June 21, 2019 – Steamboat getting hit with late June snow, down to the base!

June 21, 2019 - Steamboat getting hit with late June snow, down to the base!
Its snowing across northern Colorado, and more is coming through today and tomorrow, into Sunday.

Aspen will see snow to 8,500 feet, and may even see some snow in town... Welcome summer.

The weather pattern causing this is shown on the charts below:

500mb this morning
Screen Shot 2019-06-21 at 10.01.19

700mb this morning
Screen Shot 2019-06-21 at 10.01.54
Precip this morning
Screen Shot 2019-06-21 at 10.02.17
Views from Steamboat this morning:
Screen Shot 2019-06-21 at 10.04.44 Screen Shot 2019-06-21 at 10.05.16
https://www.steamboat.com/the-mountain/live-cams (top to base snowfall this morning)

Check snowforecast.com for the forecast: http://snowforecast.com/usa-forecasts/southwest-usa/colorado/snowmass-aspen/ CM
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Where to be this weekend? April 12th-14th

Where to be this weekend? April 12th-14th
Posted April 10, 2019 at 10:23am PST

We have a winner for our Aspen-Snowmass lift ticket giveaway on INSTAGRAM, check it out... <a href="http://www.instagram.com/predicting_sickdays/">http://www.instagram.com/predicting_sickdays/</a>

Colorado, and Sun Valley to Big Sky are the places to be this weekend... heres why:

#1 - A strong and cold storm is moving through Colorado and out onto the plains on Thursday, with moderate to heavy snow totals all across western Colorado, a storm total 1 to 2 feet for all areas! Northern resorts across Summit and Grand Counties will be favored under a northwest flow across the mountains.

#2 Resorts in the northern Rockies (Sun Valley through Big Sky look good) will see snow, mostly light to moderate, now through the weekend, for some fun fresh snow all weekend.

If you like sunshine plus deep fresh snow, go to Colorado, anywhere, northern resorts favored, but Aspen is looking at near a foot to 1.5 feet overall by Friday as the storm clears out... If you like the snow to be falling while on the slopes, head to the northern Rocky Mountains for best fresh coverage!

<strong>Now through the weekend
<a href="http://snowforecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Screen-Shot-2019-04-10-at-10.57.15.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-14908" src="http://snowforecast.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Screen-Shot-2019-04-10-at-10.57.15-1024x727.png" alt="Screen Shot 2019-04-10 at 10.57.15" width="840" height="596" /></a></strong>

CM
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Where to be for the best snow this weekend! (8-10th Feb)

Where to be for the best snow this weekend! (8-10th Feb)
WHERE TO BE IN THE WESTERN USA THIS WEEKEND!

Here is our early forecast for this weekend...

Hands-down, Tahoe – Mammoth will be the winner in terms of snow all through this weekend, with NO snow level issues, in fact dry and cold powder is what we mostly expect, especially on Sunday...

We are expecting two storms to move through, the first of which will be the weaker of the two, and will also be faster moving one, mainly a wave out ahead of the main storm to hit Saturday and Sunday.

It looks like the snow will begin flying again mainly Friday afternoon through overnight, with 6 to 10 inches of fresh snow forecast to be on the ground for the Saturday morning snow report, for favored resorts across Northern Tahoe like Sugar Bowl and Squaw-Alpine, and 3 to 6 inches of snow for other areas.

Friday, First storm, GFS Snow Accumulation by Saturday 4am based on a 1:10 water to snow ratio, whereas the water to snow ratio will be closer to 1:15 (more snow than shown on this map, is what is expected by the Saturday morning snow report)...

Screen Shot 2019-02-06 at 14.03.38

A stronger and larger scale, slower moving, and offshore positioning storm system starts dropping in from out of the north, located offshore, looking stronger/ colder, more dynamic, and dropping heavy snow Saturday and Sunday, basically ALL weekend long! We expect to see  10  to 18 inches of snow each day all across Tahoe-Mammoth, for a total of 2 (south Tahoe, Mammoth) to 3+ (north Tahoe) feet of extra snow expected this weekend! Saturday and Sunday!

Friday through Sunday, 2 storms, GFS Snow Accumulation by Sunday 4pm (close of business for most resorts on Sunday) based on a 1:10 water to snow ratio, whereas the water to snow ratio will be closer to 1:15 and even 1:20 (possibly MUCH more snow than shown on this map, is what is expected by the Sunday afternoon at 4pm! The snow will continue through Monday morning, so show up Monday if you like less crowds, DEEP and Fresh snow, and sunshine! Cold-smoke, No-joke powder! (on top of deep bases!)

Screen Shot 2019-02-06 at 14.47.22

Combined with the snow that has already fallen across Tahoe-Mammoth in recent weeks, conditions will be amazing this weekend! In fact, we are expecting no snow level issues whatsoever, and even a drier/ colder cold-smoke powder, especially on Sunday. If you are just looking for the best and deepest snow, Tahoe-Mammoth is going to be the place out west, this coming weekend! Resorts like Sugar Bowl will be favored with these storms, as they lie more westward than most, and will take up the bulk of available moisture and thus snowfall! Enjoy!!

12Z-20190206_GFSUS_prec_kuchsnow-48-123-10-100(Check out the bulls-eye of heavy snow from Tahoe to southern Idaho)

Here is a video I put together explaining how moisture and dynamics are looking:



Meteorologist- CM
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4 to 5 FEET of snow for Tahoe through weekend/ Monday! Long Range update too!

4 to 5 FEET of snow for Tahoe through weekend/ Monday! Long Range update too!
Jan 31, 2019 - 3pm Pacific Time

4 to 5 FEET of snow is expected for Tahoe this weekend through Monday, then expect sun + fresh snow on Tuesday!

Heavy snow is expected for Tahoe on Saturday, but not at lake level!

At lake level and many resort base elevations below 7,000 feet, expect an initial snowfall of several inches Friday night, followed by rain or rain snow mix on Saturday, multiple feet, but snow levels with an expected dew point near 40F during the heaviest precip on Saturday will be at least 7,000 feet, so only places like Mt Rose and Kirkwood will be seeing base snowfall on Saturday through about early afternoon, then colder air moves in with the last part of that storm.  Upper mountain areas above 7,000 and 7,500 feet will see heavy snowfall, possibly 2 feet on Saturday, of some dense "Sierra Cement".

Show up on Sunday for some fresh lighter and colder powder on top of the cement, Sunday morning... Snow will still be falling...

On Monday a cold and strong system moves in with another 1+ to 2 feet of snow, and NO snow level issues!

If you want sunshine and deep fresh powder, Tahoe is looking awesome Tuesday and even Wednesday with some untracked powder likely after a weekday. Go get it! CM

No snow level issues are expected for Mammoth on Saturday, and 2+ feet of powder are expected to fall just that day, more on Sunday but lighter... The Monday storm will not drop as much snow in Mammoth as in Tahoe as it is a more northern track system, but we still expect close to a foot of new snow! CM

Expect 1 to 1 1/2 feet of snow in Big Bear Saturday through Saturday night, with snow levels up around 7,000 feet...

Snow Model for this weekend through Monday:

Click for larger image

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: Most of next week is expected to be tranquil under a ridge of high pressure, then late next week/ weekend (mainly weekend, 9th/ 10th) we expect low pressure to move in off the Pacific. This will be strong low pressure aided by large scale low pressure troughing developing across the west coast and soon after the western US. Initially and at times there will be snow levels rising to near/ above 7,000 feet as we expect a tropical moisture tap with many storms, but we also expect plenty of snow down to lower elevations thanks to an active Gulf of Alaska and plenty of follow up cold storms. We expect this type of pattern to mostly dominate February, until late Feb when we may be back under high pressure ridging and no storms. El Nino is expected to possibly stick around for 2 years, so we may be looking good for a while. Expect a drawn out and rainy/ snowy spring for California. CM

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TAHOE FORECAST DISCUSSION – Apr 11, 2019

TAHOE FORECAST DISCUSSION - Apr 11, 2019
LONGER RANGE FORECAST Updated Thursday Apr 11, 2019: One storm (weak) moves through Sunday (light snow up around 8,000+ feet, light rain showers below), and another late Monday through early Tuesday (2 to 4" of snow, snow level 5,000 to 6,000 feet, below resort elevations), for quick shots of light snow.

ALL next week (15th - 19th) looks mostly sunny and mild, spring weather and snow surface conditions...

We may see a shot of showers/ snow that weekend (20-21st April), then more high pressure ridging and mild spring weather.

The last days of April into early May could be busy again with low pressure systems and snowfall as the pattern reverts back to unsettled.

May overall, more busy with storms than usual, more rains for California, more snow for the Sierra Nevada. More details are coming. Do you like what we do? Please let us know. CM

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/snowforecast

TahoePic for site

NOTES: When paying full attention to the Tahoe area, which I have been watching weather patterns for since the 1970's, no one is more accurate in their forecasts of weather events/ timing/ snow totals, including in the long range. We gained quite a reputation for our Tahoe forecasts over a span of almost 15 years, gaining the attention of TV stations who used the forecasts with no mention of source, a movie financier who wanted me to be a part of a "think tank" group of professionals, radio stations, etc. Even major growers/ ag interests were using these free forecasts (for the longer range accuracy of weather event timing and significance), as an accurate long range forecaster is the equivalent of a "fortune teller", as told to me by the movie financier. There are competitors who charge for their info, and we do not, even though our information is a paid service in other formats we continue to deliver to agriculture customers to this day (Circa 1995). As I stated, I put my forecasts up against anyone else's in the area.

I never charged the site user for my services. The skier/ snowboarder has enough to pay for with fuel, lift tickets and passes, gear, life, etc., and I feel it is a service that should be provided by the host, the resort, to its visitors, even if in the form of advertising on the site. I have the same awesome traffic as the rest of the snow sports niche sites, but am not going to run Google ads so they can charge $20/ cpm and give us less than a dollar cpm (literally their crumbs, and what are they creating on a daily basis? weather forecasts? So, no thanks).

I hope this service is useful for you. CM
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TAHOE FORECAST DISCUSSION – JAN 11, 2019

TAHOE FORECAST DISCUSSION - JAN 11, 2019
SHORTER RANGE: Currently all storm energy is being pushed to the south into southern California, with some heavy snow for the SoCal Mountains. By this coming Monday night and Tuesday, we are expecting 6 to 12 inches of snow overall for the Mammoth through Tahoe area, as a weakened storm moves in but is deflected mostly, causing a glancing blow to the area, for limited moisture and dynamics, then, Next Tuesday through Thursday (15th-17th Jan)... HEAVY SNOW, multiple feet per day even, moves into Tahoe and Mammoth, thanks to deep moisture and strong dynamics, plus an always favored southwest flow of winds across the mountains. The last storm, late Wednesday through Thursday, looks the strongest and looks like it will move in across the area, for full forcing to deliver max snowfall. Show up next Friday for the most fresh + sunshine possibilities as clearing is expected... CM

LONGER RANGE: From the last update about a week ago, this unsettled period should last into around the 18th-20th of January (looking like it ends mostly Friday the 18th as the last storm departs), then in the last part of Jan and early February (through the 8th of Feb maybe), we start off with a snow down time under high pressure ridging. Storms begin to move in again after, frequently for frequent snow. CM

NOTES: When paying full attention to the Tahoe area, which I have been watching weather patterns for since the 1970's, no one is more accurate in their forecasts of weather events/ timing/ snow totals, including in the long range. We gained quite a reputation for our Tahoe forecasts over a span of almost 15 years, gaining the attention of TV stations who used the forecasts with no mention of source, a movie financier who wanted me to be a part of a "think tank" group of professionals, radio stations, etc. Even major growers/ ag interests were using these free forecasts (for the longer range accuracy of weather event timing and significance), as an accurate long range forecaster is the equivalent of a "fortune teller", as told to me by the movie financier. There are competitors who charge for their info, and we do not, even though our information is a paid service in other formats we continue to deliver to agriculture customers to this day (Circa 1995). As I stated, I put my forecasts up against anyone else's in the area.

I never charged the site user for my services. The skier/ snowboarder has enough to pay for with fuel, lift tickets and passes, gear, life, etc., and I feel it is a service that should be provided by the host, the resort, to its visitors, even if in the form of advertising on the site. I have the same awesome, nice traffic as the rest of the snow sports niche sites, but am not going to run Google ads so they can charge $20/ cpm and give us less than a dollar cpm (literally their crumbs, and what are they creating on a daily basis? weather forecasts? So, no thanks).

That said... I watch Colorado as that is where the business is for me. Recently, Bogus Basin joined the client list and now we work up a complete custom forecast for them as well, with a long range outlook. I will be drawing from that already completed work to deliver you some short, but mostly longer range outlooks for Tahoe, for now. I hope it is useful for you. CM
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LONG RANGE FORECAST – JAN 05, 2019

LONG RANGE FORECAST - JAN 05, 2019
It has been a while since we updated this outlook. When paying full attention to the Tahoe area, which I have been watching weather patterns for since the 1970's, no one is more accurate in their forecasts of weather events/ timing/ snow totals, including in the long range. We gained quite a reputation for our Tahoe forecasts over a span of almost 15 years, gaining the attention of TV stations who used the forecasts with no mention of source, a movie financier who wanted me to be a part of a "think tank" group of professionals, radio stations, etc. Even major growers/ ag interests were using these free forecasts (for the longer range accuracy of weather event timing and significance), as an accurate long range forecaster is the equivalent of a "fortune teller", as told to me by the movie financier. There are competitors who charge for their info, and we do not, even though our information is a paid service in other formats we continue to deliver to agriculture customers to this day (Circa 1995). As I stated, I put my forecasts up against anyone else's in the area.

We gave out over $50,000 in SWAG (lodging, tickets, passes, gear, even Nativa Naturals food) from 2009-2011, stuff we couldn't even afford to buy ourselves, to many people from SFO and SAC, TVL area. If you check my bio you will see my story, there is a LOT more to it than what I am typing here.

I have received many emails due to the missing updates. The answer is, we have not had any support from advertisers, resorts, anyone in this region since around 2013. I continued on with the forecasting hoping for some support in the form of advertising or sponsorship, but it didn't happen, and I do not know anyone else who works for free.

That said, I would like to get these forecast outlooks going again-->

I never charged the site user for this service. The skier/ snowboarder has enough to pay for with fuel, lift tickets and passes, gear, life, etc., and I feel it is a service that should be provided by the host, the resort, to its visitors, even if in the form of advertising on the site. I have the same awesome, nice traffic as the rest of the snow sports niche sites, but am not going to run Google ads so they can charge $20/ cpm and give us less than a dollar cpm.

That said... I watch Colorado as that is where the business is for me. Recently, Bogus Basin joined the client list and now we work up a complete custom forecast for them as well, with a long range outlook. I will be drawing from that already completed work to deliver you a broad-brush longer range outlook for Tahoe, for now. I hope it is useful for you:

LONGER RANGE: The 9th of January another low pressure system moves in with good potential snowfall, on the order of roughly a foot of snow so not a big deal but definitely welcomed fresh snow. The snow levels should run just below resort elevations for the typical "Sierra Cement", dense base building snowfall. The 11-12th (roughly) and then the 13-18th of January, we expect unsettled conditions to continue dominating the western US (had this forecast for over a month, early Dec forecast for this mid-late Jan time frame), and we expect a prominent moisture tap from the tropics, as El Nino starts to show itself more... So basically, between the 9th and 18th, we expect many more storms to move through with snow for Tahoe through Mammoth, and down south to including SoCal... Not bad! This unsettled period should last into around the 18th-20th of January, then in the last part of Jan and early February (through the 8th maybe), we start off with a snow down time under high pressure ridging. More to come. CM
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Tahoe – Mammoth – April 04, 2018

Tahoe - Mammoth - April 04, 2018
Wednesday, April 4th, 2018

..NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
Mild weather is expected through Thursday. A few light showers are possible today and Thursday, mainly well north of Interstate 80. A strong atmospheric river will impact northeast California and western Nevada Friday into Saturday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rain, high elevation snow, gusty winds, and concerns for flooding along rivers and streams.

..MORE DETAIL...
(Translated from NWS but added in some detail and our own outlook)
A strong late season Atmospheric River (AR) will bring periods of heavy precipitation to the region Friday and Saturday. With a strong sub-tropical influence and the jet stream (cold air to the north of this) forecast to stay well north of the region during most of precipitation event. Precip will fall
primarily as rain, even in the higher elevations above 9,000 and 10,000 feet. The main concern continues to be flooding, both for small creeks and streams, and for main stem rivers. There is a flood watch in effect from late Friday afternoon through Saturday for the Sierra and the Sierra foothills.

It is late in the atmospheric river season and this AR is forecast to be solidly in the strong category, which is quite rare for this time of year. PWAT (moisture) and IVT (moisture + transport) anomalies are on the very high end of their respective scales for this time of year, and between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, several inches of water or more will fall on thew west slopes of the Sierra Nevada.

Precipitation will begin to move into the Sierra and NE California by Thursday night with periods of light to moderate precipitation through Friday afternoon as warm advection precipitation begins to push into the Sierra. A 6-12 hour period of very heavy precipitation is expected Friday night into Saturday morning as the core of the low pressure nears the Pacific Northwest coast, bringing increased forcing to the moisture laden
environment over the Sierra. The very warm temperatures aloft will promote more efficient warm rain processes and will likely result in impressive rain rates Friday night (heavy rain and flooding likely).

Current forecast for QPF is up to around 3-4 inches along the Sierra crest with 1.5-2 inches along the immediate lee of the Sierra and 0.5-1.0 inch spilling into western Nevada. During the period of heaviest precipitation the jet stream and the cold core of the low is forecast to remain well north of the
Sierra. Very warm subtropical air is forecast to move into the area from the southwest with mid-level temperatures potentially rising to around +3C to +5C during the heaviest precipitation. This will likely push snow levels to 10,000+ to 11,000 feet later Friday through early Saturday. CM

NEXT WEEK...
Early through mid next week looks busy with storms, colder this time, with snow levels to resort bases... Moderate to heavy snow is expected Tuesday and again next Thursday (9th/ 11th), followed by some sunshine and warming. After the 15th/ 16th or so we see high pressure build in across the eastern Pacific and west US coast, with sunny skies and warming temperatures, quite spring-like. CM
Feel free to share this, but please cite credit to snowforecast.com. Thank you! CM

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