WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday December 30, 2024 -

A partly-mostly sunny break, then daily near snow days Wed-the weekend

We see more tranquil weather, VERY cold, sunshine mixed with clouds today and Tuesday as the pattern is a bit unsettled, but the air mass is mostly dry. By Tuesday night we expect snow and air that is "cold enough", but not really cold. Temperatures rise at times Thursday and Friday as a southerly flow carries in increased moisture, gusty winds, and good snow potential. Snow days are expected almost daily through this weekend as large-scale low pressure approaches the Northwest US and moves in/ through.

LONGER RANGE.

Very cold air may drop south into the area around/ after January 5 due to a highly amplified N-S pressure pattern, with strong high-pressure ridging over Alaska, and low pressure over or south of Southern California, dragging very cold modified arctic air into the region, for single digits and colder sub-zero temperatures on the mountain free-air temps (to -5F at 10k feet), not "radiational cooling", so this could be when most will test out their layers as wind could be a part of this also. Otherwise, the pattern remains progressive and busy with storms, no "snow droughts" seen. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday December 26, 2024 -

HEAVY SNOW DAILY right through this weekend!

Lots of moisture, 1 system after another, STRONG dynamics including jet stream dynamics, cold air pushes, and deep snow, will transform the mountain now through the weekend. There will be a lot of wind at times with these strong and somewhat cold systems, for blowing and drifting of snow, also making it hard to measure snow even with the setup Bogus has (they are very conservative with snow estimates, and I say the totals are higher based on what I know with 35 years of professional weather observation and forecasting. The pattern continues very active, then tapers off with higher pressure ridging in next week.

LONGER RANGE.

It is looking like a mostly sunny New Year's Eve and Day, some snow the 2nd - 5th, then very cold air may drop south into the area around/ after January 5 due to a highly amplified N-S pressure pattern, with strong high-pressure ridging over Alaska, and low pressure over or south of Southern California, dragging very cold modified arctic air into the region, for single digits and colder sub-zero temperatures on the mountain free-air temps (to -5F at 10k feet), not "radiational cooling", so this could be when most will test out their layers as wind could be a part of this also. Otherwise, the pattern remains progressive and busy with storms, no "snow droughts" seen. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Sunday December 22, 2024 -

Frequent snow days ALL week with a busy weather pattern

A weak weather system is moving through tonight, clearing to more sunshine (than Sunday) on Monday, then frequent/ daily, and heavier snow is all this coming week, starting Tuesday as a strong low pressure system moves in with good moisture and a most times favorable (southwest) cross-mountain wind flow for good orographics, though we have base elevation snow-level issues to watch for with the initial relatively mild air, then a cold fron drops snow levels drastically Tuesday afternoon-evening through early Wednesday when snow ends, clearing to a mostly sunny Christmas Day! Another strong low pressure system moves in Wednesday evening-overnight, with a shot of good snow-day powder for Thursdays opening, continuing through afternoon mainly, then lighter, could be near a FOOT of SNOW Wednesday night + Thursday (this system has a "tail" or plume of moisture extending up from offshore of California and across Tahoe, usually boding well for Bogus Basin. There will be a lot of wind at times with these strong and somewhat cold systems, for blowing and drifting of snow, also making it hard to measure snow even with the setup Bogus has. The pattern continues very active late next week, weekend, and right into 2025 (see the "long range" below), with frequent, sometimes daily and sometimes heavy, snowfalls.

LONGER RANGE.

It is looking like a snowy New Year's Eve and Day, then as we move into early January 2025, very cold air may drop south into the area due to a highly amplified N-S pressure pattern, with strong high-pressure ridging over Alaska, and low pressure over or south of Southern California, dragging very cold modified arctic air into the region, for single digits and colder sub-zero temperatures on the mountain free-air temps (to -5F at 10k feet), not "radiational cooling", so this could be when most will test out their layers as wind could be a part of this also. Otherwise, the pattern remains progressive and busy with storms, no "snow droughts" seen. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Friday December 20, 2024 -

Some snow this weekend, and every day next week!

Today we see sunshine and mild temperatures under a ridge of high pressure. Saturday and Sunday begin our next series of snow storms, moving in late day Saturday, another later Sunday, not big storm systems with much support, but more frequent and better snowfalls are expected next week, starting Tuesday as a stronger system moves in, on later Tuesday through early Wednesday, then another later Wednesday (these times will vary, but 2 systems move in, looking strong enough for some snow day criteria snowfalls). The day after Christmas and that weekend stay busy with fresh snow each day, and plenty of cold air to keep the snow around, even "fluffy" as the pattern looks very active.

