MOST RECENT DISCUSSION
Tuesday September 19, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Strong low pressure is dropping into eastern Washington this AM, and this low, plus associated cold air and moisture, will move in and linger across the inland Northwest US, centered just west of Bogus Basin, with some "first snows" of the season expected down to between near 6,000 and 8,000 feet (6,000 to 8,000 mainly at Bogus Basin with -3 to -7c/ 27f to 19f, 10,000 foot temperatures overhead) across the Northwest US and especially northern Rocky Mountains, for the first higher-mountain snowfall of the season, could be 6 inches or more of snow for some areas between Wednesday night and Friday, as the low exits Friday. Saturday starts out with lingering possible snow showers, rain too, then mostly sunny most of Saturday and through Sunday, with another low pressure system bearing down on the area.

LONGER RANGE:
Low pressure will be approaching next Monday (Sep 25th), but high pressure ridging and a warm-up back into the 70's is possible for Bogus Basin the following last week of September (next week), then strong low pressure may then move in with some colder temperatures and snows to the resorts by Sep 30 into early October.

SEASON OUTLOOK - We will still likely see "heat waves" into possibly mid October, mixed in with periods of low pressure, strong winds, and rain-snow as Pacific storms affect the Northwest US. The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Thursday September 14, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Today through Saturday expect high pressure ridging to build in across the region, with some really nice 70+F temperatures (peaking to near near 80F for Bogus Basin) expected under mostly sunny skies. By Sunday and Monday expect increasing winds as strong low pressure prepares to move in and linger across the inland Northwest US with some "first snows" of the season expected down to between 6,000 and 8,000 feet (6,200 to 7,800 at Bogus Basin with -3 to -7c/ 27f to 19f, 10,000 foot temperatures overhead) across the Northwest US and especially northern Rocky Mountains, for the first higher-mountain snowfall of the season, could be 6 inches or more of snow for some areas.

LONGER RANGE:
Next Tuesday and mainly Wednesday-Friday (21-23 Sep) expect some higher mountain snow, down to between 6,000 and 8,000 feet, as GOA (Gulf of Alaska) low pressure affects Idaho, WA, OR, MT mountain areas of the Northwest US with soil cooling showers, rains and some snow, colder air, including the northwest Montana and western Wyoming areas, through next weekend (24-25 Sep). High pressure ridging and a warm-up back into the 70's is likely for Bogus Basin the following last week of September.

SEASON OUTLOOK - We will likely see "heat waves" into early and through mid October, mixed in with periods of strong winds and some rain as Pacific storms affect the Northwest US. The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Tuesday September 12, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Weak-ish low pressure moves across the northwest as a mostly dry trough today and Wednesday, with isolated showers across the far northern Rocky Mountains and west-slope Cascades, dry and breezy for at Bogus Basin. Thursday through Saturday expect high pressure ridging to build in across the region, with some really nice 70+F temperatures (peaking to near near 80F for Bogus Basin) expected under mostly sunny skies. By Sunday and Monday expect increasing winds as strong low pressure prepares to move in and linger across the inland Northwest US with some snow expected to 8,000 feet, for the first higher-mountain dusting of the season.

LONGER RANGE:
Next Tuesday and mainly Wednesday-Friday (21-23 Sep) expect some higher mountain snow, maybe around/ above 8,000 feet, as GOA (Gulf of Alaska) low pressure affects Idaho, WA, OR, MT mountain areas of the Northwest US with soil cooling showers, rains and some snow, colder air, including the northwest Montana and western Wyoming areas, through next weekend (24-25 Sep). High pressure ridging and a warm-up back into the 70's is likely for Bogus Basin the following last week of September.

SEASON OUTLOOK - We will likely see "heat waves" into early and through mid October, mixed in with periods of strong winds and some rain as Pacific storms affect the Northwest US. The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Wednesday September 06, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Weak-ish low pressure moves across the northwest as a mostly dry trough today, with some showers mainly to the north, and a slight chance for a thunderstorm and shower at Bogus Basin. A similar pattern is expected on Thursday with another low passing by, then high pressure ridging builds in across the northwest US a bit for the weekend and into early next week, with some really nice 70+F temperatures expected under mostly sunny skies.

LONGER RANGE:
By/ after the 14th (mid to late next week), we start to see the higher mountains above 8,000 feet get hit with some snow as GOA low pressure looks stronger as is usual, and this affects some mountain areas of the Northwest US with soil cooling showers, rains and some snow, colder air, mostly for the northwest Montana and western Wyoming areas.

