Where to be this weekend… April 5-7…

Where to be this weekend... April 5-7...
Posted April 4, 2019 at 12:39PST

INSTAGRAM Aspen-Snowmass lift ticket giveaway... score a couple of day passes to your favorite mountain for some end of season festivities and great snow! The chance of winning is really good! Go to http://www.instagram.com/predicting_sickdays/

A few storms move into the Pacific Northwest down through Tahoe, and across Utah and Colorado, affecting Sun Valley, Big Sky, and Jackson Hole as well, delivering snow, but with some snow level issues...

By Friday afternoon...
Screen Shot 2019-04-04 at 12.40.10

High pressure ridging will be building in across the west coast as we move toward Saturday and Sunday, but first, we have 2 storms, today and another on Friday, hit Tahoe with a few inches to 1/2 foot of snow this afternoon through tonight, then on Friday a stronger system moves through with 1/2 to 1 foot of snow. Show up on Saturday for a warmer and spring conditions kind of day in Tahoe! Snow levels will be above 6,000 feet, near 7,000 feet at times for Tahoe.

Utah and Colorado will then see some snow Friday and Saturday, and the higher elevations mean less snow level issues. Light to moderate snow totals are expected, with some powder days possible Saturday for Jackson Hole and Big Sky as Sun Valley to Jackson Hole and Big Sky resorts will see snow now and through Saturday. Saturday's storm system may generate some Sunday powder days across northern Utah and Colorado. Southwest slopes are favored... Go get it!

We are giving away 2 Aspen-Snowmass lift tickets for use next weekend or the following one (19th-21st)! There will be a lot of "end of season" stuff going on... Be sure to follow us on Instagram for a shot and the announcement! CM
Create Your Account

Registration confirmation will be emailed to you.

←Go To Login

Snowmass
Aspen
Current weather icon
↑°
↓°
Live webcam image from resort
  • New Snow: in.
  • Forecasted: in.
  • Season Total: in.
  • Average Base: in.

Snow Potential:

Where to be for the best snow this weekend! (8-10th Feb)

Where to be for the best snow this weekend! (8-10th Feb)
WHERE TO BE IN THE WESTERN USA THIS WEEKEND!

Here is our early forecast for this weekend...

Hands-down, Tahoe – Mammoth will be the winner in terms of snow all through this weekend, with NO snow level issues, in fact dry and cold powder is what we mostly expect, especially on Sunday...

We are expecting two storms to move through, the first of which will be the weaker of the two, and will also be faster moving one, mainly a wave out ahead of the main storm to hit Saturday and Sunday.

It looks like the snow will begin flying again mainly Friday afternoon through overnight, with 6 to 10 inches of fresh snow forecast to be on the ground for the Saturday morning snow report, for favored resorts across Northern Tahoe like Sugar Bowl and Squaw-Alpine, and 3 to 6 inches of snow for other areas.

Friday, First storm, GFS Snow Accumulation by Saturday 4am based on a 1:10 water to snow ratio, whereas the water to snow ratio will be closer to 1:15 (more snow than shown on this map, is what is expected by the Saturday morning snow report)...

Screen Shot 2019-02-06 at 14.03.38

A stronger and larger scale, slower moving, and offshore positioning storm system starts dropping in from out of the north, located offshore, looking stronger/ colder, more dynamic, and dropping heavy snow Saturday and Sunday, basically ALL weekend long! We expect to see  10  to 18 inches of snow each day all across Tahoe-Mammoth, for a total of 2 (south Tahoe, Mammoth) to 3+ (north Tahoe) feet of extra snow expected this weekend! Saturday and Sunday!

Friday through Sunday, 2 storms, GFS Snow Accumulation by Sunday 4pm (close of business for most resorts on Sunday) based on a 1:10 water to snow ratio, whereas the water to snow ratio will be closer to 1:15 and even 1:20 (possibly MUCH more snow than shown on this map, is what is expected by the Sunday afternoon at 4pm! The snow will continue through Monday morning, so show up Monday if you like less crowds, DEEP and Fresh snow, and sunshine! Cold-smoke, No-joke powder! (on top of deep bases!)

Screen Shot 2019-02-06 at 14.47.22

Combined with the snow that has already fallen across Tahoe-Mammoth in recent weeks, conditions will be amazing this weekend! In fact, we are expecting no snow level issues whatsoever, and even a drier/ colder cold-smoke powder, especially on Sunday. If you are just looking for the best and deepest snow, Tahoe-Mammoth is going to be the place out west, this coming weekend! Resorts like Sugar Bowl will be favored with these storms, as they lie more westward than most, and will take up the bulk of available moisture and thus snowfall! Enjoy!!

12Z-20190206_GFSUS_prec_kuchsnow-48-123-10-100(Check out the bulls-eye of heavy snow from Tahoe to southern Idaho)

Here is a video I put together explaining how moisture and dynamics are looking:



Meteorologist- CM
Create Your Account

Registration confirmation will be emailed to you.

←Go To Login

Snowmass
Aspen
Current weather icon
↑°
↓°
Live webcam image from resort
  • New Snow: in.
  • Forecasted: in.
  • Season Total: in.
  • Average Base: in.

Snow Potential:

Southern Idaho/ Bogus Basin to be hit with snow, strong winds on Tuesday…

Southern Idaho/ Bogus Basin to be hit with snow, strong winds on Tuesday...
Monday at 3pm...

A big storm is coming in terms of wind and moderate snow, with multiple feet of snow to the north across north Idaho...

The jet stream will give strong dynamics, and we will see good moisture and some dense, base-building snowfall, about 4-7" to Bogus Basin, around 4" near the base and about 7 inches of snowfall up top, Tuesday morning through evening mainly. We are hoping for more but this will be a good coverage type of snow, helping to erase the early season thin spots.



We have more storms coming too, right through the holidays, and we are watching, updating, even giving long range forecasts out to a month+ away! Please be sure to check the details at our custom forecast for Bogus Basin HERE, sponsored by Bogus Basin!
Create Your Account

Registration confirmation will be emailed to you.

←Go To Login

Bogus Basin Current weather icon
↑°
↓°
Live webcam image from resort
  • New Snow: in.
  • Forecasted: in.
  • Season Total: in.
  • Average Base: in.

Snow Potential:

Sun Valley – Big Sky – 2018-2019 Seasonal Long Range Outlook

Sun Valley - Big Sky - 2018-2019 Seasonal Long Range Outlook
Fri, August 31st, 2018 (begun this article)
Wednesday September 19, 2018 (I finally finished it!)

MODOKI EL NINO = bad, REGULAR EL NINO = not always bad, WEAK EL NINO to ENSO Neutral = could be good (due also to other factors)! There are many possibilities with the last one (the one we think is coming) but we will nail it down for you! 

Southern Idaho, Sun Valley to Montana and Wyoming
FALL and WINTER SEASON FORECAST FROM SNOWFORECAST.COM!

...WHAT IS THE FORECAST?...
OCTOBER - (Near average snowfall and below average temperatures) Early season cold and October snows for the ski resorts, though best snow and coldest temperatures will be to the east of the divide and Wyoming/ southwest Montana (Big Sky and Jackson Hole), a bit drier for southern Idaho (Bogus Basin and Sun Valley), as storms drop in out of Canada for the most part, carrying the bulk of moisture and cold air to the east of the divide. There will be enough cold to test out any snowmaking equipment, even across southern Idaho, as cold air and moisture still manages to deliver some snow to Bogus Basin and Sun Valley at times. Early snows will linger for days at the resort elevations to help cool the soil for some good base building when we move into November... We also expect the usual transition season cut-off and closed low pressure systems to move in from the west and deliver some surprises (snow)... "Cut-off" means the low is cut off from and not being pushed around by, the storm steering flow (usually at 500mb).
NOVEMBER - (Near to just below average snowfall, and near to below average temperatures) Near average early season snow overall across the region (Montana and Wyoming will likely still do best) and mostly no snow level issues, with cold systems out of Canada clipping southern Idaho and hitting areas mainly east of the divide full force, as high pressure ridging offshore of the west coast allows storms to develop and move south from out of Canada, moving in with below average temperatures and possibly some extreme record cold. We expect some late November opening days on good bases mainly for Yellowstone-Jackson Hole, and some near to a bit below average base depths for Sun Valley and Bogus Basin, but pretty well preserved as colder than usual air helps to protect the snow...
DECEMBER - (Near average snowfall and near to below average temperatures through mid December, then dropping off to below average snowfall and near average temperatures in late December on some fair to good bases). Some good snowfall events through mid and maybe into late December, and near to below average temperatures should combine to be great for Christmas-New Year skiing/ boarding, then incoming storms start shifting to the south on a different storm  track, with lighter snows across the region as we move into the holidays, though there could still be some good moisture and snowfall from out of the southwest for especially for Bogus Basin and to a lesser extent Sun Vally.
JANUARY ONWARD, MORE COMING SOON - ? Stay tuned, but a brief synopsis: Dry for most of January with above average temperatures as high pressure ridging builds in, and the east coast gets hammered with cold and snow. Storms return in February with near average snowfall and temperatures for Bogus Basin and Sun Valley (a heavy snow is possible from storms on a more southern track), less than average snow for Big Sky, then March through the rest of the season looks near to warmer than average in temperature, with below average snows. April could produce some big storms and powder days to pass through the region, building the late season snowpack. More details are coming, and I will be naming resorts and forecasting long range snow totalsCM

...WHAT ARE THE FACTORS AND OPINIONS?...
Here are my August 31 observations: An El Nino that "wants" to happen, but meager warming to even some cooling in the key Nino regions (recent), and a mostly neutral status (currently) is not showing much hope for any El Nino pattern that may be classified as moderate or strong. In fact, I will say that we will not see a moderate or strong El Nino SST pattern this 2018-2019 season, and the NOAA forecasted weak El Nino is looking like a "maybe".
And, my September 15 observations: Latest guidance indicates that the El Nino SST anomaly will be weak, at best, in my opinion. Here is why: Cooler eastern Pacific waters (Nino 3.4 region)/ Subsurface waters heat content (180-100W Lat) has decreased/ and the current pattern is showing mostly a general cooling and not warming overall, though in the last 7 days, eastern Pacific surface waters off the coast of Ecuador (means "Equator") have warmed . Its mid September and this El Nino event should be a bit more evident. Its not. Even NOAA has backed off a bit with a 65% chance of El Nino formation, instead of the 70% they had called for early on in the summer when this anomaly looked more likely. For them to back off a bit like that indicates definite lost confidence, and this is not surprising, as I lost confidence in it occurring myself, back in July. Things work a bit slower in these large organizations, while us "loose cannons" (whatever in the hell that means) can blast off at will. Haha.

