time frame), and we expect a prominent moisture tap from the tropics, as El Nino starts to show itself more… So basically, between the 9th and 20th, we expect many more storms to move through with snow for most western US resort areas, down south to including Southern California and even favoring the southwest US as a more southerly track seems more likely… This unsettled period should last into around the 18th-20th of January, then in the last part of Jan and early February (through the 8th of Feb maybe), we start off with a snow down time under more dominant high pressure ridging. More to come. CM

LONG RANGE FORECAST – JAN 05, 2019

It has been a while since we updated this outlook. When paying full attention to the Tahoe area, which I have been watching weather patterns for since the 1970’s, no one is more accurate in their forecasts of weather events/ timing/ snow totals, including in the long range. We gained quite a reputation for our Tahoe forecasts over a span of almost 15 years, gaining the attention of TV stations who used the forecasts with no mention of source, a movie financier who wanted me to be a part of a “think tank” group of professionals, radio stations, etc. Even major growers/ ag interests were using these free forecasts (for the longer range accuracy of weather event timing and significance), as an accurate long range forecaster is the equivalent of a “fortune teller”, as told to me by the movie financier. There are competitors who charge for their info, and we do not, even though our information is a paid service in other formats we continue to deliver to agriculture customers to this day (Circa 1995). As I stated, I put my forecasts up against anyone else’s in the area.

We gave out over $50,000 in SWAG (lodging, tickets, passes, gear, even Nativa Naturals food) from 2009-2011, stuff we couldn’t even afford to buy ourselves, to many people from SFO and SAC, TVL area. If you check my bio you will see my story, there is a LOT more to it than what I am typing here.

I have received many emails due to the missing updates. The answer is, we have not had any support from advertisers, resorts, anyone in this region since around 2013. I continued on with the forecasting hoping for some support in the form of advertising or sponsorship, but it didn’t happen, and I do not know anyone else who works for free.

That said, I would like to get these forecast outlooks going again–>

I never charged the site user for this service. The skier/ snowboarder has enough to pay for with fuel, lift tickets and passes, gear, life, etc., and I feel it is a service that should be provided by the host, the resort, to its visitors, even if in the form of advertising on the site. I have the same awesome, nice traffic as the rest of the snow sports niche sites, but am not going to run Google ads so they can charge $20/ cpm and give us less than a dollar cpm.

That said… I watch Colorado as that is where the business is for me. Recently, Bogus Basin joined the client list and now we work up a complete custom forecast for them as well, with a long range outlook. I will be drawing from that already completed work to deliver you a broad-brush longer range outlook for Tahoe, for now. I hope it is useful for you:

LONGER RANGE: The 9th of January another low pressure system moves in with good potential snowfall, on the order of roughly a foot of snow so not a big deal but definitely welcomed fresh snow. The snow levels should run just below resort elevations for the typical “Sierra Cement”, dense base building snowfall. The 11-12th (roughly) and then the 13-18th of January, we expect unsettled conditions to continue dominating the western US (had this forecast for over a month, early Dec forecast for this mid-late Jan time frame), and we expect a prominent moisture tap from the tropics, as El Nino starts to show itself more… So basically, between the 9th and 18th, we expect many more storms to move through with snow for Tahoe through Mammoth, and down south to including SoCal… Not bad! This unsettled period should last into around the 18th-20th of January, then in the last part of Jan and early February (through the 8th maybe), we start off with a snow down time under high pressure ridging. More to come. CM

Southern Idaho/ Bogus Basin to be hit with snow, strong winds on Tuesday…

Monday at 3pm…

A big storm is coming in terms of wind and moderate snow, with multiple feet of snow to the north across north Idaho…

The jet stream will give strong dynamics, and we will see good moisture and some dense, base-building snowfall, about 4-7″ to Bogus Basin, around 4″ near the base and about 7 inches of snowfall up top, Tuesday morning through evening mainly. We are hoping for more but this will be a good coverage type of snow, helping to erase the early season thin spots.

We have more storms coming too, right through the holidays, and we are watching, updating, even giving long range forecasts out to a month+ away! Please be sure to check the details at our custom forecast for Bogus Basin HERE, sponsored by Bogus Basin!

Dec 16, 2018 – Inland NW Weather Discussion

A milder and stronger storm with close to 1″ of precipitable water and 1/2 to 1 foot of snow for 49N, Mt Spokane, and Schweitzer today and tonight, is moving into the Northwest US. Roughly 1/2 foot of snow is expected to Lookout Pass, then more snow there into tomorrow/ Monday. Snow levels are expected to be near 4,000 feet (resort base elevations) under a southwest wind flow across the mountains, and a moisture tap from the subtropics.

Monday looks like we should see some sunshine as we are mostly between storms, but snow lingers for Lookout Pass. Monday night, we are seeing snow again. This storm moves in more from the west, with a strong pressure gradient and very strong winds expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, under strong jet stream dynamics, when 1 to 2 feet of snow are expected across the regions resorts. Snow levels will be a close call, up above resort bases at times near 5,000+ feet, so some rain is expected at times at base elevations. If the jet stream ends up a bit more south, snow levels will be lower.

Wednesday we see clouds clearing and cool temperatures from 49N to Schweitzer, and lingering snow for Lookout Pass, with fresh new snow to ski and board on Wednesday under now building high pressure ridging aloft and exiting low pressure/ moisture/ dynamics, and decreasing winds… By Thursday we are squarely under high pressure ridging aloft, with milder temperatures and less wind expected, though a quick shot of snow moves through Thursday afternoon through overnight.

LONGER RANGE: Friday and through the weekend (21st – 23rd) we expect a couple of low pressure systems to move through with potential snowfall, looking light to moderate at this point, but MORE snow nonetheless. Right now probably 2-5″ of snow from each storm is the best bet, but of course we will monitor and update. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day a stronger and possibly juicier storm moves through the area with a better shot of heavier snow just in time for these days off. A couple of days later around the 27th-29th, another couple of storms may move through with a last blast of snow before a potential 2 week down time under high pressure ridging and dry/ milder conditions. By the 10th-15th of January we should be back into a regular storm cycle… CM

Dec 10, 2018 – Inland NW Weather Discussion

Today we expect cloudy skies and lingering snow showers this morning, mostly light, becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon with just some flurries for 49N, Mt Spokane and Schweitzer, and continuing snow accumulations and cloudy skies for Silver Mountain and especially Lookout Pass into Missoula/ Kalispell, as a moderately strong and fast moving shortwave low pressure system exits the area, with a southwest flow aloft continuing.

On Tuesday we expect another storm to move in, but this one looks much stronger and loaded with moisture (over 1″ of precipitable water), with snow levels touching 5,000 feet during heaviest precip late Tuesday. Heavy snow totals are expected (1 to 2 feet across the mountains), a BIG powder day is expected to be announced Wednesday morning!

On Wednesday we expect lingering snowfall from 49N and Mt Spokane to Schweitzer in the morning, clearing pretty fast with some sunshine after noon, plus colder temperatures and strong winds, low wind chills so bundling up with layers is a good idea. For Silver Mountain and Lookout Pass, expect snow to continue through the day, and after 18″ or so at Lookout, expect an additional 2-4″ on a colder Wednesday. Great conditions are expected, but be prepared for wind and blowing snow as low pressure exits.

On Thursday we expect some sunshine under a high pressure ridge and milder temperatures, but mostly cloudy skies with some snow showers expected at times due to weak disturbances passing through overhead.

Friday we expect another shot of (this time) moderate to heavy snow (maybe 4-8″ across the region, 8″ for Lookout) from a fast moving and not as moist storm system, with snow falling through the day and overnight, and THEN some nice freshies on a mostly sunny Saturday!

WOW: LONGER RANGE (through the holidays):

Sunday and Monday we are expecting a BIG storm, with a subtropical moisture tap as this large-scale low pressure system, moving in out of a major trough over the Gulf of Alaska, carries in strong southwest wind flow and deep moisture from southwest of Tahoe right across into the region. Snow levels will likely hover near 4,000 feet, for some great, dense base-building snow. Following this, after a 1/2 day of reprieve, another significant looking system moves in, followed by another day of respite and another storm, right up until around the 23rd or so, setting up the Christmas and New Year holiday with amazing conditions! We do not hype weather, though this may sound like it, its just looking this good! These are systems coming from a longer fetch from across the Pacific, for some more moisture and powder day potential, currently hammering Niseko, Japan…

Toward the NEW YEAR and beyond… Around Christmas we do expect some sunshine mixed with COLDER air and lighter, powdery  snow at times… So we expect  great skiing and riding for the family. Around the New Year we expect another period of “busy” weather, with energy across the Pacific looking strong, coming off east Asia, so we do expect some of these storms to affect the western US, including the Inland Northwest. We put out a REALLY long range forecast back in September, and it pretty much materialized (http://snowforecast.com/inland-northwest). CM