Fri, August 31st, 2018 (begun this article)
Wednesday September 19, 2018 (I finally finished it!)

MODOKI EL NINO = bad, REGULAR EL NINO = not as bad, WEAK EL NINO to ENSO Neutral = possibly good! There are many possibilities with the last one (the one we think is coming) but we will nail it down for you! 

WA/ ID/ MT, and Inland Empire (Spokane-Coeur d'Alene)
FALL and WINTER SEASON FORECAST FROM SNOWFORECAST.COM!

...WHAT IS THE FORECAST?...
OCTOBER - (Above average snowfall and below average temperatures) Early season cold and October snows for the ski resorts, though best snow and coldest temperatures will be to the east of the divide and Wyoming/ southwest Montana. There will be enough cold to test out any snowmaking equipment, and the early snows will linger for some hours and even days to help cool the soil for some good base building when we move into November...
NOVEMBER - (Above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures) Continued good early season snow and lower than usual snow levels with early first measurable  snows in the Inland Empire of Spokane-CDA, likely in early November. We expect some Thanksgiving opening days...
DECEMBER - (Near to above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures through mid December, then dropping off to below average snowfall and near average temperatures) Good snowfall events through mid December and near to below average temperatures, then incoming storms start shifting to the south on a different storm  track, with lighter snows across the region as we move into the holidays.
JANUARY ONWARD, MORE COMING SOON - ? Stay tuned, but a brief synopsis: Dry for most of January with above average temperatures. Storms return in February with near to a bit below average snowfall (could still be good), then March through the rest of the season looks near to warmer than average in temperature, with below average snows, though April could produce some big storms and powder days to pass through the region, building the late season snowpack. More details are coming, and I will be naming resorts and forecasting long range snow totals. CM

...WHAT ARE THE FACTORS AND OPINIONS?...
Here are my August 31 observations: An El Nino that "wants" to happen, but meager warming to even some cooling in the key Nino regions (recent), and a mostly neutral status (currently) is not showing much hope for any El Nino pattern that may be classified as moderate or strong. In fact, I will say that we will not see a moderate or strong El Nino SST pattern this 2018-2019 season, and the NOAA forecasted weak El Nino is looking like a "maybe".
And, my September 15 observations: Latest guidance indicates that the El Nino SST anomaly will be weak, at best, in my opinion. Here is why: Cooler eastern Pacific waters (Nino 3.4 region)/ Subsurface waters heat content (180-100W Lat) has decreased/ and the current pattern is showing mostly a general cooling and not warming overall, though in the last 7 days, eastern Pacific surface waters off the coast of Ecuador (means "Equator") have warmed . Its mid September and this El Nino event should be a bit more evident. Its not. Even NOAA has backed off a bit with a 65% chance of El Nino formation, instead of the 70% they had called for early on in the summer when this anomaly looked more likely. For them to back off a bit like that indicates definite lost confidence, and this is not surprising, as I lost confidence in it occurring myself, back in July. Things work a bit slower in these large organizations, while us "loose cannons" (whatever in the hell that means) can blast off at will. Haha.

*An El Nino is still favored according to the above Climate Prediction Center chart*

*We have seen some areas of cooling in the Nino 1+2 and 3 regions, as this El Nino struggles to form. This is indicating cooling in the subsurface waters, which is a factor that is looked at for potential SST's*

*As of Sep 12, there is some warming going on again in the referenced "Nino 3" region, so overall there is a positive SST anomaly, but mostly less than +.5 (in yellow on the above chart), which is the threshold that needs to be met for 3 consecutive months before an actual El Nino pattern is recognized. For now we are in an "ENSO neutral" status.

SOLAR MINIMUM: In terms of sunspot activity, there is currently almost none, or even "none", zero, zilch, nada, many days. Decreased or zero sunspot activity also affects our weather patterns. The chart below shows how we are in a solar "grand minimum" right now:


Side note, look at the last minimum, in 07-08-09', when  the Inland Northwest had the most snow EVER recorded, back to back years, one with 170+ inches of snow in Coeur d'Alene, ID.

Also, we have seen some recent serious weather extremes this Summer of 2018, and have no reason to believe that we will not see similar extremes this fall and winter in North America:

From extreme heat in Europe, notably northern Europe:



To extreme snow and cold in August:

 NOAA: So to reiterate, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was forecasting a 60% likelihood for formation of an El Nino SST pattern this fall, and a 70% chance for the winter, 2018-2019, while now those forecasts are down to 50-55% and 65-70%, respectively. Large organizations like NOAA are not going to go backward on the forecast (decreased % chance), like this without very good reason, like, "its not happening like we thought it would guys"...

SNOWFORECAST.COM: At this point, a "weak" El Nino SST anomaly is the forecast from NOAA. I have believed since June that this would be a weak El Nino pattern that sets up, based on the afore-mentioned trend, but am now wondering if this El Nino will even show up at all. For those who desire to see some at least average rain and snowfall this winter, a weak El Nino or no El Nino may be best. If an El Nino, weak, does form, it is looking more likely to be the Modoki version, which on average, sucks (dry) all across the western US. Thankfully, as a weak factor (there are other factors), a weak El Nino of any kind will have a "weaker" influence on the weather patterns we see this fall and winter, THANKFULLY. We are also looking (currently) at a weakly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more of a long term state of ocean water temps), which will not help in the El Nino department. Neutral to "very weak El Nino" is what we are forecasting as we move into fall and maybe through the winter, at best +.5 which is barely classified as an El Nino. As well, with the Grand Solar Minimum, expect the unexpected, and so far, that has proven true in many parts of the world. How will all of these factors; Weak El Nino, or even "ENSO Neutral" SST anomaly, neutral PDO, GSM (solar), and my own intuition, affect the Northwest US and Western Canada forecast? Just scroll back to the top to find out!

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

Some References:
COLD AND SNOW:  https://www.theweek.info/index.php?newsid=3760 (Salzburg, over 1 foot of snow in August!)

 

HEAT:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/17/scorching-scandinavia-record-breaking-heat-hits-norway-finland-and-sweden (90+ degrees in Norway, all time record high temps!)

Great resource for current SST’s and anomalies:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

International Research Institute:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Latest ENSO Discussion:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php

Space Weather ("Solar Minimum"):
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

NCEP model forecast SST anomalies (1 model forecasting La Nina):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas2.html

The ONE outlier model forecasting La Nina:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_GEOS5v2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

Loads of the latest SST charts from ESRL, knock yourself out:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Best anomaly chart (in my opinion):
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.hov.gif

Detailed ENSO Discussion from NOAA:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

More info/ charts on Modoki El Nino:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

El Nino/ La Nina years/ ONI:
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

A GREAT resource for "no BS" historical ski season info:
http://bestsnow.net/

Latest PDO and history:
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK from snowforecast.com - Feb 15, 2018

Wednesday, Feb 14, 2018

LONGER RANGE: Saturday/ Sunday (17th-18th) through late next week we expect a busy pattern, with all areas of the west seeing frequent snow, some areas like Colorado should see snow every day it looks like, and with heavy snow for Colorado overall Sunday through next week, more moderate to maybe heavy for Utah and the northern Rocky Mountains (including the inland Northwest)/ Southwest Canada, and mostly light snow across Tahoe, but at least it will be snowing again. Winter is definitely coming back!

--> Late February and into March should be busy for the western US, with frequent storms for Tahoe and Utah, moving across Colorado also as the east Pacific ridge breaks down some (Feb 20th-22nd), allowing strong Pacific energy and moisture to move into the western US and southwest Canada, with abundant snowfall for all areas including those parched in recent months like in California. This should have been the pattern across the western US already, if patterns were anything near "normal" so far in 2018... Do You want to see OTHER AREAS mentioned, email me and let me know... CM


Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

SNOW this weekend for the Pacific Northwest to Tahoe, Monday snow for Colorado south to Taos...
We expect a fairly strong low pressure system to move through the Pacific Northwest and drop snow south to Tahoe, mostly light, but heavier snow for the cascades and northern Rocky Mountains of Idaho/ Montana/ Wyoming, before hitting Colorado with mostly light snow on Monday, then south to Taos Monday/ Tuesday. Check our all new (format) forecasts for the details.

-From Tuesday the 5th to about Tuesday the 12th, we expect a large "Omega" high to form across the western US/ coastal. This is expected to block all storm s from hitting most ski areas of the western US. The only areas that may see some snow are in the extreme Pacific Northwest/ southwest Canada, and Colorado may get dusted with some quick snows, otherwise the entire west is looking mild and mostly sunny. If you want the real insight on what is coming in the longer range, useable information, then keep checking back with the site that has been "Predicting Sick Days since 1998". Have a great season! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2017. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

After a strong storm and 150+knot jet stream push through Colorado later Thursday and Friday, we expect COLD air to move in on Saturday, with below Zero temperature readings expected on the upper mountain areas. Aspen-Snowmass should see -5 Fahrenheit Saturday morning, but thankfully the winds will have dropped off from the 65mph gusts they will experience on the upper mountain on Friday...

(Below video depicts the low pressure system and area of cold air we expect to be affecting Colorado by Friday night and Saturday, currently moving into the Pacific Northwest)



Layer up my friends!

(Monday, Jan 30 update...on track) - A strong storm will move in mid next through late next week (Wednesday through Friday) to drop several+ feet of snow on Tahoe and south to Mammoth.

The next storm looks like it will be diverted to the south of a large blocking high pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska as it approaches the California coast, so the origin of this storm is off the mid-Pacific (milder, higher snow levels). It looks like half of the available moisture in this storm (and half the snow potential) will be rain or a rain-snow mix below 6,500 to 7,000 feet. We are looking at 2.5 to 5" of potential precipitation in this thing, so with most at a 1:8 to 1:12 water to snow ratio, that equates to 1-2 feet of snow at 6,000 feet, and 2 to 5 feet of snow at and above 7,000 feet. All ingredients look like they could line up nicely for a major storm. We will be watching and updating on this one so stay tuned... CM

Nov 07, 2016
Today and all week/ weekend Mostly sunny and milder than usual weather is expected, under upper-level high pressure ridging that builds in stronger than usual for this time of year. Large swings between day and night temperatures are expected in the valleys. CM


LONGER RANGE...

-A high pressure ridge holds, as expected, into next week... (from the last few discussion updates:) "No one wants to hear this, but we may be affected by tranquil and mild weather under a strong high pressure ridge across the western US, through mid- November, with signs of a major change afterward... So that major change is to unsettled and colder weather, even a possible series of storms right before the big Thanksgiving Holiday, dropping some snow across northern New Mexico, and favoring the Rocky Mountains (trough axis east of the west coast this time, so storms are strengthening as they move into the Rockies). This unsettled period could last for a week, maybe more, we will watch. CM


Taos and Northern New Mexico 2016-2017 snowfall outlook guidance courtesy snowforecast.com

TSV_Climo_numbers_2016_2017 (the data)

TSV_Climo_chart (the chart)


CM

Forecast discussion for the Upper Midwest

Updated --  April 24th 12:43pm

Highlights-  Last post of the season...

****************************************************

Short Range- 0-6 days- (Following is written solely for N.MN and the UP of MI as they are likely the only areas left in the region that still have ski resorts open)

Pattern change from recent warmth to much cooler conditions has already taken place or it soon to do so. Mid week snows for the Arrowhead of MN- accumulations likely in the 2-5" range. Snow will melt, but not as fast as it should this time of year with temps  below freezing at night and upper 30's  until late in the  weekend.

**********************************************************

Long Range 7-21+ (updated 12:48pm  April 24th)

Temps should return to near normal temps for the first week of May. Remains of the previous colder pattern may linger enough to produce some very light snows sometime around Friday,  May 5th.  Should have more May like temps for the 2nd full week of May.

Thanks for reading.

Next update --when conditions are warranted.

 

JB

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK from snowforecast.com - Feb 15, 2018

Wednesday, Feb 14, 2018

LONGER RANGE: Saturday/ Sunday (17th-18th) through late next week we expect a busy pattern, with all areas of the west seeing frequent snow, some areas like Colorado should see snow every day it looks like, and with heavy snow for Colorado overall Sunday through next week, more moderate to maybe heavy for Utah and the northern Rocky Mountains (including the inland Northwest)/ Southwest Canada, and mostly light snow across Tahoe, but at least it will be snowing again. Winter is definitely coming back!

--> Late February and into March should be busy for the western US, with frequent storms for Tahoe and Utah, moving across Colorado also as the east Pacific ridge breaks down some (Feb 20th-22nd), allowing strong Pacific energy and moisture to move into the western US and southwest Canada, with abundant snowfall for all areas including those parched in recent months like in California. This should have been the pattern across the western US already, if patterns were anything near "normal" so far in 2018... Do You want to see OTHER AREAS mentioned, email me and let me know... CM


Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

Fri, August 31st, 2018 (begun this article)
Wednesday September 19, 2018 (I finally finished it!)

MODOKI EL NINO = bad, REGULAR EL NINO = not as bad, WEAK EL NINO to ENSO Neutral = possibly good! There are many possibilities with the last one (the one we think is coming) but we will nail it down for you! 

WA/ ID/ MT, and Inland Empire (Spokane-Coeur d'Alene)
FALL and WINTER SEASON FORECAST FROM SNOWFORECAST.COM!

...WHAT IS THE FORECAST?...
OCTOBER - (Above average snowfall and below average temperatures) Early season cold and October snows for the ski resorts, though best snow and coldest temperatures will be to the east of the divide and Wyoming/ southwest Montana. There will be enough cold to test out any snowmaking equipment, and the early snows will linger for some hours and even days to help cool the soil for some good base building when we move into November...
NOVEMBER - (Above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures) Continued good early season snow and lower than usual snow levels with early first measurable  snows in the Inland Empire of Spokane-CDA, likely in early November. We expect some Thanksgiving opening days...
DECEMBER - (Near to above average snowfall and near to below average temperatures through mid December, then dropping off to below average snowfall and near average temperatures) Good snowfall events through mid December and near to below average temperatures, then incoming storms start shifting to the south on a different storm  track, with lighter snows across the region as we move into the holidays.
JANUARY ONWARD, MORE COMING SOON - ? Stay tuned, but a brief synopsis: Dry for most of January with above average temperatures. Storms return in February with near to a bit below average snowfall (could still be good), then March through the rest of the season looks near to warmer than average in temperature, with below average snows, though April could produce some big storms and powder days to pass through the region, building the late season snowpack. More details are coming, and I will be naming resorts and forecasting long range snow totals. CM

...WHAT ARE THE FACTORS AND OPINIONS?...
Here are my August 31 observations: An El Nino that "wants" to happen, but meager warming to even some cooling in the key Nino regions (recent), and a mostly neutral status (currently) is not showing much hope for any El Nino pattern that may be classified as moderate or strong. In fact, I will say that we will not see a moderate or strong El Nino SST pattern this 2018-2019 season, and the NOAA forecasted weak El Nino is looking like a "maybe".
And, my September 15 observations: Latest guidance indicates that the El Nino SST anomaly will be weak, at best, in my opinion. Here is why: Cooler eastern Pacific waters (Nino 3.4 region)/ Subsurface waters heat content (180-100W Lat) has decreased/ and the current pattern is showing mostly a general cooling and not warming overall, though in the last 7 days, eastern Pacific surface waters off the coast of Ecuador (means "Equator") have warmed . Its mid September and this El Nino event should be a bit more evident. Its not. Even NOAA has backed off a bit with a 65% chance of El Nino formation, instead of the 70% they had called for early on in the summer when this anomaly looked more likely. For them to back off a bit like that indicates definite lost confidence, and this is not surprising, as I lost confidence in it occurring myself, back in July. Things work a bit slower in these large organizations, while us "loose cannons" (whatever in the hell that means) can blast off at will. Haha.

*An El Nino is still favored according to the above Climate Prediction Center chart*

*We have seen some areas of cooling in the Nino 1+2 and 3 regions, as this El Nino struggles to form. This is indicating cooling in the subsurface waters, which is a factor that is looked at for potential SST's*

*As of Sep 12, there is some warming going on again in the referenced "Nino 3" region, so overall there is a positive SST anomaly, but mostly less than +.5 (in yellow on the above chart), which is the threshold that needs to be met for 3 consecutive months before an actual El Nino pattern is recognized. For now we are in an "ENSO neutral" status.

SOLAR MINIMUM: In terms of sunspot activity, there is currently almost none, or even "none", zero, zilch, nada, many days. Decreased or zero sunspot activity also affects our weather patterns. The chart below shows how we are in a solar "grand minimum" right now:


Side note, look at the last minimum, in 07-08-09', when  the Inland Northwest had the most snow EVER recorded, back to back years, one with 170+ inches of snow in Coeur d'Alene, ID.

Also, we have seen some recent serious weather extremes this Summer of 2018, and have no reason to believe that we will not see similar extremes this fall and winter in North America:

From extreme heat in Europe, notably northern Europe:



To extreme snow and cold in August:

 NOAA: So to reiterate, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was forecasting a 60% likelihood for formation of an El Nino SST pattern this fall, and a 70% chance for the winter, 2018-2019, while now those forecasts are down to 50-55% and 65-70%, respectively. Large organizations like NOAA are not going to go backward on the forecast (decreased % chance), like this without very good reason, like, "its not happening like we thought it would guys"...

SNOWFORECAST.COM: At this point, a "weak" El Nino SST anomaly is the forecast from NOAA. I have believed since June that this would be a weak El Nino pattern that sets up, based on the afore-mentioned trend, but am now wondering if this El Nino will even show up at all. For those who desire to see some at least average rain and snowfall this winter, a weak El Nino or no El Nino may be best. If an El Nino, weak, does form, it is looking more likely to be the Modoki version, which on average, sucks (dry) all across the western US. Thankfully, as a weak factor (there are other factors), a weak El Nino of any kind will have a "weaker" influence on the weather patterns we see this fall and winter, THANKFULLY. We are also looking (currently) at a weakly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more of a long term state of ocean water temps), which will not help in the El Nino department. Neutral to "very weak El Nino" is what we are forecasting as we move into fall and maybe through the winter, at best +.5 which is barely classified as an El Nino. As well, with the Grand Solar Minimum, expect the unexpected, and so far, that has proven true in many parts of the world. How will all of these factors; Weak El Nino, or even "ENSO Neutral" SST anomaly, neutral PDO, GSM (solar), and my own intuition, affect the Northwest US and Western Canada forecast? Just scroll back to the top to find out!

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

Some References:
COLD AND SNOW:  https://www.theweek.info/index.php?newsid=3760 (Salzburg, over 1 foot of snow in August!)

 

HEAT:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/17/scorching-scandinavia-record-breaking-heat-hits-norway-finland-and-sweden (90+ degrees in Norway, all time record high temps!)

Great resource for current SST’s and anomalies:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

International Research Institute:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Latest ENSO Discussion:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php

Space Weather ("Solar Minimum"):
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

NCEP model forecast SST anomalies (1 model forecasting La Nina):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas2.html

The ONE outlier model forecasting La Nina:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_GEOS5v2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

Loads of the latest SST charts from ESRL, knock yourself out:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Best anomaly chart (in my opinion):
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.hov.gif

Detailed ENSO Discussion from NOAA:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

More info/ charts on Modoki El Nino:
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

El Nino/ La Nina years/ ONI:
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

A GREAT resource for "no BS" historical ski season info:
http://bestsnow.net/

Latest PDO and history:
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

 

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK from snowforecast.com - Feb 15, 2018

Wednesday, Feb 14, 2018

LONGER RANGE: Saturday/ Sunday (17th-18th) through late next week we expect a busy pattern, with all areas of the west seeing frequent snow, some areas like Colorado should see snow every day it looks like, and with heavy snow for Colorado overall Sunday through next week, more moderate to maybe heavy for Utah and the northern Rocky Mountains (including the inland Northwest)/ Southwest Canada, and mostly light snow across Tahoe, but at least it will be snowing again. Winter is definitely coming back!

--> Late February and into March should be busy for the western US, with frequent storms for Tahoe and Utah, moving across Colorado also as the east Pacific ridge breaks down some (Feb 20th-22nd), allowing strong Pacific energy and moisture to move into the western US and southwest Canada, with abundant snowfall for all areas including those parched in recent months like in California. This should have been the pattern across the western US already, if patterns were anything near "normal" so far in 2018... Do You want to see OTHER AREAS mentioned, email me and let me know... CM


Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.