LONGRANGE_ENSO cpc _human reasoning_2
*An El Nino is still favored according to the above Climate Prediction Center chart*

LONGRANGE_SubsurfaceTempAnomalies

*We have seen some areas of cooling in the Nino 1+2 and 3 regions, as this El Nino struggles to form. This is indicating cooling in the subsurface waters, which is a factor that is looked at for potential SST's*

LONGRANGE_Last Year of Anomalies_best chart_Marked up

*As of Sep 12, there is some warming going on again in the referenced "Nino 3" region, so overall there is a positive SST anomaly, but mostly less than +.5 (in yellow on the above chart), which is the threshold that needs to be met for 3 consecutive months before an actual El Nino pattern is recognized. For now we are in an "ENSO neutral" status.

SOLAR MINIMUM: In terms of sunspot activity, there is currently almost none, or even "none", zero, zilch, nada, many days. Decreased or zero sunspot activity also affects our weather patterns. The chart below shows how we are in a solar "grand minimum" right now:

LONGRANGE_Sunspot Activity_Solar Minimum

Side note, look at the last minimum, in 07-08-09', when  the Inland Northwest had the most snow EVER recorded, back to back years, one with 170+ inches of snow in Coeur d'Alene, ID.

Also, we have seen some recent serious weather extremes this Summer of 2018, and have no reason to believe that we will not see similar extremes this fall and winter in North America:

From extreme heat in Europe, notably northern Europe:

LONGRANGE_Extremes_HeatInScandanavia


To extreme snow and cold in August:
LONGRANGE_Extremes_Salzburg
 NOAA: So to reiterate, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) was forecasting a 60% likelihood for formation of an El Nino SST pattern this fall, and a 70% chance for the winter, 2018-2019, while now those forecasts are down to 50-55% and 65-70%, respectively. Large organizations like NOAA are not going to go backward on the forecast (decreased % chance), like this without very good reason, like, "its not happening like we thought it would guys"...

SNOWFORECAST.COM: At this point, a "weak" El Nino SST anomaly is the forecast from NOAA. I have believed since June that this would be a weak El Nino pattern that sets up, based on the afore-mentioned trend, but am now wondering if this El Nino will even show up at all. For those who desire to see some at least average rain and snowfall this winter, a weak El Nino or no El Nino may be best. If an El Nino, weak, does form, it is looking more likely to be the Modoki version, which on average, sucks (dry) all across the western US. Thankfully, as a weak factor (there are other factors), a weak El Nino of any kind will have a "weaker" influence on the weather patterns we see this fall and winter, THANKFULLY. We are also looking (currently) at a weakly negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more of a long term state of ocean water temps), which will not help in the El Nino department. Neutral to "very weak El Nino" is what we are forecasting as we move into fall and maybe through the winter, at best +.5 which is barely classified as an El Nino. As well, with the Grand Solar Minimum, expect the unexpected, and so far, that has proven true in many parts of the world. How will all of these factors; Weak El Nino, or even "ENSO Neutral" SST anomaly, neutral PDO, GSM (solar), and my own intuition, affect the Northwest US and Western Canada forecast? Just scroll back to the top to find out!

Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

Snowforecast.com Copyright © 1998–2018. Unauthorized Use Prohibited.

Some References:
COLD AND SNOW:  https://www.theweek.info/index.php?newsid=3760 (Salzburg, over 1 foot of snow in August!)

HEAT:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/17/scorching-scandinavia-record-breaking-heat-hits-norway-finland-and-sweden (90+ degrees in Norway, all time record high temps!)

Great resource for current SST’s and anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

International Research Institute: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

Latest ENSO Discussion: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.php

Space Weather ("Solar Minimum"): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

NCEP model forecast SST anomalies (1 model forecasting La Nina): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas2.html

The ONE outlier model forecasting La Nina: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_GEOS5v2_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png

Loads of the latest SST charts from ESRL, knock yourself out: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Best anomaly chart (in my opinion): https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.hov.gif

Detailed ENSO Discussion from NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

More info/ charts on Modoki El Nino: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

El Nino/ La Nina years/ ONI: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

A GREAT resource for "no BS" historical ski season info: http://bestsnow.net/

Latest PDO and history: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

 
Create Your Account

Registration confirmation will be emailed to you.

←Go To Login

Bogus Basin Current weather icon
↑°
↓°
Live webcam image from resort
  • New Snow: in.
  • Forecasted: in.
  • Season Total: in.
  • Average Base: in.

Snow Potential: