WEATHER DISCUSSION - Tuesday October 22, 2024 -

2 BIG STORMS NEXT WEEK, ALL ACROSS THE WESTERN US

Today expect some low pressure and rain/ snow to the north, with some colder air filtering in on a becoming mostly sunny Tuesday. Late day Wednesday we get a shot of light snow base to top as low pressure moves through fast, clearing out on a chilly Thursday. Friday continues the trend of mostly sunny skies, with milder temperatures on Friday. This weekend expect warming and mostly sunny skies under high pressure ridging. A strong and cold Gulf of Alaska system moves in with clouds and snow for base to top Bogus Basin and southern Idaho, also all across the western US next Monday and Tuesday (ski resort elevation snow). More low pressure, strong, is expected to follow the early next week storm, a Halloween snow storm for the western US, next Thursday and Friday.

LONGER RANGE.

After the first few days or so of November (tranquil, mostly sunny, mild, first few days of November for Bogus Basin), in early November stronger and colder low pressure is expected, with some MORE base to top snowfall on the radar. It is a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Sunday October 20, 2024 -

We have a brief ridge of high pressure across the area for sunny and warming weather today. Monday through Wednesday expect some low pressure and rain/ snow to the north, with some colder air filtering in, especially on a chilly but mostly sunny Tuesday. We warm up Wed-Thu under high pressure ridging, and with approaching low pressure, winds on Thursday, then cooler and more clouds on Friday. The trend is for clouds and rain/ snow Sunday and Monday, and more low pressure to follow, more frequently in early November.

LONGER RANGE.

In early November stronger and colder low pressure is expected, with some base to top snowfall on the radar. It is a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday October 17, 2024 -

We are on track to see snow fall with Cold temperatures today (16-18F at 10,000 feet), as we have some strong dynamics, good/ favorable upper-level winds, and enough moisture for some light accumulations base to top at Bogus Basin. Friday looks chilly and still a good day to test out the snow making equipment, with low wet-bulb temperatures in the chilly air. Friday through Saturday low pressure dips south and out of the area, with a mini ridge of high pressure across the area for sunny and warming weather on Saturday into Sunday. Monday through Wednesday expect mostly sunshine and milder temperatures, some low pressure and rain/ snow to the north, but no cold fronts ar "weather" for our region yet.

LONGER RANGE.

More low pressure and showers (more snow potential this time) move in Wednesday through Friday of next week (23-25 Oct). Milder air and more sunshine are possible after this, and may hang on for a few days or so (the warm-up), then the 31st and into early November, stronger and colder low pressure with some base to top snowfall is on the radar. It is looking like a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday October 14, 2024 -

Early week we have approaching strong and unseasonably cold low pressure but with mild and sunny weather out ahead of this. On Wednesday I am expecting our first real top to bottom snowfall for Bogus Basin and an "official" kick-off to a more wintry weather pattern overall. Snow starts top to bottom by Wednesday night after some mostly rain showers on Wednesday, then snow mainly through a COLD Thursday (14F at 10,000 feet), as we have some strong dynamics, good/ favorable upper-level winds, and enough moisture for accumulations base to top. Friday looks like a Great day to test out the snow making equipment, with low wet-bulb temperatures in the cold, mostly sub-freezing base-to-top air. Friday through Saturday low pressure dips south and out of the area, with a mini ridge of high pressure across the area for sunny and chilly, but warming weather on Saturday into Sunday.

LONGER RANGE.

Sunday and Monday the low that dropped south (over southern California, may be even snow for Big Bear and other SoCal mountain areas) moves back to the north and helps to pave the way for another low pressure system hitting the Northwest US Sunday night and Monday (21st). After next Monday we have a brief break, then more low pressure and showers (more snow potential this time) move in mid to late next week (23-25 Oct). Milder air and more sunshine are possible after this, and may hang on for a few days or so (the warm-up). It is looking like a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday October 10, 2024 -

Some clouds are expected to stream across the area at times today and Friday, with temperatures near to above average, and not a lot of wind expected. A low pressure area moves in nearby Saturday and Sunday, but we are only expecting a few cloud at times from this and mainly on Saturday. Early next week we have approaching stronger low pressure, and by next Wednesday we could see our first real top to bottom snowfall for Bogus Basin.

LONGER RANGE.

Next Wednesday through Friday looks cold and a bit wintry, with some snow expected, and mostly subfreezing temperatures from base to top. This should be a good time to test out and prep the snow guns. It is looking like a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Sunday October 06, 2024 -

Pretty much benign and warm through this coming week, with some change coming Thursday and Friday, and into the weekend, as larger scale low pressure moves into the northwest US, causing some showers for Bogus Basin.

LONGER RANGE.

