WEATHER DISCUSSION - Friday March 14, 2024 -

Today looks colder and "snowy" by afternoon as another low pressure system moves through but mainly to the south. Saturday and Sunday expect lots of wind, cloudy, and some heavy snow both days. All the factors are lining up for a great snow event (jet stream, moisture, cold air=energy, orographics (favorable cross-mountain wind forcing), and due to this, 2 feet of snow is possible for favored spots, and I do expect some big snow drifts due to strong and gusty winds this weekend. I am forecasting 14 to 22" for Bogus Basin between Saturday and Sunday, with another snow day added on for Monday (3-5") as low pressure passes through but starts cutting south, removing some energy from the region. More snow is expected, mainly lingering, on Tuesday as low pressure moves east, south, and away, with a ridge of high pressure building in. Expect mid-winter conditions and snow coverage, plus some awesome sunshine next Tuesday and Wednesday. The mountain will be transformed back to mid-winter conditions, as promised. Temperatures will remain cold for good snow preservation, but higher angle sunshine will cause some base snow meltage.

LONGER RANGE.

After a short break through next Wednesday the 19th (show up this day for snow + sun), expect to see continued frequent snowfalls through the rest of March (busy with snow), with the first salvo being next Thursday/ Friday (20-21 March), moderate snowfall, with overall more significant snows for the region as stronger storm systems move in carrying increased moisture, and more focused energy across the Pacific Northwest. This trend continues, though we will have to watch for the southward focused systems which will exist also, giving California and southern California some heavy rains and snows, leaving less energy (and snow) for Bogus Basin. By the last day or 2 of March, and into early April, we may see a bit of a warm-up and sunny skies under strong high pressure ridging across the Pacific Northwest. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Tuesday March 11, 2024 -

Mild and becoming windy today as low pressure approaches. From the last discussion; "By next Wednesday I expect at least a week of daily snowfalls, significant to heavy at times, for another mountain transformation! Multiple feet of snow are expected in that week from next Wednesday the 12th, to the 19th of March" So this is still the forecast, multiple storms, starting with one that has close-call snow levels, wet snow, mainly Wednesday evening, then snow levels drop with a cold front Wednesday night, when strong dynamics and good moisture move in, along with a favorable southwest flow of winds across the mountains (good orographics). Thursday looks colder and snowy as the system moves through. Friday and Saturday both look colder and "snowy" as another low pressure system moves through, a bit more limited on moisture but no lack of cold air and energy. Sunday through next Tuesday we see snow daily, as promised, a week+ of snowy days that will transform the mountain back to mid-winter. The Sunday and Monday storm is looking pretty strong.

LONGER RANGE.

After a potential short break next Wednesday the 19th (show up this day for snow + sun), then we should see frequent snowfalls through late March (busy with snow), with overall more significant snows for the region as stronger storm systems move in carrying increased moisture, and more focused energy across the Pacific Northwest. This trend continues, though we will have to watch for the southward focused systems which will exist also, giving California and southern California some heavy rains and snows, leaving less energy (and snow) for Bogus Basin. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday March 06, 2024 -

Today there is a low pressure circulation/ energy to the west and east, generally across the southern Idaho region, with light snow showers possible at any time, light accumulations to help freshen up the slopes today. Friday through Sunday look mostly sunny, a GREAT spring weekend, above freezing daytime temperatures, still in the 30's though, then warmer and windy Sunday and Monday as low pressure starts to displace high pressure ridging on a large scale.. By Next Wednesday I expect at least a week of daily snowfalls, significant to heavy at times, for another mountain transformation! Multiple feet of snow are expected in that week from next Wednesday the 12th, to the 19th of March.

LONGER RANGE.

Light snow potential next Monday, then next Tuesday/ Wednesday expect moderate to heavy snow, a good potential for a snow day or better, as stronger low pressure moves through the Northwest US with strong dynamics and wind forcing/ upslope. We should see frequent snowfalls through late March (busy with snow), with overall more significant snows for the region as stronger storm systems move in carrying increased moisture, and more focused energy across the Pacific Northwest. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Tuesday March 04, 2024 -

A high pressure ridge weakens today, and tonight a weak disturbance moves across the region with some "isolated snow showers" potential this evening and tonight. On Wednesday high pressure weakens as low pressure moves into the west, focused to the south, and clouds increase across the region with snow shower potential late afternoon through overnight, maybe 1 inch of accumulation. On Thursday low pressure splits energy to the south and across the Northwest US, low centered across southern Idaho and Bogus Basin, with light snow showers possible at any time, light accumulations to freshen up the slopes. On Friday we are clearing out as high pressure ridges in across the Northwest US for mostly sunny skies, temperatures looking cold at first under a northwest wind flow on Friday, popping up to above freezing this weekend under mostly sunny skies (Saturday and Sunday), still in the 30's though.

LONGER RANGE.

Light snow potential next Monday, then next Tuesday/ Wednesday expect moderate to heavy snow, a good potential for a snow day or better, as stronger low pressure moves through the Northwest US with strong dynamics and wind forcing/ upslope. We should see frequent snowfalls through late March (busy with snow), with overall more significant snows for the region as stronger storm systems move in carrying increased moisture, and more focused energy across the Pacific Northwest. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Sunday February 23, 2024 -

It is looking like mostly rain at the base this Sunday morning, and that is what is expected all day off and on through this afternoon, when snow levels drop to near the base, this evening and overnight light snow is expected base to top, mostly light as moisture decreases. This is due to a relatively "warm" plume of moisture feeding up from the southwest and offshore of California. Snow levels rise to near 7,600 feet or so (200 feet below the 7,800ft top elevation at Bogus Basin). Some snow is expected up top today, with a rain mix or rain below that. On Monday another system moves in, with snow level issues again (morning), then mid day sunshine breaks through, with VERY windy conditions expected. It will be colder Monday night, and I expect a shot of light snow then as Pacific low pressure moves through, into a much colder Tuesday. Tuesday looks like snow showers and much colder, with snow ending after the morning hours, and sunshine breaking through during the afternoon. On Wednesday and Thursday (Feb 26-27) expect clearing as high pressure ridging moves in, with mostly sunny skies. Friday and Saturday (first days of March) we see the same sunshine under high pressure ridging.

LONGER RANGE.

After March 2nd (next weekend), the pattern becomes busy again as stronger and colder (than the last storms of February) low pressure systems move through. We should see frequent snowfalls for a week or so, past March 10, maybe to mid month (busy with snow). Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday February 20, 2024 -

Mostly sunny as low pressure drops to the south today... On Friday we are looking drier and with chilly temperatures as high pressure ridging builds in, then a shot, a dusting of snow Friday night, more sun on Saturday, then larger scale low pressure moves in Saturday night and Sunday, with SNOW for Sunday and Monday, possible snow day criteria. We have some snow level issues on Sunday and will be watching and updating, but the trend is for some snow accumulations base to top on Sunday, with some mid-day snow levels popping up to 7,500 feet (300 feet below the 7,800ft top elevation at Bogus Basin). On Monday another system moves in, maybe some snow level issues again, but COLDER Monday night and we have a good shot of more snow then as Pacific low pressure moves through, into a colder Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday (Feb 26-27) expect clearing as high pressure ridging moves in, with mostly sunny skies.

LONGER RANGE.

After/ around March 2nd, the pattern becomes busy again after a short sunny break. We should see frequent snowfalls for a week or so. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday February 17, 2024 -

ANOTHER SNOW DAY TODAY as strong low pressure and good moisture move through, on Tuesday high pressure is ridging in, with an AMAZING DAY if you love GREAT SNOW + sunshine! On Wednesday a pretty decent looking storm moves through, with a good shot of "powder day" level snowfall. This snow ends on Thursday, clearing out to mostly sunny as low pressure drops to the south. On Friday we are looking drier and with chilly temperatures as high pressure ridging builds in. Saturday we see a system brush the area, but for now looking dry. Sunday through early next week looks busy, with a good shot of more snow as Pacific low pressure moves through.

LONGER RANGE.

Increased Gulf of Alaska/ Pacific storm energy is expected the last 5 days or so of February and through early March (ie. more and more frequent snowfalls). More detail is coming. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Saturday February 15, 2024 -

After some sunshine and AMAZING conditions today, the next storm moves in tonight and Sunday with a good shot of new snow expected thanks to good dynamics and focused moisture. Nice and fresh turns should be had for Monday's holiday, as snow continues to fall. On Tuesday we see a break, then more respectable snowfall on Wednesday as the next storm moves through, and unsettled into Thursday with more snow.

LONGER RANGE.

Off and on snow is expected through February, but more high-pressure dominant this time, with more sun and less snow overall, as we will be mainly on the east side of high pressure ridging, with more sun mixed in with the snowfalls. We may see increased Gulf of Alaska/ Pacific storm energy as we move into March (ie. more and more frequent snowfalls). Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Wednesday February 12, 2024 -

HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW… It has been very cold and dry, even touch -10F this morning on the mountain! On Thursday a strong storm moves through mainly later morning through overnight, snow heaviest through evening, and snow continuing through Friday though overall lighter, as deep moisture is pushed across the mountain ridges and forcing is very strong. The snow will be a more dense and water-filled powder. This weekend looks unsettled with some additional snow moving in as fast moving systems pass through. Decent additional accumulations are possible on a daily basis, so nice and fresh turns should be had, into next Monday/ Tuesday (17-18th).