SEASON OUTLOOK - We will likely see "heat waves" into early and through mid October, mixed in with periods of strong winds and some rain as Pacific storms affect the Northwest US. The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Thursday August 31, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Today a low pressure system drops into the region (mainly Oregon and Washington), causing a slight shot at showers and thunderstorms late today, even fall-like temperatures and rains, thunderstorms likely this weekend from this strong Gulf of Alaska low pressure system, that is expected to linger into Monday, drawing in monsoonal moisture from the southwest US desert initially, and combining with cold air overhead from the cold low for some snow even, mainly above 9,500 feet. More good soaking rains are expected, helping to erase fire threats. Expect mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures, great mountain biking weather, all next week and weekend (should be rain-free) after Monday.

LONGER RANGE:
Between the 10th and 14th expect mostly dry weather, mild temperatures. After the 14th, we should start to see the higher mountains above 8,000 feet get hit with some snow as GOA low pressure looks stronger as is usual, and this affects the mountain with soil cooling showers, rains and colder air.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Monday August 28, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Today looks dry and warm for Bogus Basin in the low 80s, then a shot at some thunderstorms and showers moves in for Tuesday (on track from the last discussion from last Wednesday) as Gul-of-Alaska origin low pressure moves across WA, OR, ID, channeling some good energy and moisture from the south into the region. Windy conditions develop as well. Wednesday looks cooler and breezy, dry as low pressure exits. On Thursday another low pressure system drops into the region, causing a better shot at showers and thunderstorms, even fall-like temperatures from this stronger Gulf of Alaska low pressure system, that is expected to linger right through the weekend, drawing in monsoonal moisture from the southwest US desert, and combining with cold air overhead from the cold low. More good soaking rains are possible, but likely less than what we saw from the recent remnants of Hurricane Hilary.

LONGER RANGE:
Around, after September 5th, look for more wind and cooling, possible rain, as the Gulf of Alaska starts sending more low pressure, and high pressure ridging is not as dominant.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Wednesday August 23, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Today looks mostly sunny and drier with high pressure ridging in from the southeast. This trend continues on a warmer Thursday, with some very isolated PM thunderstorms possible, not much expected though. On Friday and Saturday, recycled moisture from the southwest deserts (former Tropical Storm Harold) increases into the area and we could get some decent showers at Bogus Basin and the rest of southern Idaho. Cooling of temperatures is expected. Sunday into Monday look dry, then another shot at some thunderstorms and showers later Monday and maybe into Tuesday as low pressure moving into WA, OR may channel some energy and moisture into the region.

LONGER RANGE:
Back and forth between thunderstorms and showers with 80-ish temperatures (high pressure ridging), to windy and dry, mild, with low pressure from the Gulf starting to be more active. Around, after September 5th, look for more wind and cooling, possible rain, as the Gulf of Alaska starts sending more low pressure, and high pressure ridging is not as dominant.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Wednesday August 16, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Hot 90f today and a bit cooler on Thursday with some clouds, then some recycled moisture, limited, from the desert southwest, moves in later Thursday and through Friday, with some thunderstorms and showers developing. By the weekend, Sunday, deep subtropical moisture from a rare tropical storm clipping northern Baja California and sending heavy rains into southern California and Arizona, will funnel northward and into the region, for some good and soaking rains, some thunderstorms, likely Sunday and Monday, winding down on Tuesday, Much cooler temperatures with highs dropping to the 60's, are expected on Monday, along with increased winds.

LONGER RANGE:
Next Wednesday and Thursday (23-24 Aug) expect a chance for more significant showers with more moisture moving from out of the southwest US deserts, though more limited in quantity, but should be enough for significant showers and thunderstorms. After this expect some cooling and west winds as Gulf Of Alaska (GOA) low pressure sends some energy into the region.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Tuesday August 08, 2023 - Weather Discussion

There was some nice soaking rains yesterday and the day before across southern Idaho, with unusually early Gulf of Alaska low pressure interaction, which kicked off some strong thunderstorms the last 2 days Sunday and Monday. Temperatures barely reached the mid-60s for highs yesterday at Bogus Basin, and are in the mid 40s this morning, a bit chilly. As discussed in the longer range, I am expecting an early and colder than usual winter, starting with an early and colder than usual fall, which even later this month will start showing itself in the form of some higher mountain snows from Gulf of Alaska systems moving through the Northwest US. For now, we warm up as high pressure builds back in, and the air dries out. There will be some west breezes (under 20mph) and winds (over 20mph) this week as some lower pressure skirts the area, otherwise not much wind.

LONGER RANGE:
Expect a dominant and more stationary high pressure ridge, and heat wave, building in between the 11th and 17th of August, highs in the 80s for Bogus Basin and 100F or so for Boise. After the 18th expect some cooling and west winds as Gulf Of Alaska (GOA) low pressure sends some energy.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this as of August 4). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Friday August 04, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Monsoonal moisture continues across the area and upper-level weather disturbances are also moving overhead, sitting and circulating through Saturday, then passing through on the way east on Sunday, causing more showers across the area to soak the trees and grass, soil, with great fire-fuel reducing water. Temperatures will be lower than average. Drying and warming are expected after Sunday and into next week.

LONGER RANGE:
It looks like more low pressure may move across the Pacific Northwest, between higher pressure ridging, but no dominant high pressure and No heat waves are seen through the 10th/ 11th. This may be followed by a dominant and more stationary high pressure ridge, and heat wave, building in between the 11th and 15th of August.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August (still thinking this as of August 4). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Sunday July 30, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Low to mid 80's, dry, some clouds at times today through Tuesday, though on Tuesday some moisture seeps in from the desert southwest and allows for some isolated thunderstorms mainly over the peaks by Tuesday afternoon, evening. It looks like a good soaking is in store Wednesday and Thursday of this coming week as that moisture increases and an upper-level weather disturbance moves in overhead, possibly sitting and circulating through Friday and even Saturday, causing more showers across the area to soak the trees and grass, soil, with great fire-fuel reducing water. Temperatures drop significantly, with highs in the 60's by this coming Thursday and Friday.

LONGER RANGE:
It looks like T-storms and shower chances may hang on through Friday and Saturday with continued cooler-than-average temperatures, then drying out and warming up this coming first weekend of August, into the following week. It looks like more low pressure may move across the Pacific Northwest, between higher pressure ridging, but no dominant high pressure and No heat waves are seen through the 10th/ 11th. This may be followed by a dominant and more stationary high pressure ridge, and heat wave, building in between the 11th and 15th of August.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early as per the last weather discussion, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making), and we get hints of this even later August. Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly
If you are a representative of an Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, or Montana ski resort, and want some high quality and accurate forecasts, do message me through this website, or email at Send Email


OLDER DISCUSSION
Tuesday July 25, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Tuesday through the rest of this week, and into early next week, look mostly dry and sunny, not too warm though, and with more west breezes (under 20mph) and winds than usual, as low pressure affects the Pacific Northwest and moves across north Idaho/ Montana at times.

LONGER RANGE:
Hotter the first week of August as high pressure ridging shifts north and becomes 600dm at the center, very strong, though moisture may slip in from the south at times as this very strong high pressure ridge aloft holds across the western US into August. The main story will be hot temperatures especially in Boise, but some mainly isolated (sometimes increased from this, mid next week and late next week, 02 August onward, we may see some good showers for Bogus Basin and the surrounding mountains to decrease fire fuel), slight shots at thunderstorms are expected at times.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season, starting off early as well, as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly


OLDER DISCUSSION
Sunday July 23, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Thunderstorms are affecting the southern California deserts, and this moisture is entrained in the wind flow to reach Bogus Basin today and Monday, when I expect some thunderstorms and showers to affect the area, albeit isolated. Wind gusts to 45mph are possible in or near any thunderstorm. Tuesday through the rest of the week look mostly dry and sunny, not too warm though, and with more west winds than usual, as low pressure affects the Pacific Northwest and moves across north Idaho/ Montana at times.

LONGER RANGE:
Hotter the first week of August as high pressure ridging shifts north and becomes 600dm at the center, very strong, though moisture may slip in from the south at times as this very strong high pressure ridge aloft holds across the western US into August. The main story will be hot temperatures especially in Boise, but some mainly isolated, slight shots at thunderstorms are expected at times.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. This is most valuable and I am going to post my thoughts on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly


OLDER DISCUSSION
Tuesday July 18, 2023 - Weather Discussion

Mostly sunny and dry, warmer weather is expected through Friday and Saturday, though we see some cloud build-ups (pre-thunderstorm type) Wednesday and Saturday afternoons. The Wednesday semi-cloudiness is due to low pressure offshore bumping up the high pressure ridge and pulling some remnant moisture north into the area, then on Saturday it is due to a similar pattern, but now more moisture will have been entrained into the flow from the southwest deserts, for a chance for T-storms and showers by Sunday and Monday (23-24 Jul).

LONGER RANGE:
Hot and mostly dry later next week, with some moisture slipping in from the south as very strong high pressure ridging aloft builds across the western US. The main story will be hot temperatures especially in Boise, but some mainly isolated, slight shots at thunderstorms are expected for late July and into early August, though early August is looking drier due to a west wind flow off the Pacific, as low-pressure moves across Washington and north Idaho, Montana.

SEASON OUTLOOK - The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? I will start to give my take on it as we get closer, but honestly, the range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down to intuition. This is most valuable and I am going to post my thoughts on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly