Thursday Sep 14, 2023 - Today through Saturday expect high pressure ridging to build in across the region, with some really nice 70+F temperatures (peaking to near near 80F for Bogus Basin) expected under mostly sunny skies. By Sunday and Monday expect increasing winds as strong low pressure prepares to move in and linger across the inland Northwest US with some "first snows" of the season expected down to between 6,000 and 8,000 feet (6,200 to 7,800 at Bogus Basin with -3 to -7c/ 27f to 19f, 10,000 foot temperatures overhead) across the Northwest US and especially northern Rocky Mountains, for the first higher-mountain snowfall of the season, could be 6 inches or more of snow for some areas.

Next Tuesday and mainly Wednesday-Friday (21-23 Sep) expect some higher mountain snow, down to between 6,000 and 8,000 feet, as GOA (Gulf of Alaska) low pressure affects Idaho, WA, OR, MT mountain areas of the Northwest US with soil cooling showers, rains and some snow, colder air, including the northwest Montana and western Wyoming areas, through next weekend (24-25 Sep). High pressure ridging and a warm-up back into the 70's is likely for Bogus Basin the following last week of September.

LONGER RANGE :

We will likely see "heat waves" into early and through mid October, mixed in with periods of strong winds and some rain as Pacific storms affect the Northwest US. The ocean says El Nino likely now through this winter. What does that mean for Bogus Basin? The range of possibilities are huge, so it comes down largely to intuition. At this time I am thinking that locals will be happy with a near or better than average snow season (I am thinking good early-season base-building snowfalls, starting off early (later October), as colder than average conditions are likely (good pre-season snow making). Intuition is the most valuable factor in long-range forecasting, and I will post any further thoughts (and any back-up data) on this winter when they become clear. Meteorologist/ Chris Manly


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