LONGER RANGE.

Off and on snow is expected through February, but more high-pressure dominant this time, with more sun and less snow overall, as we will be mainly on the east side of high pressure ridging, with more sun mixed in with the snowfalls. We may see increased Gulf of Alaska/ Pacific storm energy as we move into March (ie. more and more frequent snowfalls). Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Wednesday February 05, 2024 -

SNOW IS NOT OVER YET...Colder air is now moving in with some lingering light snow showers this morning, with progressively colder air expected today, and really cold air tonight as more light snow moves in. On Thursday a strong storm moves through mainly later day - overnight, through Friday, with heavy snow expected, and it will be a colder and drier powder. This weekend could still go a couple of ways, lots of sun and chilly air, plus amazing conditions, or more clouds than sun, and some light and mostly non-accumulating snow, plus AMAZING conditions! Either way, you win with the conditions, and I am forecasting an in-between scenario, as high pressure ridging slowly builds in across the Pacific Northwest into early next week (through the 11th).

LONGER RANGE.

After a short break (from snow) early next week (mostly sunny), expect another round of snowfall mid and late next week, for about 3 days (through the 14th-15th), with frequent snowfalls expected, another 1 or 2 day break, then off and on snow through later February as we will then be mainly on the east side of high pressure ridging, with more sun mixed in with the snowfalls this time, and colder, drier air, as storms target the central US, so I am not expecting big totals from most of these systems (no mid-Pacific moisture connection or "atmospheric rivers" at this point, more over-land movement of systems). Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday February 03, 2024 -

THE TOTAL MOUNTAIN TRANSFORMATION CONTINUES...Deep moisture and strong dynamics continue as the pattern continues busy, with the snowfall continuing to bury the mountain in the best snow of the season. This will continue through Tuesday as a number of waves move through the large scale low pressure trough, tapping into good moisture from the Pacific Ocean. Plenty of wind will accompany the snow, with blowing and drifting expected, making measurements difficult to attain without the moisture equivalent being measured also, and coupled with temperatures during snowfall. Colder air moves in after lingering snowfall accumulations on Wednesday, with progressively colder air expected Wednesday, and really cold Wednesday night. On Thursday another strong storm moves through with heavy snow expected, mainly the 2nd half of the day but we will watch the timing. It will be a colder and drier powder. On a very cold Friday expect even colder and drier powder, maybe a few inches of it, as the last blast of this weeks action moves through. This weekend could go a couple of ways, lots of sun and chilly air, plus amazing conditions, or more clouds than sun, and some light and mostly non-accumulating snow, plus AMAZING conditions! Either way, you win with the conditions. I forecast an in-between scenario, as high pressure ridging slowly builds in across the Pacific Northwest.

LONGER RANGE.

After a short break (from snow) this weekend (8-9 Feb, mostly sunny), expect another round of snowfall next week, for about 3 days, with frequent snowfalls expected, another 2-ish day break, then snowy through mid February and beyond as we will then be mainly on the east side of high pressure ridging, with more sun mixed in with the snowfalls this time, and colder, drier air, as storms target the central US, so I am not expecting big totals from most of these systems (no mid-Pacific moisture connection, more over-land movement of systems). Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Sunday February 02, 2024 -

MASSIVE SNOWFALL... Lots and lots of snow thanks to strong dynamics, and a solid stream of moisture, for mostly continuous snow today and tomorrow, right through Tuesday and tapering off Wednesday... Expect a huge mountain transformation with daily snow all the way through next week, heavy at times, as low pressure shifts to focus on the Pacific Northwest. Multiple systems are expected through the weekend, with snow being heavy at times, and some drifting and blowing of snow. Daily snowfalls are expected through next Thursday or so.

LONGER RANGE.

After a short break next weekend (8-9 Feb, mostly sunny), expect another round of snowfall, for about 3 days, with frequent snowfalls expected, another 2-ish day break, then snowy through mid February and beyond. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Friday January 31, 2024 -

TOTAL MOUNTAIN TRANSFORMATION... Expect a huge mountain transformation with daily snow all the way through next week, heavy at times, as low pressure shifts to focus on the Pacific Northwest. Multiple systems are expected today and through the weekend, with snow being heavy at times, and some drifting and blowing of snow. Daily snowfalls are expected through next Thursday or so.