High pressure will build in after the weekend of the 10th through the 13th, with warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies. That tranquil pattern should not hold very long, maybe 3 to 5 days, and then more low pressure will move in, this time we will likely see our first snowfall. It is looking like a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Tuesday October 01, 2024 -

Today through Thursday we have approaching low pressure (today), windy and cooler as low pressure moves by to the north (Wednesday), and cooler on Thursday (cold front), with windy and dry conditions Wednesday. Friday through the weekend high pressure ridging builds in, with warmer than average temperatures and less wind.

LONGER RANGE.

More frequent and stronger low pressure with better chances for snow on the mountain start moving through 10-15 October. It is looking like a La Nina year: Bogus Basin should start out with earlier and better natural snow coverage, receiving storms from out of the northwest, not southwest (for most) so most storms will see snowfall on the lighter to moderate side (not trending heavy), though on the positive side we see cooler than average temperatures, so snowfall should "stick" better in the early season, better base-building. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Saturday September 28, 2024 -

A weakening high pressure ridge causes a warm up (mostly warmer south wind flow) through today, then a low pressure system sends a dry trough through the area on Sunday with a few clouds and cooling of temperatures, dry air, as the main system stays to the north. Monday looks MUCH cooler and fall-like, mostly sunny, post cold front. Tuesday through Thursday we have a similar thing happen, approaching low pressure (Tuesday), windy and cooler as low pressure moves by to the north (Wednesday), and cooler next Thursday (cold front). It looks to remain dry though.

LONGER RANGE.

On track... Around the 5th, next weekend, we may see a top to bottom snowfall from a cold Gulf of Alaska low pressure system, as these are starting to look colder/ stronger. Brief high pressure, sunny skies, warming builds in after, then more frequent and stronger low pressure with better chances for snow on the mountain start moving through 10-15 October. It is looking like a La Nina year. More on that coming. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday September 23, 2024 -

Sunny and warmer weather is expected today through Wednesday, with upper-70's (90's in Boise) at the base of Bogus Basin on Wednesday under stronger high pressure ridging. A low pressure system moves in with potential isolated showers Wednesday night, but it is looking dry. Much cooler temperatures are expected Thursday post cold front. Friday and Saturday another high pressure ridge causes a warm up through Saturday, then a stronger low pressure system moves through on Sunday with showers and cooler weather.

LONGER RANGE.

High pressure ridging and clearing builds in the last day of September, first of October, with sunshine and mild temperatures. As usual in the fall, expect more alternating periods of chilly rain, higher mountain snow, and cloudiness, then mostly sunny (between storms), and progressively cooler temperatures overall. After the 5th or so, we may see a top to bottom snowfall from a cold Gulf of Alaska low pressure system, as these are starting to look colder/ stronger. It is looking like a La Nina year. More on that coming. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday September 19, 2024 -

Today we warm up a bit with mostly sunny skies, as low pressure moves by too far from the region to cause any "weather". Friday and this weekend still looks great with mild and a bit windy weather expected Friday as dry low pressure moves through to the north, and a weak cold front filters cooler air in for a cooler Saturday, still a great time for a hike or ride. Sunday looks mostly sunny and warmer with an approaching low pressure system. Late Sunday skies cloud up, and some isolated showers are possible then through overnight, under a mostly weak low pressure system moving in from the west. Early next week looks sunny and warmer under high pressure ridging. Mid week next week a low pressure system moves in with potential showers.

LONGER RANGE.

We will not likely see a shot of snow for the base to top with the 25 Sep system. High pressure ridging and clearing builds in afterward (last couple of day of Sep, early October) for a bit, with sunshine and mild temperatures. As usual in the fall, expect more alternating periods of chilly rain, higher mountain snow, and cloudiness, then mostly sunny (between storms), and progressively cooler temperatures overall. It is looking like a La Nina year. More on that coming. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday September 16, 2024 -

Today and Tuesday we see low-pressure moving through with showers expected (Tuesday looks more active with showers), no snow on the mountain, and snow levels dropping to near 9,000 feet mainly on Tuesday as temperatures remain in the 40's on the mountain all day, in a chilly rain. Wednesday and Thursday we warm up to near 60F with mostly sunny skies, as low pressure moves by too far from the region to cause much "weather". This weekend looks amazing with dry and warm weather expected, great time for a hike or ride!

LONGER RANGE.

Gulf of Alaska low pressure is expected to move in around the 25th of September (mid next week), with more alternating periods of chilly rain, higher mountain snow, and cloudiness, and mostly sunny (between storms). We may still see a shot of snow for the base to top with this 25 Sep system. High pressure ridging and clearing builds in afterward (last couple of day of Sep, early October) for a bit, with sunshine and mild temperatures. It looks like what we would call "summer" (with heat waves) is over however.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday September 12, 2024 -

As expected on Monday, there is "some snow in the 8,000 to 8,500 foot range Thursday as the cold core (near 26f at 10,000 feet) of the low passes through". A check of weather sensors between 8,100 and 9,000-ish feet indicate snowfall for these areas as the cold core of a Gulf of Alaska low-pressure system moves through central Idaho, with lowest snow levels there (just to the north of Bogus Basin). Today, expect clouds and cold rain through this early afternoon, then clearing out as low pressure starts to move off to the east. Temperatures remain in the 30's and 40's across the mountain. Friday and Saturday we see mostly sunny skies and more low pressure approaching for Sunday and next Monday, with showers expected, no snow on the mountain, but snow levels dropping to near 8,000 feet on Tuesday, in a chilly rain.

LONGER RANGE.

Gulf of Alaska low pressure is the most dominant feature the rest of next week and through the 24th/ 25th of September, with more alternating periods of chilly rain, higher mountain snow, and cloudiness, and mostly sunny (between storms). We may still see a shot of snow for the base to top this month. High pressure ridging and clearing builds in afterward for a bit, with sunshine and mild temperatures. It looks like summer may be over.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday September 09, 2024 -

Today we see another warm up into the mid-upper 70's as a low pressure system advances on the area. Tuesday looks a bit cooler. The incoming system looks fairly cold and with some moisture, for fall-like weather potential Wednesday but especially on Thursday, and we even expect some snow in the 8,000 to 8,500 foot range Thursday as the cold core (near 26f at 10,000 feet) of the low passes through. Friday and Saturday we see mostly sunny skies and more low pressure approaching for Sunday and next Monday, with showers expected, no snow (check the longer range outlook though...).

LONGER RANGE.

From the last forecast; "...around the 18th - 20th of September there are signs of a change-over to low pressure and cooler, windy weather, with some fall showers." <-- This is on track, as cold Gulf of Alaska low pressure, looking COLD (near 19-20f at 10,000 feet, for potential snow at Bogus Basin), moves through. This may be the first storm of the season to drop snow over most of the mountain. It looks like summer may be over for September, will be watching.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Friday September 06, 2024 -

Today is a warm transition to clouds and some showers, thunderstorms mainly Saturday night through Sunday morning as a not very significant low-pressure system moves in and across the area with enough energy and moisture to cause this. On Monday we warm up into the upper 70's as a low pressure system advances on the area. This one looks colder and with more moisture, for a fall-like weather potential next Wednesday and Thursday, but first, showers and maybe a thunderstorm move in on a cooler Tuesday. The forecast is dependent upon a low pressure system crossing the area Wednesday and Thursday, with some snow in the 8,500+ foot range.

LONGER RANGE.

We continue to alternate between highs in the 60's and 70's with sunny skies (high pressure), to showers and clouds with some low pressure, then around the 18th - 20th of September there are signs of a change-over to low pressure and cooler, windy weather, with some fall showers.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday September 02, 2024 -

Today moisture increases along with instability due to incoming low-pressure, for showers and thunderstorms any time morning through overnight (mostly late afternoon-evening through), plus noticeable cooling. on Tuesday the low-pressure system moves east and away, not as much of a "direct hit" as was expected, with cooler temperatures and departing shower potential (morning, isolated) as it is mostly to the north and moving away. By Wednesday and Thursday we have building high pressure again, for sunny skies and pleasant cool and dry weather to start. Friday we see a transition to clouds and some showers this weekend as a not very significant low-pressure system moves in and across the area.

LONGER RANGE.

Overall stronger high pressure ridging alternates with low pressure, mostly dry conditions, past mid September. Around the 18th - 20th of September there are signs of a change-over to low pressure and cooler, windy weather, with some fall showers.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Friday August 30, 2024 -

High pressure ridging builds in this weekend into Sunday, then on Sunday we see low 80's on the mountain before some thunderstorms develop as moisture is pulled in by an approaching low pressure system. On Monday moisture increases along with instability due to the incoming low, for showers and thunderstorms any time morning through overnight, plus noticeable cooling. Next Tuesday the low-pressure system moves right across the area, with much cooler temperatures and increased shower potential. This could be one that drenches the soil and trees / foliage nicely, helping with any fire activity in the region. By next Wednesday and Thursday we have building high pressure again, for sunny skies and pleasant cool and dry weather to start.

LONGER RANGE.

Overall stronger high pressure ridging is expected over the Northwest US, causing some heat waves, increased thunderstorms, and warmer than average temperatures later next week and onward past mid September, though around the 15th - 20th of September there are signs of a change-over to low pressure and cooler, windy weather, with some fall showers.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Monday August 26, 2024 -

Warmer today and into Tuesday with strong low pressure moving in up north. This low is unusually cold (23F at 10,000 feet at the core of the low), and SNOW is expected down to 6,000 feet in the Selkirk Mountains of North Idaho, and lower elevations (resort elevations in BC and maybe at Schweitzer Mountain north Idaho) late Tuesday-Wednesday, with wind and isolated showers for Bogus Basin, and much cooler temperatures on Wednesday. .

Thursday through the weekend expect less wind, plenty of sun, and a great time to get out and hit the trails as temperatures warm up.

LONGER RANGE.

The first week of September (next week) expect some subtropical moisture to be pulled into the region for PM thunderstorms/ showers in the area. Temperatures look seasonal to above average. We will have to watch for some tropical moisture moving up into the southwest deserts and being funneled into Bogus Basin and the region as we move into September especially (increased tropical storms/ hurricanes the culprit), otherwise we may see strong high pressure over the Northwest US with a heat wave developing next week and onward.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Thursday August 22, 2024 -

Somewhat windy conditions today, warmer, dry, with approaching low pressure... (on track from the longer range forecast)- FRIDAY and SATURDAY strong Gulf of Alaska low pressure with 24-26F 10,000 foot temperatures at its core (in the 30's for the upper mountain at Bogus Basin) crosses southwest Idaho and causes some showers and maybe a thunderstorm for Bogus Basin Friday and Saturday, plus some snow above 8,000 feet on Saturday across Idaho and western Montana.

Low pressure exits on a fall-feeling Sunday, then warmer and dry Monday and Tuesday. We may see some wind and cooling toward mid next week with a potentially cold low pressure system dropping in out of a drier northwest Canada.

LONGER RANGE.

It looks like high pressure ridging builds in across the area with warming temperatures Sunday (Aug 25) and moving forward, with some low pressure/ wind/ cooling/ chance for showers breaks every 3-7 days mainly in early September. We will have to watch for some tropical moisture moving up into the southwest deserts and being funneled into Bogus Basin and the region as we move into September especially (increased tropical storms/ hurricanes the culprit).



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Sunday August 18, 2024 -

Temperatures fluctuate a bit, mostly remaining in the 70's through Thursday, with low pressure offshore remaining offshore. The airmass remains dry for the area, and breezy to windy conditions are expected daily due to a pressure gradient (high pressure east, low pressure west).

By FRIDAY and the WEEKEND (24-25 Aug) fairly strong Gulf of Alaska low pressure with 24-26F 10,000 foot temperatures at its core (could be in the 30's for the upper mountain at Bogus Basin, after the core of the low crosses mainly Tahoe/ Northern California) crosses southwest Idaho and causes some showers and maybe a thunderstorm for Bogus Basin Friday and Saturday mainly.

LONGER RANGE.

It looks like high pressure ridging builds in across the area with warming temperatures Sunday (Aug 25) and moving forward, with some low pressure/ wind/ cooling/ chance for showers breaks every 3-7 days into September. We will have to watch for some tropical moisture moving up into the southwest deserts and being funneled into Bogus Basin and the region as we move into September especially (increased tropical storms/ hurricanes the culprit.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Tuesday August 13, 2024 -

Low pressure is moving across the Northwest US, with some showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through the area today, not a lot of rain, but welcome nonetheless. Lightning, of course, will be a part of the mix today, in cooler temperatures.

On Wednesday we one low pressure system departing and another approaching, leaving a brief ridge of high pressure for mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures, drier air. On Thursday expect more showers and thunderstorms in the area, with potential for some decent rain, but coming in with the lightning as usual.
FRIDAY and the WEEKEND look dry and mostly sunny, becoming warm in the 80's, really nice as the biking season is winding down.

LONGER RANGE.

It looks like high pressure ridging builds in across the area with warming temperatures, and a low-pressure system approaching the Pacific Northwest, with potential showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. After the 20th, low pressure starts to affect the area with some showers in the area and major cooling of temperatures on gusty winds.



WEATHER DISCUSSION - Saturday August 10, 2024 -

Low pressure is mostly dry to our north but sweeping through, and some strong dynamics act on limited moisture for showers this morning just to the north, which will become scattered showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon/ evening. Some heavy showers are possible, and we see heavy showers now just to the north (0630L Saturday).

Sunday and Monday 1 low pressure system moves away and another drops into the northwest US, with dry and mostly sunny skies, some winds. Tuesday and Wednesday we see stronger low pressure dominating the area, but mostly dry, and causing some wind and some clouds but mostly sun, noticeable cooling of the air. Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm needs to be watched for.

LONGER RANGE.

It looks like high pressure ridging builds in across the area with warming temperatures, even a heat wave building through the 20th. After the 20th, low pressure starts to affect the area with some showers in the area and major cooling of temperatures on gusty winds.