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Hydrologic Outlook
COC007-033-051-053-067-077-083-085-091-111-113-UTC019-037-290000-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
856 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Strong southwesterly winds ahead of a closed low centered over
California will pull tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Odalys and
Hurricane Polo towards eastern Utah and western Colorado, with
atmospheric moisture peaking in our area on Monday. The northerly
extent of the expected excessive rainfall poses a threat to our
southern San Juan river basins. Current forecasts suggest 1 to 4
inches of rain Monday morning through early Wednesday. At face value,
rivers and tributaries will see a rise due to the forecast rainfall.
However, localized heavier amounts could result in flooding across
the southern San Juan foothills and communities further downstream.

Rivers have responded rapidly to recent rainfall due to saturated
soils and increased runoff potential. Thus, prolonged periods of
additional rainfall over these regions would trigger a similar
response. The current precipitation forecast suggests larger peaks in
several creeks and rivers than what has been recently observed.
However, high end probabilistic rainfall amounts (i.e. above 90th
percentile) may lead to rivers exceeding action stage to minor
flooding. Most probable basins to see significant rises include; the
Rio Blanco, San Juan, Piedra, Los Pinos/Vallecito Creek, and the
Animas River Basins.

Convective storms and periods of heavy rainfall fed from said
tropical moisture could result in localized flooding impacts across
the CWA. However, confidence decreases rapidly north of the San
Juans. Confidence has increased enough for a Flood Watch to be issued
for southern portions of the forecast area valid from 6AM Monday
through 6AM Wednesday. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts
especially for those who reside and/or plan to recreate in the Watch
areas.

$$

BS

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1127 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

COZ017>023-UTZ022-028-029-290530-
/O.CON.KGJT.FA.A.0009.260928T1200Z-260930T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan
Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower
Dolores River-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-La Sal and Abajo Mountains-
Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
Including the cities of Ridgway, Loghill Village, Telluride, Mountain
Village, Ouray, Lake City, Sawpit, Pagosa Springs, Silverton, Rico,
Nucla, Naturita, Norwood, Slick Rock, Cortez, Mancos, Dolores, Dove
Creek, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, Blanding, Goulding, Bluff,
Tselakai Dezza, Aneth, Montezuma Creek, Mexican Hat, Halchita, White
Mesa, Monticello, La Sal, Eastland, Spanish Valley, Fry Canyon, and
Canyonlands National Park
1127 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MDT MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM
MDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Colorado, including the following areas, Animas
  River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Northwest San Juan
  Mountains, Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River, San Juan River
  Basin, Southwest San Juan Mountains and Uncompahgre Plateau and
  Dallas Divide and southeast Utah, including the following areas,
  Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
  Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...From 6 AM MDT Monday through 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding will be possible over burn scars, at low-water
  crossings, and along creeks, streams, washes, arroyos and other
  flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their
  banks. Unpaved roads could become muddy and impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Periods of heavy rainfall, associated with remnant moisture from
    Hurricane Polo, are expected to produce numerous showers and
    embedded thunderstorms. Heavy rain falling on saturated soils and
    burn scars could lead to localized flash flooding and rises on
    local rivers.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

TGR

Hazard Report Provided By forecast.weather.gov