LONGER RANGE.

It is looking like a snowy New Year's Eve and Day, then as we move into early January 2025, very cold air may drop south into the area due to a highly amplified N-S pressure pattern, with strong high-pressure ridging over Alaska, and low pressure over or south of Southern California, dragging very cold modified arctic air into the region, for single digits and colder sub-zero temperatures on the mountain free-air temps (to -5F at 10k feet), not "radiational cooling", so this could be when most will test out their layers as wind could be a part of this also. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Tuesday December 17, 2024 -

The mountain has been transformed... with almost 3 FEET OF SNOW in the last 7 DAYS!

Daily big snowfalls have literally transformed the mountain, and 34" of snow in the last week is to thank for it! High pressure is ridging in with an unsettled northwest flow aloft right now, with some lingering snow showers at times mainly this morning, ending, then a shot of snow showers possible this evening and tonight as a wave of energy moves through, though not much excitement for this one. ON Wednesday we may see a dusting of snow as a system moves by mainly to the north, then Thursday and Friday we see sunshine and cool temperatures under a ridge of high pressure. Saturday and Sunday begins our next series of snow storms, moving in late day Saturday, through Sunday, not a big storm, but more snow is expected into that next week.

LONGER RANGE.

The Christmas and New Year Holiday season looks like frequent snow storms and plenty of cold air as the pattern becomes more active across the Northwest US. This should last well into the first 1/3rd of January. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday December 09, 2024 -

Not much happening, late week light snow, heavier snow for the weekend!

Today we are expecting clearing as some fog is in the area, but a high pressure ridge builds in today as low pressure exits to the south and hits Colorado/ Utah. Mostly sunny skies are expected through Wednesday. Wednesday night/ Thursday, and through Friday, some light snow moves in from a weak and mostly disorganized low-pressure system, so some accumulation is expected. By Saturday (maybe starting Friday night) and through Sunday, Monday, expect frequent snowfalls from a few "waves" of energy moving through, a stronger storm system. Next Tuesday more snow is expected.

LONGER RANGE.

High pressure ridging returns briefly after next Tuesday's snow, holding through mid-late next week, then more low pressure and snow storms move through the region for daily snowfalls between the 20th and Christmas Holiday season. This should prepare us nicely (with good snowfall) for the Christmas-New Year break. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Tuesday December 03, 2024 -

No real weather to speak of yet

High pressure ridging mostly dominates the Northwest US with mostly sunny skies expected daily, some clouds at times, mostly high clouds, and not much wind is expected. The air mass is mostly mostly above 32F (free air temperatures are 32+F at 10,000 feet until this Saturday evening and Sunday when some snow is expected) with temperature inversions mostly mixing out as we go (some base temperature inversions, below freezing at the base, are expected nightly). A low-pressure system moves in Saturday afternoon/ evening, through Sunday, and mostly aimed south, with light to moderate snowfall expected for Bogus Basin. We could be unsettled into the following Monday (9th).

LONGER RANGE.

We could be unsettled into the following Monday (9th), then high pressure ridging returns until about the 14-15th, when a larger-scale pattern change brings low pressure and snow storms back to the region, increasingly so through Dec 20. This should prepare us nicely (with good snowfall) for the Christmas-New Year break. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Friday November 29, 2024 -

No weather to speak of, yet

High pressure ridging dominates with mostly sunny skies expected daily, some clouds at times, mostly high clouds, and not much wind is expected. The air mass will gradually become mostly above 32F (free air temperatures will be 32+F at 10,000 feet by Sunday) with temperature inversions mostly mixing out as we go (some base temperature inversions, below freezing at the base, are expected nightly).

LONGER RANGE.

Expect dominant high pressure ridging across the west until December 13-15 when the pattern shifts back to "snow stormy" for the Northwest US and southwest Canada (there exists potential for some snow Dec 6-7th, so I will be watching). Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday November 25, 2024 -

Storm offshore delayed, moving in tonight and on a snowy Tuesday

Today we have a mostly middle and high cloud deck, which will see some isolated snow showers at times with approaching low pressure. Light snow moves in tonight... Expect a cold and snowy Tuesday with close to snow day snowfall (5 inches), most of this falling in the morning, into the early afternoon, lingering but ending in the evening, overnight. A mostly sunny Wednesday through the weekend is expected, with some good cold air for snowmaking efforts, and great snow preservation.

LONGER RANGE.

Expect 2 weeks or so of more dominant high pressure ridging across the west, and less potential "storminess", in fact if we see any storms they will ride up and over the ridge, brushing the area with light snow potential, but not seeing anything yet, just a mostly sunny first 1/3 to 1/2 of December (surely there will be a storm or 2 however so I will be watching). Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Friday November 22, 2024 -

High snow levels today, dropping this evening for snow base to top!

So far, snow levels are running between 7,500 and 8,000 feet based on nearby and onsite weather stations, with over 1.5" of water (snow and rain) since yesterday, the last 24 hours. Today the river of moisture is still moving across the region, but is visibly shrinking to the southwest, and colder air will be moving in this evening, for fast dropping snow levels (8,000 feet to start now through this afternoon, then to 6,000 feet between 6 and 9pm) and base to top snowfall into Saturday, looking heavy at times on a colder and a bit windy (wind chill) Saturday as good ingredients combine to force snow from the air. Opening day (Saturday) is still shaping up to be incredible and one to remember. If you like snow on the ground and sun in the sky, show up on Sunday as snow ends and the sun comes out, in pretty cold air but less wind. On a cold Monday another shot of snow moves through, could be decent accumulation in a decent looking storm, followed by a cold and lightly snowy at times Tuesday, but mixed with sun. This trend then produces a sunny mid-week, still cold for great snow preservation, and good snowmaking will be supported.

LONGER RANGE.

Expect 10-ish days of more dominant high pressure ridging across the west, and less potential "storminess", in fact if we see any storms they will ride up and over the ridge, brushing the area with light snow potential, but not seeing anything yet, just a mostly sunny first 1/3 to 1/2 of December (surely there will be a storm or 2 however so I will be watching). Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday November 18, 2024 -

STILL, A GREAT START to the season!

From the last forecast discussion (Tue the 12th); "Sunday/ Monday we get dumped on by more moderate+ snowfall, powder day criteria." <- And there it is, going on 7 inches of new snow since yesterday, as of 1230L. Tuesday is looking COLD, with the area between storms, then Tuesday night we see steady snow start up as a big storm moves in delivering heavy snow at times and slowly warming temperatures as this "Atmospheric River" sets up. Expect possibly over a foot of new snow between Tuesday night and Wednesday. Snow levels start to rise in this moisture which is being pulled from the subtropics. So late Wednesday and Thursday I expect some rain and snow levels above 7,000 feet to 8,000+ feet, as a ridge builds up from the south and diverts the storm track further north, along with the cold air needed for base to top snow. On Friday the river of moisture is shrinking and colder air will be moving in late Friday, for base to top snowfall into Saturday. Opening day is still shaping up to be incredible and one to remember. Check the long range discussion from October 1 (almost 1 and 1/2 months ago), where we predicted this early and good snowfall, plus colder air, to open the season.

LONGER RANGE.

Next Sunday and Monday another big storm rolls through, more snow, some heavy. It looks busy with storms and short 1 day or so breaks in-between, for the last days of Nov and first few of December. After about Dec 3, expect 10-ish days of more dominant high pressure and less potential "storminess". Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Tuesday November 12, 2024 -

A GREAT START to the season...

Low pressure is exiting after 3 inches more snow fell yesterday but especially last night, was coming down nicely (Monday). Today we are cold and cleared out, with clouds moving in tonight again to set up for a nice dump of snow on Wednesday, some initial snow level issues but quickly going to all snow base to top, and delivering a good amount of new snow and base building. More snow is expected Thursday though much of the energy misses Bogus Basin, then on Friday the low pressure system moves right across with increased snow potential. On a cold Saturday we are between storms, and Sunday/ Monday we get dumped on by more moderate+ snowfall, powder day criteria. Opening day is shaping up to be incredible and one to remember. Check the long range discussion from October 1 (almost 1 and 1/2 months ago), where we predicted this early and good snowfall, plus colder air, to open the season.

LONGER RANGE.

High pressure ridging builds in mid to late next week, and temperatures (daytime) warm back into the upper 30's and 40's, followed by a "just after opening" snowfall, will be watching. It is a La Nina year: Bogus Basin IS starting out with earlier and better natural snow coverage (we have been saying this Since October 1; check past discussions, and it is coming true now, love it), receiving frequent storms and cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday November 07, 2024 -

A GREAT START to the season...

Sunny and chilly, brief warming through Saturday, then cooling down each day. Sunday through Tuesday we look busy with Gulf of Alaska low pressure system. A weak system moves through Saturday night and out on Sunday, with the larger storm moving in Sunday night and Monday/ Tuesday (low exiting Tuesday). A nice shot of snow is expected, through with some early morning 7,000 foot snow levels Monday. Moisture looks plentiful as it usually is with these initially warmer systems, then colder air moves in with the moisture still present, for top to bottom snowfall at Bogus Basin Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. We could see about 6" of snow from this.

LONGER RANGE.

High pressure ridging builds in mid next week and temperatures (daytime) warm back into the upper 30's and 40's, then by next weekend (after the 15th) more snow moves in with another probably strong low pressure system. It is a La Nina year: Bogus Basin IS starting out with earlier and better natural snow coverage (we have been saying this for a while, check past discussions, and it is coming true now, love it), receiving frequent storms and cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Saturday November 02, 2024 -

MORE FRESH SNOW, looks like 4-5", (exactly what we forecast, which brings us to like 15-16" so far this season, most of it this past week, great for base-building)...

Low pressure continues to move through today, trough axis to the west through afternoon which should continue the off and on accumulating snow with a southwest flow of wind across the southern Idaho mountains/ Bogus Basin, but decreased moisture, and moderate-good upper-level dynamics, plus a good cold air influx (front) with NO snow level issues base to top. Our snowfall last night was a good 1:10 type dense snow, great for covering the early-season terrain. A chunk of the energy with today's system drops south across southern California/ Arizona today, with lighter snow showers for Bogus Basin but again still accumulating some extra depth. On Sunday we have an unsettled northwest wind flow across the mountains with more snow showers, light. Expect unsettled and cold/ chilly weather through the weekend. Monday and Tuesday, on track, we see a milder storm system and a coating of wetter snow (1:9/ 1:10 water equivalent), with windy conditions as well on Monday, then winds drop off but really cold air drops in on its way south (we do not see the strongest dynamics with this as bulk of energy drops through toward the south. After this expect a brief warm-up under high pressure ridging, but a busyness is expected, so more storms are likely to be frequent, and mainly after the 9th of November.

LONGER RANGE.

After the 9th of November, expect more Pacific storms to move in with snow potential, some strong, and this should last for 4-5 days before high pressure ridging builds in again. It is a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage (we have been saying this for a while, check past discussions, and it is coming true now, love it), receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Wednesday October 30, 2024 -

FRESH SNOW... MODERATE to HEAVY EARLY-SEASON SNOW THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL ACROSS THE WESTERN US

More low pressure, strong, is expected to move in for tonight through Saturday, sitting (centered) over Washington/ Oregon, with a southwest flowm of wind across the southern Idaho mountains/ Bogus Basin, good moisture, moderate dynamics, and good cold air with NO snow level issues base to top. A foot of snow (more up top)m is quite a realistic expectation for Bogus Basin tonight through Saturday, maybe more. It looks like a chunk of the energy drops south across southern California/ Arizona on Saturday,, with lighter snow showers for Bogus Basin. On Sunday we have an unsettled northwest wind flow across the mountains with more snow showers, light. Expect unsettled and cold/ chilly weather through the weekend. Monday and Tuesday we may be seeing a milder storm system and a coating of wetter snow, with windy conditions as well. After this expect a brief warm-up under high pressure ridging, but a busyness is expected, so more storms are likely to be frequent, and mainly after the 7th of November (but we will have to watch for some storms in between).

LONGER RANGE.

After the 7th of November, expect more Pacific storms to move in with snow potential, details forthcoming. It is a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage (we have been saying this for a while, check past discussions), receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday October 28, 2024 -

FRESH SNOW... AND FREQUENT EARLY-SEASON SNOW THIS WEEK (Today, Wednesday-Thursday/ Halloween snow, and Friday!), ALL ACROSS THE WESTERN US, ON TRACK

A Gulf of Alaska low-pressure system moves through, focusing energy to the southwest US today and Tuesday, with some clouds and snow today for Bogus Basin and southern Idaho after some snow on the mountain Sunday. This low-pressure system is pushing across the western US today and Tuesday with ski resort elevation snow. Clearing is expected late today and Tuesday for Bogus Basin as this low sweeps south. More low pressure, strong, is expected to move in for a Wednesday-Thursday/ Halloween snow storm for the western US, and accumulations at Bogus Basin, continuing through Friday, including base to top snow for Bogus Basin. Expect unsettled and cold/ chilly weather through the weekend, with some light snow showers at times, mostly isolated on a chilly Saturday. After this expect a brief warm-up under high pressure ridging, but a busyness is expected, so more storms are likely to be frequent mainly after the 7th of November.

LONGER RANGE.

After the 7th of November, expect more Pacific storms to move in with snow potential, details forthcoming. It is a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Friday October 25, 2024 -

2 BIG STORMS NEXT WEEK (Sunday-Monday, Wednesday-Thursday/ Halloween snow), ALL ACROSS THE WESTERN US, ON TRACK

Today continues the trend of mostly sunny skies, with milder temperatures, same for Saturday as low pressure approaches. On Sunday, a strong and cold Gulf of Alaska low-pressure system moves in with clouds and snow for base to top Bogus Basin and southern Idaho, beginning around afternoon, and continuing through a cold Monday, into a colder Tuesday. All told, over 1/2 foot of snow is possible to kick off the season. This low pushes all across the western US next Monday and Tuesday with ski resort elevation snow. More low pressure, strong, is expected to follow the early next week storm, a Halloween snow storm for the western US, next Wednesday through Friday, including base to top possibly significant snow for Bogus Basin. After this expect a brief warm-up under high pressure ridging, but a busyness is expected, so more storms are likely to be frequent.

LONGER RANGE.

After the first few days or so of November (tranquil, mostly sunny, mild, first few days of November for Bogus Basin), in early November stronger and colder low pressure is expected, with some MORE base to top snowfall on the radar. It is a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Tuesday October 22, 2024 -

2 BIG STORMS NEXT WEEK, ALL ACROSS THE WESTERN US

Today expect some low pressure and rain/ snow to the north, with some colder air filtering in on a becoming mostly sunny Tuesday. Late day Wednesday we get a shot of light snow base to top as low pressure moves through fast, clearing out on a chilly Thursday. Friday continues the trend of mostly sunny skies, with milder temperatures on Friday. This weekend expect warming and mostly sunny skies under high pressure ridging. A strong and cold Gulf of Alaska system moves in with clouds and snow for base to top Bogus Basin and southern Idaho, also all across the western US next Monday and Tuesday (ski resort elevation snow). More low pressure, strong, is expected to follow the early next week storm, a Halloween snow storm for the western US, next Thursday and Friday.

LONGER RANGE.

After the first few days or so of November (tranquil, mostly sunny, mild, first few days of November for Bogus Basin), in early November stronger and colder low pressure is expected, with some MORE base to top snowfall on the radar. It is a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Sunday October 20, 2024 -

We have a brief ridge of high pressure across the area for sunny and warming weather today. Monday through Wednesday expect some low pressure and rain/ snow to the north, with some colder air filtering in, especially on a chilly but mostly sunny Tuesday. We warm up Wed-Thu under high pressure ridging, and with approaching low pressure, winds on Thursday, then cooler and more clouds on Friday. The trend is for clouds and rain/ snow Sunday and Monday, and more low pressure to follow, more frequently in early November.

LONGER RANGE.

In early November stronger and colder low pressure is expected, with some base to top snowfall on the radar. It is a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday October 17, 2024 -

We are on track to see snow fall with Cold temperatures today (16-18F at 10,000 feet), as we have some strong dynamics, good/ favorable upper-level winds, and enough moisture for some light accumulations base to top at Bogus Basin. Friday looks chilly and still a good day to test out the snow making equipment, with low wet-bulb temperatures in the chilly air. Friday through Saturday low pressure dips south and out of the area, with a mini ridge of high pressure across the area for sunny and warming weather on Saturday into Sunday. Monday through Wednesday expect mostly sunshine and milder temperatures, some low pressure and rain/ snow to the north, but no cold fronts ar "weather" for our region yet.

LONGER RANGE.

More low pressure and showers (more snow potential this time) move in Wednesday through Friday of next week (23-25 Oct). Milder air and more sunshine are possible after this, and may hang on for a few days or so (the warm-up), then the 31st and into early November, stronger and colder low pressure with some base to top snowfall is on the radar. It is looking like a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday October 14, 2024 -

Early week we have approaching strong and unseasonably cold low pressure but with mild and sunny weather out ahead of this. On Wednesday I am expecting our first real top to bottom snowfall for Bogus Basin and an "official" kick-off to a more wintry weather pattern overall. Snow starts top to bottom by Wednesday night after some mostly rain showers on Wednesday, then snow mainly through a COLD Thursday (14F at 10,000 feet), as we have some strong dynamics, good/ favorable upper-level winds, and enough moisture for accumulations base to top. Friday looks like a Great day to test out the snow making equipment, with low wet-bulb temperatures in the cold, mostly sub-freezing base-to-top air. Friday through Saturday low pressure dips south and out of the area, with a mini ridge of high pressure across the area for sunny and chilly, but warming weather on Saturday into Sunday.

LONGER RANGE.

Sunday and Monday the low that dropped south (over southern California, may be even snow for Big Bear and other SoCal mountain areas) moves back to the north and helps to pave the way for another low pressure system hitting the Northwest US Sunday night and Monday (21st). After next Monday we have a brief break, then more low pressure and showers (more snow potential this time) move in mid to late next week (23-25 Oct). Milder air and more sunshine are possible after this, and may hang on for a few days or so (the warm-up). It is looking like a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday October 10, 2024 -

Some clouds are expected to stream across the area at times today and Friday, with temperatures near to above average, and not a lot of wind expected. A low pressure area moves in nearby Saturday and Sunday, but we are only expecting a few cloud at times from this and mainly on Saturday. Early next week we have approaching stronger low pressure, and by next Wednesday we could see our first real top to bottom snowfall for Bogus Basin.

LONGER RANGE.

Next Wednesday through Friday looks cold and a bit wintry, with some snow expected, and mostly subfreezing temperatures from base to top. This should be a good time to test out and prep the snow guns. It is looking like a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Sunday October 06, 2024 -

Pretty much benign and warm through this coming week, with some change coming Thursday and Friday, and into the weekend, as larger scale low pressure moves into the northwest US, causing some showers for Bogus Basin.

LONGER RANGE.

High pressure will build in after the weekend of the 10th through the 13th, with warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies. That tranquil pattern should not hold very long, maybe 3 to 5 days, and then more low pressure will move in, this time we will likely see our first snowfall. It is looking like a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Tuesday October 01, 2024 -

Today through Thursday we have approaching low pressure (today), windy and cooler as low pressure moves by to the north (Wednesday), and cooler on Thursday (cold front), with windy and dry conditions Wednesday. Friday through the weekend high pressure ridging builds in, with warmer than average temperatures and less wind.

LONGER RANGE.

More frequent and stronger low pressure with better chances for snow on the mountain start moving through 10-15 October. It is looking like a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Saturday September 28, 2024 -

A weakening high pressure ridge causes a warm up (mostly warmer south wind flow) through today, then a low pressure system sends a dry trough through the area on Sunday with a few clouds and cooling of temperatures, dry air, as the main system stays to the north. Monday looks MUCH cooler and fall-like, mostly sunny, post cold front. Tuesday through Thursday we have a similar thing happen, approaching low pressure (Tuesday), windy and cooler as low pressure moves by to the north (Wednesday), and cooler next Thursday (cold front). It looks to remain dry though.

LONGER RANGE.

On track... Around the 5th, next weekend, we may see a top to bottom snowfall from a cold Gulf of Alaska low pressure system, as these are starting to look colder/ stronger. Brief high pressure, sunny skies, warming builds in after, then more frequent and stronger low pressure with better chances for snow on the mountain start moving through 10-15 October. It is looking like a La Nina year. More on that coming. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday September 23, 2024 -

Sunny and warmer weather is expected today through Wednesday, with upper-70's (90's in Boise) at the base of Bogus Basin on Wednesday under stronger high pressure ridging. A low pressure system moves in with potential isolated showers Wednesday night, but it is looking dry. Much cooler temperatures are expected Thursday post cold front. Friday and Saturday another high pressure ridge causes a warm up through Saturday, then a stronger low pressure system moves through on Sunday with showers and cooler weather.

LONGER RANGE.

High pressure ridging and clearing builds in the last day of September, first of October, with sunshine and mild temperatures. As usual in the fall, expect more alternating periods of chilly rain, higher mountain snow, and cloudiness, then mostly sunny (between storms), and progressively cooler temperatures overall. After the 5th or so, we may see a top to bottom snowfall from a cold Gulf of Alaska low pressure system, as these are starting to look colder/ stronger. It is looking like a La Nina year. More on that coming. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday September 19, 2024 -

Today we warm up a bit with mostly sunny skies, as low pressure moves by too far from the region to cause any "weather". Friday and this weekend still looks great with mild and a bit windy weather expected Friday as dry low pressure moves through to the north, and a weak cold front filters cooler air in for a cooler Saturday, still a great time for a hike or ride. Sunday looks mostly sunny and warmer with an approaching low pressure system. Late Sunday skies cloud up, and some isolated showers are possible then through overnight, under a mostly weak low pressure system moving in from the west. Early next week looks sunny and warmer under high pressure ridging. Mid week next week a low pressure system moves in with potential showers.

LONGER RANGE.

We will not likely see a shot of snow for the base to top with the 25 Sep system. High pressure ridging and clearing builds in afterward (last couple of day of Sep, early October) for a bit, with sunshine and mild temperatures. As usual in the fall, expect more alternating periods of chilly rain, higher mountain snow, and cloudiness, then mostly sunny (between storms), and progressively cooler temperatures overall. It is looking like a La Nina year. More on that coming. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday September 16, 2024 -

Today and Tuesday we see low-pressure moving through with showers expected (Tuesday looks more active with showers), no snow on the mountain, and snow levels dropping to near 9,000 feet mainly on Tuesday as temperatures remain in the 40's on the mountain all day, in a chilly rain. Wednesday and Thursday we warm up to near 60F with mostly sunny skies, as low pressure moves by too far from the region to cause much "weather". This weekend looks amazing with dry and warm weather expected, great time for a hike or ride!

LONGER RANGE.

Gulf of Alaska low pressure is expected to move in around the 25th of September (mid next week), with more alternating periods of chilly rain, higher mountain snow, and cloudiness, and mostly sunny (between storms). We may still see a shot of snow for the base to top with this 25 Sep system. High pressure ridging and clearing builds in afterward (last couple of day of Sep, early October) for a bit, with sunshine and mild temperatures. It looks like what we would call "summer" (with heat waves) is over however.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday September 12, 2024 -

As expected on Monday, there is "some snow in the 8,000 to 8,500 foot range Thursday as the cold core (near 26f at 10,000 feet) of the low passes through". A check of weather sensors between 8,100 and 9,000-ish feet indicate snowfall for these areas as the cold core of a Gulf of Alaska low-pressure system moves through central Idaho, with lowest snow levels there (just to the north of Bogus Basin). Today, expect clouds and cold rain through this early afternoon, then clearing out as low pressure starts to move off to the east. Temperatures remain in the 30's and 40's across the mountain. Friday and Saturday we see mostly sunny skies and more low pressure approaching for Sunday and next Monday, with showers expected, no snow on the mountain, but snow levels dropping to near 8,000 feet on Tuesday, in a chilly rain.

LONGER RANGE.

Gulf of Alaska low pressure is the most dominant feature the rest of next week and through the 24th/ 25th of September, with more alternating periods of chilly rain, higher mountain snow, and cloudiness, and mostly sunny (between storms). We may still see a shot of snow for the base to top this month. High pressure ridging and clearing builds in afterward for a bit, with sunshine and mild temperatures. It looks like summer may be over.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday September 09, 2024 -

Today we see another warm up into the mid-upper 70's as a low pressure system advances on the area. Tuesday looks a bit cooler. The incoming system looks fairly cold and with some moisture, for fall-like weather potential Wednesday but especially on Thursday, and we even expect some snow in the 8,000 to 8,500 foot range Thursday as the cold core (near 26f at 10,000 feet) of the low passes through. Friday and Saturday we see mostly sunny skies and more low pressure approaching for Sunday and next Monday, with showers expected, no snow (check the longer range outlook though...).

LONGER RANGE.

From the last forecast; "...around the 18th - 20th of September there are signs of a change-over to low pressure and cooler, windy weather, with some fall showers." <-- This is on track, as cold Gulf of Alaska low pressure, looking COLD (near 19-20f at 10,000 feet, for potential snow at Bogus Basin), moves through. This may be the first storm of the season to drop snow over most of the mountain. It looks like summer may be over for September, will be watching.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Friday September 06, 2024 -

Today is a warm transition to clouds and some showers, thunderstorms mainly Saturday night through Sunday morning as a not very significant low-pressure system moves in and across the area with enough energy and moisture to cause this. On Monday we warm up into the upper 70's as a low pressure system advances on the area. This one looks colder and with more moisture, for a fall-like weather potential next Wednesday and Thursday, but first, showers and maybe a thunderstorm move in on a cooler Tuesday. The forecast is dependent upon a low pressure system crossing the area Wednesday and Thursday, with some snow in the 8,500+ foot range.

LONGER RANGE.

We continue to alternate between highs in the 60's and 70's with sunny skies (high pressure), to showers and clouds with some low pressure, then around the 18th - 20th of September there are signs of a change-over to low pressure and cooler, windy weather, with some fall showers.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday September 02, 2024 -

Today moisture increases along with instability due to incoming low-pressure, for showers and thunderstorms any time morning through overnight (mostly late afternoon-evening through), plus noticeable cooling. on Tuesday the low-pressure system moves east and away, not as much of a "direct hit" as was expected, with cooler temperatures and departing shower potential (morning, isolated) as it is mostly to the north and moving away. By Wednesday and Thursday we have building high pressure again, for sunny skies and pleasant cool and dry weather to start. Friday we see a transition to clouds and some showers this weekend as a not very significant low-pressure system moves in and across the area.

LONGER RANGE.

Overall stronger high pressure ridging alternates with low pressure, mostly dry conditions, past mid September. Around the 18th - 20th of September there are signs of a change-over to low pressure and cooler, windy weather, with some fall showers.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Friday August 30, 2024 -

High pressure ridging builds in this weekend into Sunday, then on Sunday we see low 80's on the mountain before some thunderstorms develop as moisture is pulled in by an approaching low pressure system. On Monday moisture increases along with instability due to the incoming low, for showers and thunderstorms any time morning through overnight, plus noticeable cooling. Next Tuesday the low-pressure system moves right across the area, with much cooler temperatures and increased shower potential. This could be one that drenches the soil and trees / foliage nicely, helping with any fire activity in the region. By next Wednesday and Thursday we have building high pressure again, for sunny skies and pleasant cool and dry weather to start.

LONGER RANGE.

Overall stronger high pressure ridging is expected over the Northwest US, causing some heat waves, increased thunderstorms, and warmer than average temperatures later next week and onward past mid September, though around the 15th - 20th of September there are signs of a change-over to low pressure and cooler, windy weather, with some fall showers.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday August 26, 2024 -

Warmer today and into Tuesday with strong low pressure moving in up north. This low is unusually cold (23F at 10,000 feet at the core of the low), and SNOW is expected down to 6,000 feet in the Selkirk Mountains of North Idaho, and lower elevations (resort elevations in BC and maybe at Schweitzer Mountain north Idaho) late Tuesday-Wednesday, with wind and isolated showers for Bogus Basin, and much cooler temperatures on Wednesday. .

Thursday through the weekend expect less wind, plenty of sun, and a great time to get out and hit the trails as temperatures warm up.

LONGER RANGE.

The first week of September (next week) expect some subtropical moisture to be pulled into the region for PM thunderstorms/ showers in the area. Temperatures look seasonal to above average. We will have to watch for some tropical moisture moving up into the southwest deserts and being funneled into Bogus Basin and the region as we move into September especially (increased tropical storms/ hurricanes the culprit), otherwise we may see strong high pressure over the Northwest US with a heat wave developing next week and onward.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday August 22, 2024 -

Somewhat windy conditions today, warmer, dry, with approaching low pressure... (on track from the longer range forecast)- FRIDAY and SATURDAY strong Gulf of Alaska low pressure with 24-26F 10,000 foot temperatures at its core (in the 30's for the upper mountain at Bogus Basin) crosses southwest Idaho and causes some showers and maybe a thunderstorm for Bogus Basin Friday and Saturday, plus some snow above 8,000 feet on Saturday across Idaho and western Montana.

Low pressure exits on a fall-feeling Sunday, then warmer and dry Monday and Tuesday. We may see some wind and cooling toward mid next week with a potentially cold low pressure system dropping in out of a drier northwest Canada.

LONGER RANGE.

It looks like high pressure ridging builds in across the area with warming temperatures Sunday (Aug 25) and moving forward, with some low pressure/ wind/ cooling/ chance for showers breaks every 3-7 days mainly in early September. We will have to watch for some tropical moisture moving up into the southwest deserts and being funneled into Bogus Basin and the region as we move into September especially (increased tropical storms/ hurricanes the culprit).