LONGER RANGE.

After a short break next weekend (8-9 Feb, mostly sunny), expect another round of snowfall, for about 3 days, with frequent snowfalls expected, another 2-ish day break, then snowy through mid February and beyond. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday January 27, 2024 -

We are under a big Pacific Northwest high-pressure ridge through Thursday, with mostly sunny skies. By Friday and through this weekend (on track with last forecast) expect a huge mountain transformation with daily snow all the way through next week, heavy at times, as low pressure shifts to focus on the Pacific Northwest. More details are coming, but February is roaring in like a lion.

LONGER RANGE.

Frequent snowfalls are expected in early February through the 9th/ 10th, with few breaks, snowy through mid February and beyond. Next Monday (3 Feb), low pressure starts digging into a LOT more Pacific moisture for heavier snowfall across southern Idaho, the PNW, and Bogus Basin. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday January 23, 2024 -

A strong and cold but mostly moisture-starved system will brush the area on its way south tonight through Saturday morning. Mostly just some clouds and periodic snow flurries are expected (no accumulation). AFter this, on Saturday the low drops south and a high pressure ridge starts building in, with chilly temperatures continuing as we are on the east side of a big Pacific Northwest high-pressure ridge, with mostly sunny skies. By next Wednesday and Thursday the ridge shifts and we have a chance for some snow late next Thursday through that weekend (first of Feb).

LONGER RANGE.

Frequent snowfalls are possible in early February, first several days, then another ridge (no snow), alternating with periods of snow again into mid-February. Don't worry, the snow is coming back. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Friday January 17, 2024 -

Temperatures have remained cold and "snow-preserving" for Bogus Basin, so there remains a great base after some amazing snowfall thus far. Mostly sunny/ partly cloudy skies are expected through this weekend, with much colder temperatures as we are in a dry and unsettled pattern, low pressure east and high pressure west, some breeziness and wind chill at times the result, otherwise plenty of sun is expected. Some snow flurries are expected next Tuesday-Wednesday with a weak and mostly moisture-starved system brushing the area on its way southeast.

LONGER RANGE.

High pressure ridging (and tranquil snow-free weather) is mostly dominant through January 24 with mostly no snow and more sun (near to above average temperatures are expected mid-late next week. By around January 24-25, next weekend (Saturday snow) the jet stream starts cutting south into the west coast and delivering frequent snows to Bogus Basin and southern/ northern Idaho. There should be frequent significant snowfalls into early February. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday January 13, 2024 -

Mostly sunny skies and chilly temperatures are expected today under building high pressure ridging aloft. Valley temperature inversions are expected (colder below, warmer above) under a mostly dominant high-pressure ridge over the Northwest US pretty much all week, except for late Thursday when a shot of flurries/ very light snow is expected into Friday morning, no accumulation or 1 inch is expected at this point. The good news is that temperatures remain cold and "snow-preserving", while there remains a great base after some amazing early-season snowfall in November and December. The SnoTel site shows just under 5 feet of depth and good water equivalent (16.4") as of this morning. The weekend remains chilly/ cold with a dry northwest flow on the east side of the big high-pressure ridge. Mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies are also expected through the weekend.

LONGER RANGE.

High pressure ridging looks to be mostly dominant through January 23 with mostly no snow and more sun (near average temperatures are expected as colder shots of air move in at times. After January 23 the jet stream starts cutting south into the west coast and delivering frequent snows to Bogu Basin and southern/ northern Idaho. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday January 9, 2024 -

Today things are looking mostly sunny and chilly with northwest breezes, more sun but increasing clouds on a less-cold Friday, then then some snow moves in Friday afternoon through overnight, a quick shot of moderate snowfall and a STRONG cold front as temperatures drop fast Friday night (near 32F then dropping to single digits at 10,000 feet), then Saturday looks Much colder than Friday, with some 10-20mph northwest breezes for wind chill. Sunday looks cold and mostly cloudy (partly sunny) with some flurries at times, clearing out Monday morning then becoming sunny/ cold Monday under building high pressure ridging aloft. Next Tuesday and Wednesday (14-15 Jan) look sunny and not as cold, with valley temperature inversions (colder below, warmer above) under a strong high-pressure ridge.

LONGER RANGE.

High pressure ridging fights to be dominant through January 21, with low pressure systems moving through carrying refreshing shots of cold air and maybe snow to freshen up the slopes here and there. After January 21 the pattern may start cutting south into the west coast and delivering frequent snows to Bogu Basin and southern/ northern Idaho. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly